Hump Day Pirates Q&A

6-14-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates are having a weird season. Maybe a bit early to be kinda in it, maybe not considering what they’ve lost this season while still anchoring the division. Either way, this piece is all about what’s on your minds, not mine.

Let’s go!

Question 1

Who are the trade candidates to acquire some starting pitching? – Brian Croasmun

OK Brian, but you asked for it.

Nobody is going to like hearing the types of names it would require to get real pitching help, especially if it helps beyond 2023. Truth is though, you probably are talking about a guy who is already on the MLB team like Bae, Marcano, Castro, or a top ten prospect type like Peguero or Gonzales. Maybe even a Lonnie White type, so far away yet so highly touted, maybe you can get something with him as part of your package.

It certainly won’t be someone so enamored by Canaan Smith-Njigba or Cal Mitchell they’d give up much of note.

The only other real overt commodity they have to deal in my mind, relievers. Holderman, Moreta, Bednar, Hernandez, they have some big arms, and you might be able to make them the feature with a lottery pick type to get some borderline MLB pitching, or top level prospect.

Point is, if you want something of value, you have to give something of value.

Seattle is a good team to look to. They have a ton of pitching, some of which they’ve simply been impatient with, yet they need position player help. Plausible, Miami too, but neither want Austin Hedges, lol.

Question 2

Any time table on bringing Henry Davis up? – Shawn Wheeler

Put plainly, when they think he’s ready. Super 2 is over, by all accounts, and as I’ve said pretty much all season, that’s not what this one in particular is about. Before the season I projected he’d be a cup of coffee call up this year, his bat has opened a door for that to be a BIG cup, but I still don’t see it before late July/August.

Bottom line, he has to catch, and as of right now, he doesn’t do it quite to the level they want to see. Yes, yes, he can play right field, but for whom? You sitting Jack, Bae, Joe, Cutch? Endy will already be eating from 1B, 2B, RF, C.

Barring injury or a complete reversal of thought on which one of these two comes up first, I’ll stick with Late July/August.

Question 3

With this season being a lot more positive than any imagined, my worry now is how the Reds have gained ground and looking to call up more studs in their system. Which NL Central team makes the first move (trade)? – Shannon Gregory

The Reds are calling up kids, but they’ll still not go anywhere this year. If they could find a buyer for Votto, they’d move him in a heartbeat I’d wager, but aside from that, knowing they have to keep building with these young pitchers, I don’t see them doing much this year. Now in the offseason, sure.

The actual question part of your question, no clue on the surface so I’ll go this route.
The Reds – Too young to know what’s going to stick or even what they need quite yet.
The Brewers – Will wait as long as possible. They will either send out some huge pieces or they’ll hang around and try to make this last run at it count with guys like Burnes.
The Cubs – Just a mix of guys. Aside from the true prospects and big money FA types like Swanson and Happ, who knows what, when or whom.
The Cardinals – Super far back, I suspect they’ll just hope their youngsters start playing like they hoped, and for guys like Carlson to get healthy. They need pitching, but much like the Pirates, it’ll take someone who plainly doesn’t suck and the willingness to bench a guy they might not want to.

Question 4

Bryan Reynolds, home runs down, doubles up. Some power loss. Is there a nagging injury? – Mark Graham

Hi Mark, not that I know of, and I’ve asked. It’s hard to ascribe something like “power loss” to a guy like Reynolds, because he hits them in bunches. This is because everything about his success is about timing.

When his timing is where he wants it, everything comes together, his bat essentially turns into a magic wand. When it’s not, he struggles to get more than a spray chart of singles and speed aided doubles.

Always play the long game with him. by the end of the season he’ll be around 25 or so, just like he usually is.

Question 5

What moves can the pirates do to fortify thier bullpen? They have had some struggles as of late. rob zastryzny hasn’t been good, I’d like to see cam aldred or cody Bolton or other guys get more time up here. Just my thoughts and wondering what yours are. – Billy Tissue

Well Billy, I personally think your concerns are misplaced. The bullpen isn’t a problem right now really. They have 4 members who qualify for the ERA lead as we speak after all. Bolton has looked awful in his time up here Sir, I can’t see how they could have kept him up here. Aldred is starting, largely because the team needs that much worse.

Guys like Rob, honestly, they only matter when the team uses them in a way that doesn’t match their skillset. Most nights, this team has 5 or even 6 choices and they’re all good.

They have better than you mentioned in AAA, but honestly, they don’t need them and I wouldn’t push them.

