Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Can’t Sit on Your Hands!

6-22-23 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Justin Verno- It’s about that time of year, Corey! June is here, and we’ve already heard some trade rumors floated into the ether. Granted, there haven’t been a lot but there are some, such as the Royals being ‘open for business’. 

Before we get too deep into all of this I have an official announcement: Corey and I WILL NOT be writing up a trade package for Bryan Reynolds! 

Corey Shrader- That’s right, Justin. No Bryan Reynolds talk. Just knowing that is really liberating. Also, I must say, this trip around the sun is a lot different than the last one with regards to the team, isn’t it?

JV- This year is unique from the last few Trade Deadlines as we truly have no idea how the FO will proceed. Nobody, including Ben Cherington, had this team in the play off picture. Yet here we are. As of writing this the Bucs are in 1st place in the Central (although it switches every two days) and just as importantly, they are in the Wild Card race. The second one matters almost as much as the first as it means the Bucs are solidly in the Play Off race. 

Corey, I believe this forces the front office’s hand here. They simply cannot sit on those hands. They cannot use Neal Hintington’s line from the 2014 Deadline. (Yes, I still capitalize the Trade Deadline as it should be a National Holiday.)

 “We looked at various points at which we could add to this club, and worked hard to add to the club, but in the final decision process, we felt that our best move was to stay as we were at this point.” 

 -Neal Huntington July 31st, 2014

BC will need to do better. He will need to do more. I guess it comes down to how big he’s willing to go?

CS- I expect to see the Pirates make a move or two as the deadline approaches, yes. In saying that though, it is my feeling that the big additions will be internal call-ups. Of course this is just my gut feeling. The front office has farm system pieces sufficient to probably pull a bigger move, if they decide it is time. As much as I do not believe the team will take the big swing – it is probably something we should explore the idea of.

JV- I think that’s the question: to swing or not to swing? To borrow from an all time great. Kinda. Whether or not they take a big swing or play small ball; they will make moves. 

They have glaring needs. They have some small pieces they can move from the 25 man roster. They have a deep system to dig into. And Corey, this is absolutely why teams build deep systems, is it not? 

CS- There are some different schools of thought on this. One camp will say you build up your farm system as deep as possible for the express purpose to spend those assets to add to the roster. The other most often repeated idea being you build a deep farm system so that “waves” of talent hit the majors at varying times. This method being the justification for prospects graduating to the pros being the lifeblood that sustains your organization. While I believe the Bucs veer much more toward the second camp for a multitude of reasons we don’t need to go in to here, there is an argument for a hybrid use of the farm. 

JV- My hopes over the last few years has been to get to where the Rays are, systematically. Build that system; develop, deploy, use the spill over to address holes. At one point you should have quality MLB players with control to trade, restock. Rinse and repeat. 

But I digress. Corey and I aren’t here to build the long term philosophy of the Bucs front office. This team is in the hunt, Corey. Let’s take a look at suggesting how they could fill some of those immediate holes! 

CS- I think beginning by taking a look at the starting pitching market is nearly an essential task at the current moment. With the Bucs currently shorthanded in the healthy starter pitching department due to both injury and rocky performance it only makes sense as an option. Of course Quinn Priester is currently at AAA and pitching pretty solid baseball, so that option is on the table too. The team has 3 vacant 40-man roster spots currently, so adding Priester would not be terribly difficult, procedurally speaking. But, pitching is definitely something that teams cannot really ever have enough of. 

JV- I  agree kicking this off with adding a starter is definitely the way we should  go. Traditionally, we start with trades that we feel are unlikely to happen but the rumors were going to be there so we felt it should be covered (i.e. all those Bryan Reynolds deals we wrote up). But this year it makes sense to start with the obvious needs (and I do mean needs) then finish with a few names I think we are going to  hear thrown around even if we hate hearing them.

If they were to get that aggressive and promote one Quinn Priester(and they shouldn’t do that just yet) I think they will still add a starter to boot. Corey, let’s dig into the idea of adding a starting pitcher!

Oh, one last thought: since we have literally no idea how Mr. Ben Cherington will precede here, I say we cover all the tracks. Lets cover a “small” buy, an “in the middle of the road” buy, and of course, the ever popular way more fun to think about, “yes I’d like to biggie size that” buy. Sound like a plan, man?

Small Ball Buy

CS- For my “small ball buy” I’m going to head out West to Chavez Ravine.

