6-30-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
I love breaking long seasons into segments. For me, it’s super healthy to sit back half way through the campaign, look everything over away from the day to day ups and downs of baseball and hone in on the important stuff.
It’s so easy to get lost in the havoc of everything and forget that all those small things are part of the larger story being written.
For instance, for Thursday’s contest against the Padres, did you know, or more accurately, did you notice the Bucs only had 14 players from the Opening Day 26-man active?
There have been injuries, poor performances, debuts, winning streaks, losing streaks (I think you noticed this part), but in all of that, sometimes it’s wise to take a 10,000 foot view.
1. In Certain Areas, the Depth was a Mirage
There were injuries, of course. Every team deals with them, every team has them. I’m certainly not going to glaze over them on the way to making this larger point, but the reason you want depth in the first place isn’t because you hope there are injuries and assume the depth will be just as good. You have depth because injuries are unavoidable, so in a way, baseball depth needs to at least to a certain degree, have experienced depth on top of hungry youngsters.
The Middle infield glut as we’ve all come to call it, probably would more accurately be called the second base glut. Even right now, the Pirates are playing Nick Gonzales there and for what it’s worth, he’s been good there, certainly has a better arm than Marcano, even if his range is more narrow, but he’s sure handed and makes the plays he should.
Even so, he’s not a short stop, not really. Neither is anyone else they’ve had to force into service.
It’s so stark the Pirates traded Tampa for Alika Williams, a completely glove first short stop, who if he makes the league will absolutely be due to his defense.
I think the starting pitching depth, arguably more tested than any other area, has largely held up. They’ve had hiccups of course, but over the long haul, they’ve held it down. If you told me at the beginning of the season Vince, Brubaker, Burrows would all have Tommy John and Roansy would falter, I can’t imagine I’d have thought they’d right this second have 4 guys in the rotation I really feel good about and 1 I’m overjoyed with how much better he looks here than he ever did in AAA.
The outfield with all those guys to run through. Kinda dried up quick didn’t it? We went from crying about Travis Swaggerty not making the cut to forgetting he exists. He’s had a hard time this year, but what is, is.
CSN, Cal Mitchell, Bae, Marcano, none of them really grabbed anything. They were all really passed by Josh Palacios a MiLB Rule 5 pick and Henry Davis. Two guys we didn’t really even have in this mix and Henry for now is a lock there.
The bullpen depth wasn’t as strong as I thought it would be, but I was also surprised to see how quickly Ben Cherington pulled the plug on guys like DeJong and Underwood. I wonder if he too was fooled by what I saw as depth. And don’t get me wrong, DeJong and Underwood weren’t good, but what the bullpen has become right now, a call to the pen right now for anyone not named David Bednar is scary, all I’m saying is I’m not sure it would have this fully devolved if he has been a bit more patient. The bullpen isn’t a place to fill with rookies and hope for success.
2. The Youth Movement is Here
I wondered how we’d see the mass of kids getting close get worked in with all the veterans they signed, brought in or were already here. Teams don’t tend to do this willingly so I assumed some would get their shot from injury, a couple from guys getting a shot performing poorly, I had no idea it would happen in such a congested fashion.
Everything has been piled together here with this thing and it’s going to keep going. Peguero will get a shot, Endy, Priester, Selby, honestly, I’m being conservative leaving it here.
Over the next few days, weeks, we’ll see some veterans and regulars return to the lineup and probably say goodbye to a few guys we’d been hoping all year would latch on, at least for now.
Here’s the thing about youth movements, once you start them, and they consist of number one picks and highly ranked prospects, it’s really hard to turn back.
It’s not 100% we’ve called up these guys and they’ll never go back, but it sure as hell is clear as day, some of them simply are here to stay.
Until it happened, I wasn’t sure if it would be in August/September or maybe if they’d just show up to Spring ready to have them fight it out. Now we know, the vast majority of this season will be driven by the kids.
3. They Intend to Maintain a Core
This team is, under this MLB system, never going to be a big spender, but the Reynolds extension shows us they are interested in building and paying strategically members of what they see as the Core.
Before this, all we had to go on was Hayes, and bluntly, his contract is and will remain such a bargain, it could be argued any team in the league would sign it, regardless of their intensions. Yes, even with his bat being what it is.
Now, we don’t know if that’s 6 guys, 8 guys, I’m quite sure it won’t look like the Braves, but we know the plan isn’t to just try to win with all players on entry level deals or arbitration, they plan to have some pieces locked in.
Again, because money and the Pirates always spawn Nutting commentary, rightly so, I’ve always said, they will spend, I just don’t see them maintaining whatever the peak of that payroll figure looks like for a decade. Being a team that is always going to a degree have to get their best talents from the draft and international boards as opposed to free agency, eventually special talents will push expensive players aside allowing for a payroll down turn and ultimately the ability to trade the veteran asset for more young talent. Sound familiar? It should, if executed nearly perfectly it’s the Rays system.
We’re nowhere near knowing what their perceived cap is on payroll. So point stands, for now the takeaway is, they don’t immediately map out a guy’s career and assume the end of team control is the end of their Pirates career.
4. If They Don’t Add From Outside, I Don’t See Enough
There are more kids yet to come up, but as I look at the landscape, who’s here, who won’t be, who might be, I can’t help feeling they’re short a big bat, a veteran lefty starter and some bullpen help.
I could see it developing, but I’m not sure they can seriously contend in 24 or 25 as I think they’d like to unless something comes from outside. It’s probably best that they keep their minds open too. Rather than shopping for a big 1B bat that probably doesn’t’ exist on the FA market, maybe use other assets over there and find that bat elsewhere. I just think they need an experienced bat beyond this season and most of what they have will be gone after the last ball is caught this year.
5. This is the Worst the NL Central Will Be for a Decade
Young talent is flooding the division and it’s pretty clear this transition year is a unique opportunity for 2 or 3 teams that probably have no business winning anything this year.
That right there is the best reason to not treat 2023 like it doesn’t matter, even if you weren’t ready to be in any kind of race.
This young talent could explode and propel the team into something serious, or, it could falter and show more holes from point 4 I haven’t even visualized yet.
The Cardinals are down, but they aren’t an organization that is just going to be patient and wait, they’ll fix what they were this year and next year be back in the conversation. The Reds are in their own youth movement and all of that applies to them too, difference is they don’t have as much yet to come.
The Brewers are poised to downturn but they won’t bottom out.
The Cubs are confusing. Probably will be for a couple more years.
All that to say, if you can in 2023, do it, it certainly won’t get easier from here, but I like how they’re positioned.
Steel City Pirates 