Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – More Kids

7-17-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates have played poor baseball. They’ve been injured, they’ve underperformed, they’ve even just flat out kicked a baseball right at the wrong time.

One thing they haven’t done is completely bungle a rebuild.

Not yet.

Oh, don’t get me wrong, it’s not decided where this will go quite yet, it could fail, but the expectations for how quickly kids reach their “powers” is also insanely inflated. A guy like Henry Davis, at 1:1, should come up and look like a player. A guy like Ji-Hwan Bae or Rodolfo Castro, well, they take work but they’re no less important to the effort.

I’m going to ask today, do your best to open your mind, walk through this with me today and then let’s talk. If after reading this you just want to be mad, that’s completely your choice, they certainly aren’t blameless, they certainly didn’t have to go the route they did, but let’s at least be mad about actual controllables they made bad choices on.

1. Let’s Revisit the “Plan”

Before I delve in, let’s start here, you don’t have to like the plan, nor do I. You don’t have to trust the owner (I don’t), expressly why I’ve never said this plan would work, just that I believe it will provide a solid enough base to succeed if they support it properly.

Just because I knew this was what we’d see in a broad strokes way means nothing more than I have an ability to accept what is likely, and stop being surprised by it, even when the team starts off looking like they might just have found a magic formula earlier than anyone expected.

Way back in 2020, this is the map I laid out for all of you who have suffered along with us since then.

2020- Stink, and see if anyone was worth keeping. Turns out only a couple were.

2021- Stink, and hope some of the trades and general growth of the system drop another answer or two in the bucket.

2022-Stink, and just about repeat 2021’s plan. Setting the stage for a quickly melting wax plug that releases youth on the 2023 roster.

2023-Flirt with .500, have a team by the end of 2023 that you’d feel comfortable returning to Spring of 2024 with identified holes to fill.

2024-Compete for the division and wild card, on board even more kids.

2025-Your guess is as good as mine because this is where spending will probably tell the story of how far they get, along with how well they’ve developed.

Even how long it lasts is up for debate and execution. I never extended my “road map” beyond that, because after that, there were simply too many variables. Up to this point though, it was and to me at least is 100% what I expected.

I don’t revisit this for a pat on the back, I revisit it simply because it’s unfathomable to some that I’m not incensed over where they are. This is again, the only way I could see it playing out. Of course the 20-8 start had me thinking maybe they could find a way to make themselves relevant one year early.

In 2020, they didn’t have much talent in the system, at least not close to the league. They didn’t have much to trade of the kind of value you’d need to move to get top tier prospects in return, and honestly, they got less than they should have for some of them.

This season, they did something I didn’t expect, they went out and bought veterans. Oh, I thought they’d get a couple but I didn’t see them bringing in as many as they did. It helped them start hot, and then the energy left, and injuries piled. Kids played like kids, some took steps back, others settled back into what they are.

Maybe the development system just stinks. Personally, I’ll wait to see. It sure as hell did, but the first thing this regime did is clean house and invest in tech and new coaches. Seems fair to see what this group does before again, deciding they are who they were.

If developmental success is 90% of rookies called up kick ass all day every day, there are 29 other failures out there. If it’s never sending a rookie back down for fine tuning, again, 29 other teams are complete and utter failures.

I start in 2020 because I don’t believe Cherington should be crucified for the sins of his predecessor. They’ve sucked longer than he’s been here, and that very fact is why building internally in a year or 2 simply wasn’t smart to expect.

Again, disagree if you like, that’s certainly your right. But history is history, and this path is what we’ve seen.

2. Three More Kids…

Quinn Priester, Liover Peguero and Endy Rodriguez will all be called up officially today. Yay!

Quinn is the Pirates top pitching prospect, well, top pitching prospect who is on the doorstep ringing the bell anyway. Quinn also has work to do.

His 5 pitch mix is good, and honestly, he’s pretty polished. He knows what his pitches will do, he trusts his stuff, he largely hits his spots and almost more importantly than anything, he trusts his stuff to get outs in the strike zone.