Pirates get: Landon Knack, P 

Dodgers get: Lonnie White Jr., OF

Look, it stings to move on from a young piece like White Jr., but, if you want to try to compete in the near term this sort of move would be something to target. White has been off to a slow start due in large part to injuries, but he is still a total lottery ticket. Perhaps the Dodgers, arguably the premier player dev organization in baseball, would take the tradeoff of proximity of Knack for the development potential of White Jr.

All in all, Knack is not quite as flashy as the rest of the LA pitching prospects, but his season at AA thus far has only been slightly less impressive (9.58 k/9, 1.88 bb/9, 2.20 ERA/2.94 FIP, in 57.1IP). He has only made one appearance in AAA and it hasn’t gone great yet, but the sample is too small to be very representative of much. Knack is 25 and will be Rule 5 eligible in December of 2023. Knack would be a near plug & play piece that could  be worth pursuing. 

JV-  I’ve struggled with how BC will approach any of this. As I look at small buys he could go with a low cost rental, a bigger rental, a reclamation or even the rare prospect for a prospect trade.

All of that is easy to say. But finding the fit? Not so much. It’s just early to know who’s selling and who’s buying. Lucky for Corey and myself we’ve heard 2 solid rumors so far! The first is the Royals are open for business. The second? That the White Sox will have some guys to move, namely the rentals. Rentals you say?

The Team-Chicago White Sox

The year is 2016, it’s been a busy Winter Meetings for the Bucs. It seemed they were moments away from sending Andrew McCutchen to the Nationals in a deal centered around Lucas Giolito (so the rumors would go). When the smoke cleared Gio would be a White Sox. Let’s remedy that and get him to the ‘Burgh.

Pirates Get-

Lucas Giolito-MLB–SP- SV $9M

Giolito isn’t having his best year, but he’s a solid starter, a vet and someone I think the FO could get a deal done with and keep him longer term. One of the best change ups in the game and has looked better as of late. No doubt he’ll be a popular name over the next few weeks, but he still won’t break the back(prospect wise).

White Sox get-

Nick Gonzales–2B/SS/3B–ETA:2023 FV 40 ($2M)

Po Yu-Chen-SP–ETA:2025 FV 40($1M)

This may seem lite and from an SV standpoint it is. But Gonzo feels like 45 FV right now. Getting on base in any way he can and the positional flexibility is attractive. He’s been cutting down on the strikes, the OPS is on the raise as the season moves forward. He is starting to feel like a change of scenery guy.  Best part is he’s close and the White Sox can easily sell some of the rentals and still have a nice core.

Put him together with a nice upside starter in Chen and this could be close. If the Bucs need to dig a little deeper I’m hopeful Cherington will do it, but don’t get crazy. For instance, with Tim Anderson possibly on the move could the CWS insist on Liover Pegeuro?

Middle of the Road

CS- Pirates get: Lance Lynn, P

       Bryan Ramos, 2B/3B or

      Oscar Colas, OF

White Sox get: Alika Williams, MI

                          Canaan Smith-Njigba, OF

This one may technically be cheating on my part, but I think trying to buy a large contract vet with a somewhat recent history of being good in order to return a solid prospect could be worth exploring. For that look no further than old buddy Lance Lynn of the Chicago White Sox. 

Lynn makes a lot of money, but his contract does expire (club option exists for 24), so perhaps the ask on Ramos as the 2nd piece is a bit too extravagant. Subbing in another near MLB ready player such as Oscar Colas could do the trick just fine. Ramos brings a more complete profile of both hit & power and can play multiple positions on the infield. Colas is basically a power only corner OF. But to take on Lynn’s contract (and the hope that he re-finds his groove the rest of the way), I’d surely move some upper level depth types like Williams, CSN, or someone of that tier.

JV- I know using the same team in the same article should be against our rules, Corey. But who cares? The White Sox are a team that should be looking to make some moves, I say lets run with it. 

The Team- Chicago White Sox

Pirates get-

Micheal Kopech–SP–MLB- SV 16$M

Kopech never really became what scouts thought he could become. But he’s a solid starter with 2+ years of control. The best part is he seems to have turned it up a notch. Since May 2nd, 9 starts, he’s been good. With a 2.41 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.05 he seems to be humming. The FIP and xFIP are higher(4.30 and 4.41) but I like the WHIP. Accompanied by a 29% K rate and a BAA of .173 I’d say this is a guy we could feel good about adding. 

Chicago gets-

Liver Pegueuro–SS/2B–ETA-2023-FV 45+($6M)

Man, I hate giving up Peggy here. Really do. I’ve been a Liover truther since they traded for him and moving him right when he seems to be kicking the door down hurts. But Anderson seems to be a guy on the way out and the White Sox will need a SS so this makes sense. If I’m Ben I am trying to offer Triolo and/or Gonzo over Peggy but in the end you have to give to get and I imagine the CWS will hold the line with Peggy. 

