Know Your Enemy – May Edition

6-8-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

National League Central Standings
	Win	Loss
Milwaukee Brewers	34	28	⬆️
Pittsburgh Pirates	32	29	⬇️
Cincinnati Reds	29	33	⏫
Chicago Cubs	26	35	⬆️
St. Louis Cardinals	26	37	⏬

The month of May saw several teams in the NL Central face some tough times, thus leading to a shakeup in the standings. While the month was forgettable for Pittsburgh, no one really took the bulls by the horn this month. Cincinnati did really put on a solid performance & St. Louis showed great resolve bouncing back into the realm of the living. It is becoming clearer that this divisional ride is going to be pretty interesting!

Let’s dive in to some team specific overviews:

Milwaukee Brewers 

Brewers had a more marginal month of May than April. Which, in combination with Pittsburgh’s own struggles, has led to an almost wide-open division still. Milwaukee still boasts a strong chance at winning the division. The team has a good mix of veterans and young additions. Many of the young additions are currently facing hard times, but such is life for a rookie. Make the adjustments or you won’t survive.

Pittsburgh and Milwaukee square off 4 times in June. A 3 game set in Milwaukee on 6/16-6/18 and once on the cusp of July in Pittsburgh on 6/30.

Lineup

William Contreras – May has seen the young backstop hit a truly staggeringly unlucky streak at the plate posting a slash of .197/.293/.424. Now, this slash line is buoyed by a comical .196 BABIP even though he has barrelled the ball and hit it hard at a pretty solid clip this month. No denying it has been a BAD month of May at the dish, but it is reasonable to expect that to turn around in due time.

Owen Miller – Miller has been the anti-Contreras this month. The Brew Crew’s premier producer of May with a 174 wRC+ and .433 wOBA. Now, unlike Contreras, it is unlikely for Miller to continue this deep into the season given his profile being more of below-average to fringe MLB hitter. That being said – Miller was scorching hot this month and some of the underlying metrics support him being a useful player at the major league level. 

Christian Yelich – Gone are the days of MVP production, but Yelich has settled into the arc of being a rock solid across the board player. May treated him well with 4 homers, 6 steals, and a slash line of .293/.370/.488. Yelich should continue this sort of production as the season marches on, and may even see some more run production as his contact quality, ability to barrel, and hard hit % is consistently high.

Pitching

Corbin Burnes – Burnes hurled 30 IP in May taking home a record of 1-3. Obviously the team is hoping to secure more Ws when their ace is on the bump, but the good news is that Burnes performed quite well other than one rough outing against the defending champion Astros. Burnes has been uncharacteristically wild in 2023 and it appears to be translating to less dominant outings than what we have grown accustomed to seeing. But his chunk of starts in May have seen a slight return to something closer to his 2022 and beyond form.

Adrian Houser – Houser was a man possessed in May through his first 4 starts of the season. Any pitcher that can shut down Tampa Bay & Houston in back to back starts is feeling it. Track record says he won’t keep this up, but there is no denying his month of May being wonderful. 

Freddy Peralta – Freddy had a pretty poor month of May. No other way to say it. Peralta had a good start in Coors Field and against the Dodgers, but the rest of his month was largely forgettable. His results have been a mixed bag in 2023. Some things are going well, he is inducing pretty weak contact & suppressing low hard hit rates, so things could still turn around. The talent is there, just struggling with inconsistency.

Minor League Check In

Eric Brown Jr. – The 2022 first round pick has really begun to come into his own in May. Brown has an across the board tool set that is anchored by the hit tool and his speed. There is power in his profile but it comes more from quality of contact than via big, raw power. This is exactly how you’d like to see a more advanced college bat perform in A+ ball, rocking the level in May to the tune of a .412 wOBA & 158 wRC+.

Jeferson Quero – Quero is quickly establishing himself as an “elite” catching prospect. In AA at the tender age of 20, he has slugged 7 homers, 4 doubles, and knocked in 17 runs this month. This kid has a bright future indeed.

