7-1-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
| National League Central Standings | |||
| Win | Loss | ||
| Cincinnati Reds | 44 | 38 | 🔼 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 43 | 39 | ⬇️ |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 39 | 42 | ⏫ |
| Chicago Cubs | 38 | 42 | ⬆️ |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 33 | 47 | ⏬ |
June was yet another confounding month in the NL Central. Three months of the season in the books and the only real constant is that Milwaukee is the most consistently performing team in the division. From the outset we knew the division was going to be kind of wild, but so far it is even wilder than I imagined. Very early season Pittsburgh was the story of the National League. Now that we have seen June come and go, there is a new “it” team out of the Central. Let’s begin there, shall we?
Cincinnati Reds
It is time to confront the fact that Cinicinnati might be arriving earlier than anticipated. While we have seen first hand what a fun month-long hot streak looks like, there is a lot of reason to believe that the Reds stretch might be a little more sustainable than the early swoon for the Pirates. That being said, it is an extremely young group. Things can certainly get rocky in a hurry, but you cannot deny this young core looks pretty special. The bad news is that more help is also very close at hand.
Lineup
In May we touched on a lot of these same names, but we have to talk about many of them again;
Matt McLain – While his very large teammate has been getting most of the press, McLain has been equally as impressive in his rookie campaign. In June McLain posted an impressive .384 wOBA, 136 wRC+ with 4 homers, 4 triples, 7 doubles, 18 runs, 14 RBI, and 3 steals. He has a strong approach with below league average whiff and chase rates so his across the board production appears to be sustainable.
Spencer Steer – Much like McLain, Steer had an across the board offensive impact in June. In fact they are incredibly similar offensive skill sets. 5 doubles, 4 homers, 11 runs, 18 RBI, 7 steals accompanied by a .376 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. Stop me when you’ve heard this before, but his approach features below average whiff and chase rates. While I am not sure either McLain or Steer profile as star level talents, these are above average “glue guys” that should be tremendous assets to fill in a quality lineup.
Elly De la Cruz – The big fella. Outside of Ohtani, Acuna Jr, Carroll, Franco, Jrod, & Tatis Jr, there may not be a more tantalizing player in the major leagues right now. Each plate appearance and time he gets on base holds the possibility for something jaw-dropping to happen. June has seen Elly DLC post 5 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers, 19 runs, 10 RBI, 8 steals on the back of a .379 wOBA & 133 wRC+. On top of the production he is the fastest man in baseball (30.7 ft/sec) and top end max exit velocity (116.6). His average EVs are just above league average and it is likely a function of a low-ish barrel rate (5.9%). The biggest warts are a very low launch angle (1.3 degrees), a very high ground ball rate (62.7%), and some approach concerns (above league average chase & whiff rates). His incredible speed is likely allowing him to bypass these “issues” and should continue to bolster him as he adjusts to the majors. Just an awe-inspiring talent.
Will Benson – Benson broke camp with the Reds and did not perform. He is back now and excelling in a strong side platoon role. As a prospect with Cleveland Benson always had obvious freakish athletic ability and tools, he appears to be filling out his game in the Queen City. This month in 66 PAs against right handed pitching Benson has produced like gangbusters; 3 homers, 14 BB/12 Ks, a .444 wOBA, & .175 wRC+. While I do not think he is quite this good, he looks like a good contributor and will be worth watching as a developmental project.
T.J. Friedl/Jake Fraley – In the same vein as Benson these two had an impressive month. Neither is a standout player on their own, but they both appear to be productive part time players and a big part of the Reds June success story.
Pitching
Andrew Abbott – After bullying AA & AAA Abbott got the call in June. His first 5 career Major League starts have been much the same. In 29.2 IP Abbott is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 30 K/12 BB, a .155 BA against, and a .229 wOBA against. This is an incredible debut line, but it is buoyed by a .186 BABIP, so it is a little unreasonable to just assume a continued baseline of dominance like this. His main offerings aren’t posting any big whiff numbers and his BB rate is above MLB average – but what a fantastic debut nonetheless.