Thing is, his stuff, isn’t a match for his mentality. This is a prospect who’s going to have to learn to pitch at this level. None of this is doom, instead, it’s just realistic expectations for how his entry to the league might look. Chances are he’ll at least find out MLB hitters not wearing Black and Gold anyway will punish fastballs in the zone that don’t move, whether you throw them 87 or 97. Velocity gives you some room for error, when you don’t have it you better get that pitch under the hands or up off the plate, feel me?

Endy is in the eyes of the organization more advanced behind the dish than Henry Davis, which you’d expect if you bothered to do more than bitch about it. Henry is obviously not a guy who has caught professionally nearly as much as Endy.

Endy is here because the bat finally showed it was ready for a shot this year. I say this year because 2023 was also the first year he struggled offensively at all. They and we, expected this to come earlier, in fact, they and we expected he’d come before Davis. But as I said months ago, Endy is getting the call when they are ready to hand over the catching reigns to kids, and he’ll start tonight showing you that.

Peguero has been crushing the baseball and he’s a natural short stop. An error generating short stop, but he has all the physical tools to be really good. We’ll see, but he’s not polished in the field.

I’m excited for each and every one of them.

But I don’t see any of them as some savior. My advice would be you don’t see them that way either.

It’s not fair to them, but more than that, it’s not fair to you. How can you appreciate improvement if you won’t crack a smile until you see and experience the destination?

Travel back in time to 2020, if Mitch Keller came up today, would he get 3 full seasons to become MITCH?

I doubt it honestly. That said, there are a whole lot more Keller stories out there than there are Spencer Strider’s.

Yet 90% of us expect Strider every call up.

3. Decisions Get Harder

Those three are coming up, great, grand, awesome, but who goes? We know Cody Bolton will be one, we can be reasonably assured Jason Delay will be one.

The other spot is a bit more murky. Marcano makes some sense, but that would mean Endy is seen as the backup 2B at least until Hayes returns. Sounds like they’ll go with Palacios according to Jason Mackey. Either way, it’s not quite as easy as it used to be, but yeah, same old Pirates. Look at the record, anyone could be cut!!! Angry face emoji!!!

That’s just not realistic. There are locks on this roster and if you don’t think that should be the case, please, at the very least don’t also be one of the people who panic about seeing a guy we used to have, experience a modicum of success somewhere else, because there is very much so talent here. Young, unseasoned talent.

Spring next year the Pirates will sign at least one starting pitcher, maybe 2. They’ll have Keller and a host of options beyond that, like Roansy, Ortiz, Priester, Jones, Oviedo, Solometo will be up there making noise, Nicolas, maybe even more, lets not forget how obscure Ortiz was. Look, someone you think is “a guy” won’t make this club out of Spring.

I’ll write when it happens that they signed veterans to push up the talent, and depth, but you’ll still think they screwed up and blocked someone you like.

This is life in MLB. They don’t have throwaway guys getting calls anymore, now they have guys who earned a shot.

Every time you send one of those down, it’s going to be hard to swallow. But that’s how this process works.

The progress you want to see from a team building perspective is there. It hasn’t effected the record positively, and that is the next step. It must start impacting the win loss column.

I do expect that, I just also expect that they’ll impact it negatively at times too.

If you go through the 13 position players after they make all this official tonight, there’ll be one name that’s an easy “cut” and that’s Hedges. Santana is old, but moving him with no internal 1B option not named Endy might be an issue. Choi is in the same boat. Hedges won’t play much moving forward and if he did, it’s not like he’s good at selling himself.

It’s hard now, and it’ll get harder as we move into next year.

Again, that’s the goal. Make it harder to make roster moves. Hope against hope that some prospects emerge and become redundant so you have even more trade capital to keep the farm healthy. Root for Triolo and Hayes to both produce, and ultimately, pick one.

Look, anything is on the table moving forward. Open your mind.

4. The Coaching is an Unavoidable Issue

Despite every factor involved, it’s clear to see Derek Shelton is out of answers, if you believe he ever had them.

Muttering that nobody executed this or didn’t make a pitch there while still professing from a coaching standpoint you did the right thing, well, it gets old, for everyone.

I personally believe in Oscar Marin, I know, I know, some of you don’t, but I can’t argue with some of what he’s overseen. I also can’t discount that he inherited Roansy Contreras almost ready made from the Yankees and all we’ve seen is his slow devolvement.

Haines I think I’ve documented plenty my disdain for his approach.

