Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

6-26-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

My guess is, you don’t need me to tell you this team is in trouble as they sit here having lost 12 of 13 contests, 9 of which were in the division.

Today, we’re going to spend time talking about how they got here, what they can do to turn things around and more than anything, is it too late even if they do them?

I spent considerable time last week detailing when we should have seen this was taking a nose dive, and real options for pulling up on the controls to try to avert the crash, now, let’s see if we can’t identify how they can survive the crash.

Let’s Go!

1. We Might Try….if They Do

This wasn’t the exact quote from Ben Cherington this week on his radio show on 93.7 the Fan, but it might as well be.

Essentially, Cherington said the team and their performance from here to the deadline will dictate how the team handles said deadline.

Now, this statement is unquestionably true for just about every team, just about every year, but the Pirates are in a strange situation that doesn’t happen everywhere.

So many of the poor PR statements that come from Ben Cherington are truly him telling us what we already know, but they just aren’t things you say.

What he means is “if this team fights back and gets themselves in the race for the division, we’ll add”, what it comes across as is “I’m not spending a nickel more to help this team until they show me it’s worth it”.

It’s undeniably true in the league. If your team isn’t within reach of making the post season, you tend to sell off what isn’t in your plans for the future. Thing is, they haven’t had a ton of success identifying who is and isn’t part of that future.

Here’s the list of who is currently on this roster, including injured parties, who will 100% be here and relied on for contribution.

Henry Davis – He’ll be here, but we don’t know where.

Oneil Cruz – Clearly nobody near the top of the system is even sniffing taking his SS spot.

Bryan Reynolds – Extended. He’ll be somewhere in the outfield.

Mitch Keller – At least next year, if they don’t extend him expect that talk to start up soon.

Ke’Bryan Hayes – Signed, and unfortunately a glove first player who will contribute less than you’d hope.

David Bednar – Lots of team control, and undeniably the only reliable member of the bullpen.

That’s it.

You can talk about Suwinski, Castro, Marcano, Bae, Endy, Ortiz, Oviedo, Holderman, but you can’t say you know beyond a shadow of doubt, they’re here, and they’re counted on.

By the end of this season, you may or may not be able to add some of these names, but so far, it’d be a stretch. You can think it, you can believe it, but you can’t know it.

Suwinski and Castro have power that the team needs badly, but they both go into weeks long funks and can’t hit lefties or righties respectively. Bae is erratic and using a power swing with a contact hitter’s frame. Endy isn’t even here. Ortiz, Oviedo and Holderman are all close to adding their names to the above list.

Let’s say they do, that’s 9 members of the 26 man you KNOW are part of this thing.

Is that enough to build on? Yes. Is that enough to win now? Ordinarily not, but this division stinks (Even the Reds, calm down on crowning them, they’re having the Pirates April now).

For 2023 to be a developmental success, I think that number needs to be near 12 or 13. If you can get to half your 26 man being filled with regulars you know will be part of this thing, I’d feel much better heading into 2024.

The disconnect comes from a GM failing to understand squeaking in to the dance to this fan base would be progress and worth fighting for if only to show progress. To the GM, squeaking in this year is both farther away than it looks and less impactful when your real goal was to be in contention by 24-25.

It’s trust the process on steroids.

If you CAN get in, you try like hell to get in. Not because you see yourself beating the Braves in a series, but because just getting there gives your franchise a foothold in this effort and sets your fanbase up for believing progress is being made.

Sitting back and letting it fall apart is kinda like a municipality having 30 accidents a year at an intersection and refusing to put in a stop light anyway. Accidents still might happen, but man at least you tried.

2. Cut the Known Disease and Hope You Save the Body

Andy Haines isn’t the sole reason this offense stinks, but he’s the face of failure.

When I recommend moving on from Haines I’m under no illusions it will turn everything on it’s ear immediately, but I’m quite sure from his time in Milwaukee and Pittsburgh keeping him certainly won’t do the trick.

The defense is that he doesn’t have talent. There is some of that in there for sure, but what about the guys you’re pretty sure do have talent?

I’ll be the first to tell you it’s not Andy Haines fault that Austin Hedges can’t hit, but you also have to acknowledge, he isn’t helping Hedges or anyone else find any way to be productive, end slumps, find the mechanical change that changes everything.

Oscar Marin the Pirates Pitching coach certainly has. He’s taken guys like Osvaldo Bido who wasn’t even invited to big league camp in Spring and thus far gotten 4 decent starts out of him. Keller has become a real top of the rotation guy. Ortiz went from single A to MLB in a year.

You don’t have to succeed with everyone, you have to succeed with someone.

Who has Haines helped?

Anyone? Jason Delay? Connor Joe? Josh Palacios?

We know beyond a shadow of doubt he didn’t help Yelich, Huera, Reynolds, Hayes, so I’m seriously asking, in a year and a half of coaching here, who has he improved? Who has he helped and had it stick?

Which is more likely, the Pirates have ALL guys who can’t hit, or the Pirates coaching isn’t helping?

April was tremendous, I gave him credit for overseeing it, but you can’t do anything in baseball for more than a few weeks before everyone knows your plan and attack it. His rebuttal to that league push back has been toothless. It’s been more of the same and hope things get better, but it’s too late, the league already knows your plan, and worse, they know you’re too dumb or stubborn to change it.

Think about it. Because the Pirates plan is so easy to diagnose, you know if you can throw strikes you’re going to get outs. If you have an Ump giving you an inch or two of grace off the plate, you have a real shot at a perfect game against this team, cause they simply won’t chase, even if contact literally equals a run.