Hunter Greene – 3 starts and 17.1 IP saw Greene find 1 win with 20K/9BB. A great bounce back for Greene after a lackluster May. Greene turned in a good June prior to being shut down with a hip injury that will keep him sidelined until August.
Fernando Cruz/Lucas Sims – Cruz & Sims emerged as strong compliments to stud closer Alexis Diaz. Sims dropped 7 holds and a 37% K%, Cruz with a strong 30.2% K% and has continued to out-pitch his surface stats.
Minor League Check In
Connor Phillips – Phillips poleaxed AA all season (15.45 k/9 & 3.76 bb/9, 3.34 ERA & 1.21 WHIP) and got the call up to AAA. As long as he continues to perform, he should be making his debut in the Majors sometime this year.
Noelvi Marte – At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Marte found himself moving from AA to AAA recently. Marte reclaimed his “elite” prospect status in 2023, bashing around AA pitching before suffering a minor injury. Upon his return to action in late June, the Reds decided to promote him to AAA. I don’t know where they plan to play all of these guys, but Marte is yet another big time bat that should find his way to the big club as soon as the organization feels he is ready.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES is just waiting in the wings at AAA. June saw him cut his K% and increase his BB% dramatically. While I still think he will be more of a traditional slugger profile in the major leagues, for all intents and purposes, he is ready for his turn as soon as Cincinnati picks up the phone.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers had a consistent month of baseball, all things considered. At the moment they are a sort of boring steady presence at the top of the division.
Lineup
Joey Wiemer – Wiemer had a pretty electric month of June blasting 6 homers, 6 extra base hits, swiping 2 bases, with a .379wOBA & 139 wRC+. The Joey Wiemer experience will likely be a lot like the Tyler O’Neill experience. Both guys are power/speed monsters with whiff issues. Wiemer plays a very strong defensive OF, so the Brewers will be inclined to let him play and continue to work on refining the approach.
Christian Yelich – The “Yelich is still a good player” train keeps on rolling. He hits well, runs well, produces well. The narrative that he isn’t very good any more because he can’t replicate his insane 2018-19 peak is one that you don’t need to pay attention to, it’s wrong.
Rowdy Tellez – Rowdy was an excellent slugger in 2022. He has been equally awful in 2023. In the month of June he was the worst qualified hitter by fWAR in the National League. Can’t claim to know what the cause is, but he does not look like a MLB regular at this point.
Pitching
Colin Rea – Rea is mostly a middling journeyman type, but he was Milwaukee’s best pitcher in June. He profiles as a boring, back-end, innings eater type going forward. His inclusion here is more a function of how “off” the rest of the staff has been than how good Rea has been.
Corbin Burnes/Freddy Peralta – These two will need to perform much better for the Brewers to get anywhere beyond the NL Central. The results have been underwhelming, but not a total trainwreck. Burnes peripheral numbers suggest he is pitching better than his surface stats show, but Freddy is essentially meeting his. I don’t want to rule out a sudden turn around for either, but it has been a pretty disappointing year for this duo of talented starters.
Brandon Woodruff – Still working his way back from injury, unsure timetable for return but has been completing bullpen sessions this month with success.
Joel Payamps – Payamps has seen his role shift towards a key set-up role being featured in the 7th or 8th most times this month. He generates weak contact and has a pretty nasty slider & should continue to serve as a late game stopper ahead of Devin Williams.
Minor League Check In
Tyler Black – Black was a player we highlighted in April, after a little slower May he is making his case for attention again. On the season at AA Black has put up 10 homers/40 steals on the back of a terrific approach (18.8/21.5 BB%/K%). In June alone Black boasts a .461 wOBA & a 180 wRC+. I see little reason that he doesn’t see AAA soon. He might just be one of the most underrated prospects in the game.