Question 6

With the price of everything going up including quality players at the deadline, do you think the pirates should stand pat at the trade deadline if they remain within striking distance? I don’t want to see another lo lopsided trade for a guy like Archer. While there are needs to fill I feel like the price will be very steep given the amount of teams that will likely be buyers – Gary Burrito

I don’t think they can afford to stand pat, regardless of in or out. They don’t have enough starting pitching to get through the season, in my opinion. I don’t think it’s negotiable to add a starter.

We really must stop talking about the Archer trade like the guilty parties are still here lurking in the bushes to jump out and do it again. I also have no idea how you know what the market will look like at the deadline. We haven’t had a single measurable trade yet. To know that, we’d have to know what’s available (we don’t), what teams want in return (nope, don’t know that either), and how many teams want the same stuff (absolutely don’t know that yet).

When you look at a trade, it’s not about did we win or did we lose the deal, it’s did what I got help me the way I hoped it would. That’s it.

Every trade isn’t Archer, in fact, the only reason you remember it is because it was such an outlier.

This team is absolutely going to trade prospects for MLB help before this is over. Embrace it. They’re not only growing players, they’re growing commodities.

Question 7

In the MLB draft between the 1st and 2nd round and the 2nd and 3rd round they have comp picks. How do the decide who gets these picks and the order of them. The Pirates have one between the 2nd and 3rd round this year, the 67th pick. Last year we picked between the 1st and 2nd round and got Thomas Harrington. – Don Jacobsen

The ten lowest-revenue teams and the teams from the ten smallest markets are eligible and this is typically less than 20 teams in contention, some will qualify for both. All of these teams are assigned a pick, either in Competitive Balance Round A (Between Round 1 and 2) or Round B (Between Round 2 and 3).

Now, teams who get a Round A pick, they’ll also receive more money in the international bonus pool. The minimum is $4.75 million, but if you pull a round A comp pick, you’ll be awarded $5.25 Million instead which you are allowed to spend. A round B comp pick will give you $5.75 million in the international pool.

Comp picks can be traded, but only by the awarded team. So if the Pirates traded theirs, they’d keep the bonus pool money and the receiving team is not permitted to move the comp pick.

It’s also how they got Ke’Bryan Hayes, and even longer back, Connor Joe. Carmen Mlodzinski is another. It’s a great pick to get.

Question 8

Are the Pirates the best team in the division? – Scott Nelson

As we sit here on June 14th, yes.

Next question….

OK, so I know you mean will they win it. I think they have as good a chance as anyone, but I don’t like the starting pitching depth Scott. They’re a Rich Hill Blister away from some really embarrassing stuff happening. I won’t even discuss what a Keller injury would do.

On paper, the Cardinals are still the best team in this division, but paper doesn’t win baseball games.

Question 9

So the Cardinals are now 14 games under .500 and 8.5 games out of any playoff spot. Is this finally the year they give up at the deadline? How will this effect the Pirates this season? – Adam Yarkovsky

I mean, obviously it effects the Pirates because the most talent rich roster in the division is playing like they can’t pull anything together. I don’t think they have anything they HAVE to do, but Jordan Montgomery will be a real decision. He’s in his Arb 4 year, and he gets Free agency next season. Thing is though Yark, they don’t have a ton of that.

Also, man they have been destroyed in the outfield by injury, that could help a bit too. Thing is, they don’t have their pitcher whisperer anymore, and they lost their catcher who actually cared about playing the position.

Transition from mainstays is super hard, especially when they’ve been your heart, pitching coach, leader type.

I think they’ll be paralyzed by the division.

Question 10

Realistically do you think Preister gets a call up eventually this season or would you prefer that he stay in AAA the entire season? – John @JGor492

I’d prefer him look like a pitcher I think could succeed at this level for a month, then I’d call him up.

Realistically, I see them struggling to avoid calling him up this year whether he’s earned it or not. At some point he’s going to be a better bet than a guy like Aldred.

Quinn has real work to do, and to his credit, he’s doing it. As it stands right now, AAA can’t hit his curve, MLB will. He can’t place his fastball, MLB will destroy him for that. He’s super talented, but learning to be the type of pitcher he looks like he might be, well that takes time.

I rarely give definitive statements like it’s the only opinion that matters, but in this case, he isn’t ready, and he’s too important to call before you feel he is.

Question 11

Do you think there’s a chance that the leader of this division ends up having a losing record? – BigBlaze59

I mean, sure, but it’s much more likely someone improves themselves enough to avoid it. I honestly think it’s more possible in the AL Central this year, that’s a collection of teams that either don’t want to eat salary, won’t eat salary and have a bunch of tough decisions on vets they do have.