Jacob Misiorowski – Misiorowski was a 2022 2nd round pick with electric stuff. He is a stuff over command archetype, but in 2023 he is bulldozing A ball. He is technically at an age appropriate level, but the real test for him will begin as he moves up the ladder, likely at AA. He is still a little wild, but the pure filth of his arsenal is over awing the level. He’s one to watch closely as he advances. Could be the next in the line of Brewers pitching development successes. 

Chicago Cubs

Overall a poor month for the Cubbies. Overall a poor offensive month in Chicago seeing them finish 24/30 in offensive fWAR. Losing the resurgent Cody Bellinger did not help their cause as the team was forced to play about half of their games without him, but there were enough other issues at play for us not to assume Belli’s absence is a huge factor overall. 

Chicago did finish the month taking 2 of 3 from Tampa Bay, so perhaps there are better days ahead in June. It should be noted that the Pirates & Cubs will square off 6 times in June, so we will get a good look at them this month.

Lineup 

Christopher Morel – In the April edition I highlighted Morel and warned that he was coming up soon. Called up on May 9th, Morel has gone on to rip 9 homers in just 17 games. He is big, strong, and fast. But he also whiffs and K’s a ton. The 42.2% whiff rate, 37.7% chase rate, and 36.6% K rate will cap the ultimate upside in Morel’s game. As we’ve seen though he is as tooled up as just about anyone in the game & when he is locked in, it is a sight to behold.

Trey Mancini/Eric Hosmer – The Cubs finally said vaya con dios to Hosmer, DFA’ing him as they needed to. It would not surprise me to see Mancini given his walking papers and/or dealt off for whatever they can get, even if it means selling a prospect with him. 

Seiya Suzuki – After a delayed start to his season Suzuki is back and looking healthy. A strong May has it looking as if Suzuki will establish himself as a really good professional hitter. The further removed from his oblique injury, the better he is looking, finishing May with a .402 wOBA and 154 wRC+.

Pitching

Justin Steele – Steele keeps on proving his breakout to be real. Aside from getting absolutely poleaxed on May 26th by Cincinnati, even this start he posted a FIP of 1.10 despite his game ERA being 12.27, he has continued to pitch very well. Steele suppresses hard contact, induces weak contact, & limits home runs as well as anyone in the league. Good times keep rolling for Steele.

Marcus Stroman – Stroman has been rock solid in May. A ground ball machine, his sinker is one of the best in the league. In his career Stroman has been a guy that has outperformed his peripherals in part due to his repertoire. It looks like he is going to continue this in 2023.

Kyle Hendricks – Chicago welcomed back their long time lineup fixture this month. Hendricks turned in a decent enough debut and should be what he is going forward. 

Drew Smyly – Update is more of the same from April. Smyly just keeps rolling along creating poor contact against & limiting hard hits. As long as he remains healthy, Smyly will keep turning in quality returns.

Mark Leiter Jr. – Continuing a tremendous season, absolutely dominating with his split-finger fastball. Overall a great relief pitcher. 

Minor League Check In

Moises Ballesteros – One of the more under the radar prospects at the moment. Ballesteros is going to have the hype train depart the station with a strong June showing. His month of May has been a bit underwhelming, but overall the young backstop is showing some encouraging foundations. One of the rare young players that draws BB at a higher rate than he Ks, the approach being so sound gives him a really tantalizing base to build on.

James Triantos – Triantos, a 2021 2nd round pick, made his season debut in early May and he is living up to the reputation as a strong hit tool, strong plate approach prospect. Almost two and a half years young for the A+ level, Triantos may just be too advanced for the competition. AA should be a tougher proving ground for someone with such a polished skill set.

Ben Brown – Brown is likely the next man up when the time comes for the Cubs to need pitching reinforcements. Outside of one really bad start in AAA, Brown looks the part, piling up 36 Ks in 24 IP. The arsenal is bolstered by a strong slider that should play immediately. Just a matter of time until he is called up.

St. Louis Cardinals

Things could not have gone much worse in April for the Red Birds. This May they have really begun to show some signs of life. I was not one to pronounce them DOA after April, and they aren’t out of the woods yet, but this team has the talent to remain in the mix. 

The Cardinals and Pirates open the month of June with a series in PNC.