Sometimes you just have to move on.

More than anything, you have to at some point look at your room and ask, do I think ALL these guys are awful hitters? If so, you better do a LOT more firing.

You can and I’m quite sure will in the comments, add in Derek Shelton or whoever, and you might be right, but let’s do this one step at a time.

Haines now, and if the approach doesn’t change after the interim is named, then point at Shelton.

Again, Haines isn’t the whole problem, he’s just the easiest part to replace in season. Change for the sake of change.

Hitting a baseball has often been called the hardest thing to do in sports, I don’t know if that’s true, but it’s damn hard. Haines coaching asks guys to do it with their instincts largely tied behind their backs.

3. What Could Really Be Done Aside from Haines Dismissal?

This is obviously the next thing. First, you hope that just changing the voice helps some guys see something that they’ve missed or at the very least, allows them to discover on their own a fix or two.

But then you really have to do some things, right?

First, I take the guys who are hitting and getting on and I pile them together in the lineup. For instance, Davis and Cutch should be no more than one spot away from each other. As it stands now, they barely interact offensively. Things like that.

Continue the call up party. Bring up Triolo and Peguero, send Bae, and Castro to AAA. Doesn’t have to be forever, but for a bit, let’s let them experience success again. Sometimes just remembering you’re kinda good at baseball can help.

I’m not a person that thinks Castro, Marcano or Bae have no use, but I do think we need to get them back on track. Send Bae down, play him in center, embrace it, take his restrictions away and tell him you want to see him impact the game. Run, bunt, slap hits, do whatever, but have impact. Castro, I either switch to all right handed, or just get him back to putting good swings on balls against lefties. More than anything find a place he can play.

I’d get Endy Rodriguez up here if he can manage to put some offensive numbers together over the next couple weeks and when he comes up, he needs to catch. I’d DFA Hedges, but if not option Delay.

Endy is seen as ahead of Davis as a catcher, so get him up here and get the process started.

Understand who’s who. What I mean by this, Connor Joe is a nice player, but he’s also not a daily starter. When you bring up someone like Mitchell or Smith-Njigba, use them.

Contact needs to be priority, not walks. Focus on the small wins in offense. Move a guy over, advance and produce. Small ball philosophy may not be en vogue now but it still houses the fundamentals of the game and when everything is failing, go back to basics and once established there add on. You can’t build until you’ve built the foundation.

Don’t get me wrong, nothing is going to help if Cruz and Reynolds are hurt, but two bats added into this lineup while performing like this, won’t matter either.

The truth is, there’s no one answer, but you have to start somewhere. Keeping Haines is like seeing an iceberg in the distance and refusing to turn the wheel even slightly.

4. Rumors are Starting Already

It won’t take you long to see them. The Rangers want Cutch and Bednar is the first one cropping up.

I’ll take you all the way back to Reynolds situation. Rumors that people want your players don’t constitute the team shopping them.

The agreement Cutch has with the team while not formal seems to be that the only scenario that would have Cutch moved is if he wants a shot at a World Series, it works for the Pirates and even then they’d plan to bring him back in 2024 if they see him as productive.

Losing is going to do nothing but make these things louder and more plausible.

The Rangers won’t be the only ones who want someone like Cutch, but this team at this stage really better be careful, he’s been THE bright spot this year outside of extending Reynolds and if you think this relationship between management and the fans is already broken, go ahead and add that in, see how much it helps.

I have it on good authority they have no interest in moving Bednar, but as I’ve written before, things change.

Win and this stuff is moot. Keep losing and everything is on the table.

5. Why are the Reds So Much Farther Ahead in Their Build?

First, I’m not sure they are.

They’re first place in a division that 2 weeks ago the Pirates were leading. The Pirates injuries have mounted and they have a bunch of kids and a bunch more coming.

The Reds have called up the vast majority of their top prospects. Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand are two guys they still have coming soon.

I’d call that a wash largely. Both teams seem positioned to make a run in the near future.

Now, why does it look so much better right now? Well, for one thing, they had more to move when they tore down and got some great returns.

The Pirates biggest chips have netted precious little fruit. Marte hasn’t returned a single MLB player as of yet. Bell returned nothing yet. Musgrove and Frazier well, we just don’t know yet.

Taillon, well that looked better when Roansy was rolling.

All that being said, I don’t think the current standings are reflective of where these teams are.

If you want to be scared, the Reds have a history of spending onto a build to get where they want to go. The Pirates don’t.

The Reds look poised to develop internally their top 3 starters, the Pirates look well positioned there too.

The Reds have a freak short stop, so do the Pirates.

The Reds have a perceived glut of middle infielders, the Pirates did too.

The thing is, the more you look at things, the more you realize these teams are on a collision course in this division. This year is truly up for grabs, any team in it could win the division, but the trajectory beyond is in my mind brightest for the Pirates and the Reds.

I’ll say this too, both teams in my mind don’t have the Manager that takes them to the next level.

The parallels are crazy but after this year, their paths will diverge a bit because then it changes to MLB development. Frankly, the Pirates haven’t been as good at it as the Reds.

If this team doesn’t make some changes to how they go about the development process, specifically how players transition from AAA to this level, all the talent in the world won’t propel them forward fast enough.

Davis, Gonzales, Mlodzinski, guys like that need to produce, just like India, Steer and Greene are. That’s the truth. Even if it hurts.

When a guy like Davis comes up and hits, the Pirates tack on a real tic mark in he “we’ll be good” column. When guys like Gonzales come up and go 0-9 and look bad doing it, not so much.

They don’t have to hit on them all, but they can’t miss outright on many.