Jacob Misiorowski – In June Misiorowski got bumped up to A+. He has continued flashing the big time strikeout stuff (and his control issues). He’s got an incredible ceiling along with pretty significant risk unless the control gets cleaned up. A very compelling pitcher for the Crew.
Jackson Chourio – Coming into the year Chourio had a lot of “best prospect in baseball” buzz. He hasn’t quite met those expectations yet, but we still should acknowledge that he is incredibly young for AA. His production to date 10 HR/21 steals, .325 wOBA, 94 wRC+ aren’t exactly jumping off the page, but for a 19 year old (the only teenager in all of AA) that has been hyper-aggressively moved, it is still an impressive feat. A strong second half and his stock will absolutely explode again.
Chicago Cubs
Chicago posted a good record this month going 14-11. Right now they are the team most jockeying with the Bucs for position, both teams just behind the leaders.
Lineup
Dansby Swanson – When June began I predicted Swanson was due to start producing, it appears that I was not quite right, but he did have a solid month: 9 runs, 4 homers, 12 RBI, .261/.330/.409, and a .326 wOBA/104 wRC+. All things considered, Swanson has been one of the best players in the NL by fWAR, tied for 6th best at 3.0. This is greatly propped up by his excellent defense. He would be my All Star Game starter at shortstop. I anticipate the bat to start showing more in the 2nd half too based on his underlying numbers. Just a very good ballplayer.
Nico Hoerner/Nick Madrigal – [insert pointing Spider Man meme here] These two are terrific athletes, have strong hit tools, don’t whiff, run well, play good defense. They are not going to be massive run producers but boy are they fun if you like throwback type of players. In June Madrigal has been sneakily good posting a .374 wOBA and 137 wRC+. It will be interesting to see how his role pans out going forward.
Christopher Morel – Last month we mentioned Morel’s downside that manifests itself in the way of tons of strikeouts. Well, in June Morel might just have taken a step toward addressing that. Morel cut his K% from 38.7% to 21.3% and increased his BB% from 5.3% to 10%. The funny part of this development is that his overall production slowed this month. I am inclined to believe that the important part to focus upon is that if this change sticks, Morel has a chance to be a pretty special player for the Cubbies. Definitely a player to watch.
Pitching
Bullpen – Just went ahead and said “bullpen” because,man, have Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather, Fulmer, Rucker, Wesneski been good in June. As a unit the Cubbies pen has posted a 1.4 fWAR in just 68 IP this month. A terrific effort for them.
Marcus Stroman – Stroman continues his strong 2023 season with a June line of 29IP, 2.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 19/7 K/BB, and a 4-1 W/L. Due to his extreme groundball style Stroman almost always outperforms his peripherals & that appears to be going the same for this year. While he is not an ace, he is a very good rotation piece.
Kyle Hendricks – Kyle Hendricks is back at it, folks. In classic Hendricks fashion to boot. Surrendering poor contact quality & suppressing hard contact at league leading levels, and exhibiting pinpoint control. Nothing flashy, but very effective and absolutely chews quality innings.
Minor League Check In
Alexander Canario – Canario, one of the Cubbies top young hitting prospects, just made his 2023 debut with an affiliate this month. Not quite enough PAs to really glean anything, but it is worth following his performance as he is an exciting power/speed prospect who made it all the way to AAA in 2022.
Cade Horton – The 7th overall pick in the 2022 entry draft, Horton is living up to the hype in the lower minors. 34IP, 39.6%/8.2% K/BB, 3.15 ERA, 2.83 FIP, he is not really getting a challenge at A+. He is ready for the next level and should soon get that call.
Jordan Wicks – 2021 1st round pick, Jordan Wicks is being slightly underrated right now. Performed well enough at AA to receive the promotion to AAA on 6/27/23. Wicks is a very well rounded starting pitcher and now that he joins Ben Brown at AAA and Horton on the precipice of reaching AA, the Cubs future’s looking closer and closer on the hill.