Lineup

Nolan Gorman – Nolan Gorman has all the looks of being “A Dude.” Presently Gorman is being deployed as a strong-side platoon hitter, but he is making the most of it by posting pretty ludicrous production numbers: .394 wOBA/152 wRC+.The breakout looks to be mostly for real, but he does still have some whiff to his game that could cause periodic struggles.

Nolan Arenado – After a truly dreadful start to the season, Arenado got back to career norms in May. In the month he has slugged 7 homers, driven in 21 runs, and his monthly wOBA & wRC+ are about back to being in line with his career norms. He’s still got it.

Lars Nootbar – A breakout player in 2022, Nootbar was getting a lot of helium in the pre-season and through the World Baseball Classic. He followed that up with a poor start to the season and then an injury. Since returning to full time action, Nootbar seems to be getting back on track and appears to be locking himself in as an across the board quality ball player.

Pitching

Miles Mikolas – Mikolas had a very good month of May. He tossed 38 innings across 6 starts, all of which were quality. After being a disaster in April, Mikolas got back closer to what he is expected to do and then some. His May line featured a 1.98 ERA/0.95 WHIP/28 K/6 BB.

Ryan Helsley – The theme with most of the Cardinals has been “after a poor April.” That continues here with the fireballing reliever. Helsley tossed 13 innings across 11 appearances in May. He racked up 3 saves, 3 wins, & 1 hold. Helsley had a lousy April as his wildness led to some bad outings. The wildness didn’t really change at all, still around 11.3% BB rate, but his results were significantly better. He is a premium back-end of the bullpen arm, but with his command issues things can get weird at any time.

Matthew Liberatore – Liberatore got the call after a super successful AAA run. It seems like the kid will get a chance to stick with the big club, but the Birds have already used him (disastrously) out of the bullpen once, so his role is kind of TBD. He did make two starts however and has looked solid enough, but unspectacular. Notably his fastball velocity has jumped about 1.5 ticks from its average in 2022. He now sits around 95.2 and that kind of increase should open up higher levels of achievement for a guy like LIberatore. 

Minor League Check In

Ivan Herrera – WIth the Cardinals bizarre decision to relegate Willson Contreras to DH (maybe?) the Cards may have to clear the deck for Herrera to take over the catcher position. In May Herrera walked more than he struck out posting an 18.2/16.9 BB/K and produced at a prolific rate with a .488 wOBA & a 184 wRC+. He had a brief taste of the majors in 2022, but he disappointed overall. At just 23 years old he is certainly a candidate to be the next long-term catching fixture.

Michael McGreevy – Performing well at AAA McGreevy seems poised to get a shot at the majors in 2023. He is pretty young for the level, so seeing him have success is great. His ultimate upside at the major league level is TBD. Does not look particularly exciting, but he is quite young.

Jordan Walker – Well, that could have gone better. The MLB debut was not THAT bad, truth be told. He could have been given a longer leash, but he simply wasn’t. Upon his demotion Walker has struggled. Not horrifically, but he certainly hasn’t been knocking the door back down. Is he still an “elite” prospect, I’d say yes. But as we all know, not all prospects hit the ground running. Walker will be back and I believe in the skill set long term.

Cincinnati Reds

While the Reds spent most of April & May in last place, they are definitely outperforming their expectations early on by virtue of a rather tumultuous divisional landscape. A good deal of their performance is owed to a handful of solid contributions from the offense that many expected little from. Some of this can be chalked up to playing in the second best park for offensive production, to be sure. But you have to give them some credit, through two months the team has shown some promise for the Reds faithful. As you can see the month of May has been a bit rough for starting pitching, but the bullpen is flashing good returns:

May fWAR Ranking:

Pitching – 2.1 fWar (22/30)

SP – 1.0 fWAR (26/30)

RP – 1.1 fWAR (11/30)

Hitting – 3.2 fWAR (18/30)

Cincinnati also has the benefit of some very exciting young players that are performing like gangbusters at AAA, the first of whom has arrived already in middle infielders, Matt McLain. Many expect his AAA  bashbrothers, Christian Encarnacion-Strand & mega-talent Elly De la Cruz to join soon. While it is important to realize that there will be an adjustment period for youngsters when making the leap, these kids all look like Major League players with Elly DLC looking like a singularly gifted talent. 