Thomas Harrington–SP-ETA-2026-FV 45($4M)

The hype is real with Harrington, and he’s likely to be a top 100 guy soon. I know it’s hard to see these kids moved, but this is it folks. We’ve built deals for a few years with guys like this coming back to the Bucs. Sorry, but if we want pitching with control? This is what it takes.

I’d also love to see a three team deal here? Bucs take Yasmani Grandal(basically a break even SV guy). Would the CSW like to see that contract go bye-byes? Then flip Grandal to the Miami Marlins, a team looking for a C that can hit.

Yes, I’d like to biggie size that

CS- I have to admit, all of these have been somewhat challenging but this one takes the cake. It is very tricky to find a “splash” starting pitcher that is clearly available or not outrageously priced.

For my proposal I went to the desert.

Pirates get: Brandon Pfaadt, P

Diamondbacks get: David Bednar, RP

This scenario would require the most imagination. The market for a large acquisition on the pitching front is very unclear at the moment. Where it gets tricky is that Arizona needs some help with starting pitching AND in the bullpen. While I don’t really want to see the Bucs move Bednar, this is the only kind of move where doing so could be feasible. Landing a controlled, high ceiling, MLB ready young starter would be quite nice. LIke I said up top, this one requires a bit more imagination. How badly does Arizona need a bullpen ace like Bednar? How badly does Pittsburgh need a young arm like Pfaadt?

JV-Looking at the possible SP market I just don’t see a Luis Castillo type. I’m not sure there is a big time starter with control to “go all in on”. So I had to think outside the box. Side note, we learned as I wrote this that Henry Davis is PGH bound. We also learned that the Bucs have no plans of sending Hedges or Delay to the minors. So I imagine that means Davis will play a healthy amount of games at RF. With this in mind there is a cross section of fans that will not want to read this. Anyways, here goes my “big buy”.

The team-Texas Rangers

Texas gets- Jack Suwinski–OF-MLB–SV Hard to calculate

Jack is loved by the fan base. Why? He has excellent power. I don’t see the Bucs dealing him but for this exercise it will work. With 5+ years of control his value is really hard to gauge. He’s pacing a 3 WAR campaign and ZiPS has him at 1.7 and 1.9 over the next 2 seasons. If we  used 2 or higher WAR it would be a solid surplus. Can we sell that for a guy that likely looks like a platoon player? Well his positive split is vs right handed pitching and that works for this exercise. I get that Davis isn’t playing CF and that is ok. Suwinski is not and should not be playing CF. The Bucs can fill that  with Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen and Ji-Hwan Bae until a better option comes along. (Enter one Dylan Crews)

Pirates get- Owen White-SP-ETA-2023-FV 55($34M)

Not the return you were  looking for? Me neither if I’m being honest. There just isn’t a Chris Sale in this market. Maybe Shane Bieber is close? But his numbers have fallen off a little and that isn’t ideal. 

So here we are taking a different approach.

Owen had already debuted, perhaps too soon. But his FB/SL combo is legit and well, we know the Bucs like that combo.

Dustin Harris–1B/LF–ETA-2023-FV 45($6M)

1B is a big need, right? Now imagine adding a 1B that can play OF. Why could that be important? When Endy Rodriguez is at 1B and Henry is at C who’s playing OF? Moving pieces? I dig it. 

OR

Justin Foscue-2B/1B/3B–ETA-2023-FV 45($6M)

I actually like Foscue more and wonder if the Bucs should shoot for both even if adding to the pot to get it done. His power plays better and I’ve seen it said he could play OF if needed. 

With Henry on the way and OF being something he’s worked on I really do wonder if the Bucs should listen on Suwinski. At the same time his power is something that could be special if he can cut down on the swing and miss(in general not just his K rate) and learn to hit LH at a passable level.  But please don’t take this suggestion at heart. I just could not find a Chris Sale on the market.

Wrap it up

CS- Well the pitching market in 2023 is kind of weird, isn’t it? There are some easier to identify sellers *cough cough* White Sox *cough cough*. But beyond them, it seems like an extra murky proposition to find something. We also need to reckon with the idea that buying or more specifically, renting, will not be something that occurs in 2023 for Pittsburgh.

JV- Grabbing a starting pitcher leading up to the trade deadline isn’t going to be cheap this year. At the moment it doesn’t look deep. If you want any kind of control it escalates. The Pirates could use a starter, just how far will they go to get it? Let’s find out!