St. Louis Cardinals
The only NL Central team with a worse month of June than Pittsburgh, St Louis is still looking rudderless. While the season is only now at roughly the half-way point, things do not look great for the Cards. There are a few encouraging signs to touch on below, but the whole vibe is kind of off in 2023.
Lineup
Jordan Walker – Back in the majors, Walker is having a very impressive second run for the Red Birds. Walker is posting his trademark big time exit velocities and showing an improved approach. Fans should get used to seeing Walker hit rockets, it appears that he will be doing so in the NL Central for a long time to come.
Brendan Donovan – Donovan is a bit of a different player in 2023. Spring training showed him flashing more power and while it isn’t huge, it is more present. He is hitting the ball harder more often and has increased his launch angle enough to see him getting to his power more often. He has a strong plate approach and makes good swing decisions, so the added power makes him a more complete and more dangerous player. Not a star level talent, but looks like a trademark Cardinal.
Dylan Carlson – After a disappointing 2022 season, Carlson might have begun to find something this June. Carlson led the Cardinals in wOBA, wRC+ this month. Now, he did this as a part time player and that can be either deceiving or predictive. Is his success due to being protected by less PAs or is his success a predictor of future good play? Will be worth watching in July.
Pitching
Jordan Hicks – Not sure there is a more absurd pitch to observe in all of baseball than Hicks’ sinker or Jhoan Duran’s “splinker.” How a hitter is supposed to even make contact with either offering is almost hard to comprehend. Hicks has always possessed tantalizing stuff, but unfortunately he has also been plagued by injury too. Right now he is healthy and producing great relief work for St. Louis. If they get both Hicks & Helsley in the bullpen at the same time their back end is going to be as fearsome as it gets.
Jordan Montgomery – What a rollercoaster season for JorMont so far. The June iteration of JorMont has been great. 7th most valuable starter in the NL by fWAR for the month & most valuable in the NL Central finishing ahead of Marcus Stroman by 0.2 fWAR. 31.2 IP with a 3-1 record, 1.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 30/6 K/BB, and peripherals that mostly back it up. His June dominance has him in the top 10 of fWAR among all NL starters on the season now & I’d bet on him carrying on a strong rest of 2023.
Adam Wainwright – It looks like Father Time has finally caught up to Waino. Up to this point in his career he was able to out-pitch his peripherals due to an ability to avoid hard contact and suppress barrel rates. In his age 41 season, this skill appears to no longer be available to him. While we cannot say it’s all over yet, he has a long track record, it is looking like the sand in the hourglass is running out.
Minor League Check In
Tink Hence – Tink missed some time with a chest injury, but has been back to a near normal workload in June. He is only at A+ level, but it is not unreasonable to see him promoted to AA by the end of the season. Hence had one very bad outing in June but still put up a great line flashing plus plus control (3.8% BB).
Ivan Herrera – We touched on Herrera in May & he has continued his strong play at AAA. Contreras has been struggling in the majors, so it stands to reason we might see Herrera get a real crack at the role soon. June saw him go: 14%/15.8% BB/K, .957 OPS, .414 wOBA, 137 wRC+ at AAA. Not sure they will keep him down a whole lot longer.
Michael McGreevy – With Wainwright struggling hard and Liberatore also having a tough go, McGreevy could be the next man up. It does not appear that McGreevy is a front end type of arm, he has just had two dominant starts at AAA where he flashed nice K stuff. I think it won’t be long before we see the former 1st round pick in the major leagues.
June was not kind to the Pirates, however, the division is still pretty much wide open. As we saw first hand, one hot month can change a lot. Just as much as one cold month. I think Pittsburgh has a fair shot to remain in the mix here and better days are ahead. It will be interesting to check-in on this group of teams again next month. See you then!
Steel City Pirates 