Question 12

Can we get people to stop complaining about call ups? How do we manage that??? – David McBride

Ha! Never!

I mean the easy answer Dave is to stop having holes at the MLB level. No matter how much it’s preached, good numbers in AA or AAA will never be seen as happening a solid couple levels below MLB by the masses. Oh, they’ll say it, cause they know they have to but in reality, they don’t believe it.

I’d also say there is an entire underbelly culture that quite literally only follow the team to tell fans how bad or unfair they are. (Every franchise has these folks BTW) They’ll always have someone who is being unfairly kept back.

I hate to be jaded but in close to 40 years of fandom, I can’t remember a season where Jesus himself wasn’t stuck in AAA.

Question 13

What is it about baseball that makes it so much harder than other sports to get to the top level? – Mark Witzberger

There is so much more to this answer than you’d believe. Lets take them point by point.

1. It’s very hard to survive in MLB if you’re only good at one thing. This immediately is asking for a level of competency that most humans simply won’t have.
2. There isn’t a factor that gets you a chance just because of genetics. Be huge and you could get a shot in the NFL and NBA even without refined skills for instance. Baseball simply doesn’t work like that.
3. The separation from the top league and the closest competitive league before draft is like a different sport, I mean they even use a different bat. Hockey is similar, but hockey has several options for guys to gain experience before draft time.
4. Jobs are doled out 26 at a time, if you put everyone who ever played the MLB game, even just a pinch hit or 1/3 of an inning in Yankee Stadium, it still wouldn’t be a sell out.
5. Even 5 tool players have to be willing to work their ass off to make those tools matter.

You could probably add to this list pretty easily, but this question my friend, this is why I never run around calling guys like Chase DeJong a bum. It’s just too hard to get there, even harder to stick.

The NCAA game to the NFL is at least close to the AAA to MLB jump I’d say. Well, in the NFL (Much of this is from a piece by SB Nation), from 96-2016, 16% of draft choices didn’t even play for the team that drafted them. 37% Considered useless, Maybe it’s not quite as lopsided as we suppose.

Question 14

What are your thoughts about AAA experience for budding prospects? Yesterday we debated Jason Mackey’s post that highlighted how little time Endy & H. Davis had in AAA. Several guys mentioned players who had very little AAA or jumped from the lower levels. Examples were Jason Kendall, Jack Wilson, Jose Guillen, Bryan Reynolds, Suwinski. There were several others. – Jim Maruca

I saw these debates too.

The Kendall, Wilson, Guillen examples, man, that was a time when they were completely gutting the team. They brought up every kid with a pulse, some worked, some didn’t.

This team, well, it’s just not the same. I’m not sure what motivation Mackey had for putting that out aside from the fact nobody seems to be willing to just let it play out a bit, and are ignoring quite a bit of evidence that at the very least, Endy hasn’t been dominating like he had been on the way here.

Positions matter for one thing, Kendall was seen as a guy who could hit and field the position, but he supposedly had power they wanted to get to emerge. Glad they stopped waiting, cause it never came. This same thing played out with Ji-Hwan Bae. They thought he had a bunch more power, now, maybe they’re seeing its not worth keeping him down to find out.

We all picture these old farts sitting around with sheets of paper watching these guys with a frown on their face and a cigar in their mouth, checking off boxes. In reality, it’s more about knowing what will or won’t get exposed at the MLB level.

Checking boxes happens, but it’s more about building up the defense against the easy to forecast method of attack they’ll face. Sometimes it’s about how they and their short comings will hurt other players on the team, or if you’re in the middle of on boarding 7 or 8 1st and 2nd year players, quite frankly, maybe you think you have enough kids for one roster.

There is certainly value in AAA. But to assume everyone needs it, or everyone should have a similar path is to simply ignore the reality of the game.

Let’s take Bryan Reynolds. He got called up because he was hitting in AA, and he was old for the level, and the MLB team was destroyed by injury. He stayed because he hit, and he never stopped hitting, and he forced Clint Hurdle who absolutely didn’t want him to play every day to play him every day. They didn’t care about his service time because quite frankly, they didn’t think it’d matter, he’d be sent right back right?

Was he ready? I mean, through the prism of history, hell yeah! But at the time, people, fans, “experts” liked Jason Martin better. I’ll never forget Greg Brown gushing over Martin’s eyes and his look and how good he was going to be.

I think at the end of the day, if Endy kicks down the things the team sees in his way, he’ll make it, and soon. Davis, depends on their goal. Nailed on starting catcher, he’ll likely have to wait a bit..