Let’s start here. Derek Shelton’s extension shouldn’t’ mean much. Even for a team like the Pirates, making moves from this area when they see it as necessary, well, they’ve proven to you they’ll do it already and eat whatever it costs.

Shelton has thrown backhanded comments out about his options in the bullpen, his options off the bench, his options in the field, and at the same time has openly defended players Helen Keller knew couldn’t play.

His lineups are analytics driven, so will the next coach’s. His bullpen usage well, it feels like most nights he’s trying to see if he can get lucky to get to the 9th as opposed to putting his best arms in when the game is on the line. When he’s not doing that, he’s asking Bednar to throw two innings then loses him for the next 2 games.

Player performance of course isn’t all on the head coach, but I can’t help but feel a seasoned coach wouldn’t accept 2 months of his team collectively filled with kids you hope matter, not hitting the baseball.

In fact, Haines is my biggest indictment of Shelton. At some point you can’t blame a guy for doing his job exactly as he’s praised for doing it. If my team hit like that for 2 months and my manager gave out quotes like “Andy works so hard every day”, I think I’d almost feel awful for accepting the praise but I certainly wouldn’t’ change anything. Coach clearly likes what I’m doing right?

Hey, maybe behind the scenes Derek is brow beating the dude every day, but I doubt it.

Much like the Penguins once had to fire a Stanley Cup winning Head Coach because he couldn’t get the kids to play his way, the Pirates might have to just admit they hired a nice babysitter for 3 years and move on to someone who knows how to do what’s next, you know, WIN.

More than anything, they simply aren’t improving anywhere.

The hitting is stagnant, and frustratingly so as they’ve done nothing but add talent slowly but surely for 3 years now. The pitching is better, but he just shows next to no feel for pushing the right buttons when he does have pieces. Give him a fully stocked bullpen and he’ll still find a way to see if he can get through the 6th with Underwood or Borucki.

The defense is sickening. Part of that is playing guys out of position, part of it is just being woefully unprepared for situational plays. Heck, even Bryan Reynolds chooses the wrong base to throw to on occasion and he’s had Shelton chirping in his ear for 4 years.

We were told by this entire management group that they would control what they could control and defense was the chief example. In 2020, they were excellent even with Josh Bell chunking balls at first base. After that, a carnival of errors and mental lapses.

Being well liked by your players is part of the gig, can’t discount that, but I’ve never been more productive in my work career when I worked for someone that would get in my face and say that’s not good enough.

Like, how many times would Gary Redus play for Jimmy Leyland if he time after time fielded a ball and threw to the wrong base? Yeah, you know how many.

I like Derek Shelton, and I don’t think the team is ready to speak in this way about him, but lets face it, people like you and I, journalists, whatever, we’re always ready before the team is.

I can’t shake that he’s a starter coach, and I also can’t shake we’re just about done with that need, time to win.

5. Cruz Returning in 2023 Doesn’t Feel Like a Lock

It’s July 17th.

Oneil hasn’t swung a bat. He hasn’t fielded standing up.

Before he can return, he’ll need to practice fielding, throwing, hitting, running and he’ll likely require a rehab assignment as well.

Just because most don’t really get this, each of those tick marks don’t come at the same time. Each has a progression.

In other words, the first time he swings a bat, it’ll be off a tee, not facing Mitch Keller.

I believe they want to get him back on the field before the season ends, but as I sit here, it feels more like we’ll get into September and I’ll be honest if it’s a risk at all, I’d just not.

His original timeline had him returning in mid August, but folks, no way, I’m sorry, that’s just not gonna happen. When you see him swing the first time, and trust me they’ll make sure you do, add 4-5 weeks on and you’ll be close, IF he has no setbacks, IF it comes right back to him, IF it’s for more than a game or two.

If you’re like me and have broken your ankle in your lifetime, it didn’t likely take you 5 months to get back up and going. But you likely aren’t 6′ 7″ tall, and didn’t likely make your living by having ankles made of rubber allowing you to gobble up ground balls from a dead run.

My guess would be because it is for every player, the legs provide the power. Without that, I’m not sure he’s the same player, in fact, I’m sure he isn’t.

Sorry if this is depressing, but as usual, I’m all about those unhealthy expectations.