Let’s jump in to a few individual players and see what has been happening in May

Lineup

Matt McLain – The former UCLA Bruin decimated AAA and in his 14 game MLB debut, he is carrying this success over. McLain had made huge strides in 2023 to improve his approach & this change was evident in AAA & so far it has stuck in the majors where he is running below MLB average whiff & chase rates. While he will see regression due in large part to a very high BABIP, the league will also adjust to him now that there is more of a book on him. But there is no denying the results so far & they are mostly backed up with good enough underlying numbers (.268 xBA & .328 xwOBA). 

Spencer Steer – Steer had a great May blasting 5 homers & scoring and driving in 16 runs this month. Also notable here is that Steer has reduced his K% by 5 whole percent while maintaining his BB%. Steer’s May triple slash is an impressive .311/.366/.553. Steer has the look of a well rounded hitter that will have his power/production play up in the friendly confines of GABP. His only real knock is that he is almost truly positionless posting poor defensive returns almost everywhere he has played in 2023. 

Jonathan India – Suffice it to say, but, Jonathan India is back. Whatever the injury in 2022 sapped him of, India has reclaimed it. He is impacting the ball with career high average EVs, cutting his K%, and appears to have his career back on track. While the power isn’t playing up as much as in his 2021 rookie campaign, I expect that to tick up as the season wears on. Just a very solid bat and a top of the order fixture.

Pitching

Hunter Greene – Green tossed 28 innings in May & 22 of them were not particularly good. His final start, however, was pretty wicked. This last start saw him take a no-hitter 6 innings and post an 11/2 K/BB against the Cubs. While May was not particularly kind to Greene, the season as a whole shows that Greene has that tantalizing upside still. Huge K potential with a monster arsenal, but the downsides are still showing too with him surrendering hard contact pretty regularly despite the big time fastball velocity. The sky is still the limit given his age, but there is work to be done before anyone knows his final form.

Alexis Diaz – Diaz the Younger is a bad man. Alexis is doing his best imitation of big brother Edwin in 2023 posting a mind-blowing 49.5% K% on the season. Just a two pitch pitcher, Diaz makes hay on the strength of a Slider/Four Seam combo that are both nearly impossible to hit combining to give him a .196 wOBA good for 5th best in baseball. His only real wart is command. But it almost doesn’t matter with how good the rest of the profile is. As dominant as they come.

Ben Lively – Called up on May 11th, Lively accumulated 17 quality IP for the Reds. Benefiting from some “lucky” with a 92.6% strand rate & a very low BABIP, Lively is a prime regression candidate. But the underlying numbers support the notion that he might be a quality arm nonetheless. In his small debut his Four Seam/Slider have proven hard to square up, giving him a strong claim to remain in the Reds rotation going forward.

Minor League Check In

Elly De la Cruz – Most folks are pretty well aware of Elly DLC by now, but if you aren’t, be prepared. The man is a freak. The month of May has seen him cut his K rate down to 21.1% and his BB rate jump to 15.8%. Combine that with the fact that he posts absolute monster-tier EVs. Earlier this month he hit a ball from the left side 118.8 mph & one from the right side 116.6 mph. Oh, he also possesses near top-of-the scale speed. Assuming his gains in plate discipline are something he can replicate long term, he’s got “best offensive player on the planet” kind of upside.  Editor’s Note: Elly was just called up to the bigs and is already making an impact.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES is yet another big boy that bashes baseballs. Similar to Elly, CES has approach problems. However, unlike De la Cruz, CES has not made the same kind of adjustments. He sort of is what he is approach wise, lots of swings & lots of whiffs. But, it is the classic slugger’s profile and he should mash dingers. Just going to have to take the good with the bad when he gets to town. He will likely be a player that can go on epic runs of hot hitting.

This wraps up a brief tour of the NL Central’s May happenings. As always, I tried to key in on a few standouts or let downs, if there are any that stood out to you, dear reader, please do not hesitate to comment!

June should help provide some opportunities for separation within the division, the Bucs play 13 divisional opponents alone. Next month’s check-in should be a lot of fun. Until next time around.