8-3-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
| National League Central Standings | |||
| Win | Loss | ||
| Cincinnati Reds | 59 | 51 | 🔼 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 58 | 51 | 🔽 |
| Chicago Cubs | 55 | 53 | 🔼 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 48 | 59 | 🔁 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 48 | 61 | 🔁 |
The All Star Game and the trade deadline have come and gone! Now that we find ourselves pretty well past the half-way point our picture of what is going on in the fight for the Central is about as clear as mud!
Let’s get into July!
Cincinnati Reds
Darlings of the league for a good chunk of this season, the Reds have been showing off their player development, scouting, and rebuilding chops in 2023. July wasn’t as hot of a month for them, but it was still pretty OK.
Offense: 1.9 (24th)
Pitching: 2.7 (10th)
Starters: 1.8 (13th)
Bullpen: 0.9 (t10th)
As one might expect the young offense did see some tougher times as the league caught up to them a bit. The really big key here will be on the young fellas to counter-punch these adjustments.
Lineup
Matt McLain – Yippee Ka-Yay, Matt McLain just keeps on rolling. While he isn’t the biggest name among the Reds prospects, he has been the most impactful thus far with a 2.6 fWAR through 62 games. In July he has chipped in 5 doubles, 3 homers, 14 runs, 8 RBI, 4 steals, a .363 wOBA, 122 wRC+, and a triple slash of .275/.376/.450. The approach is good and shows that what he is doing is real. The xwOBA is backing it up to sitting at .342.
Spencer Steer – Having a bit of a down month from a production standpoint and his defense is a true negative. The bat has to carry him and he will be prone to boom/bust months in fWAR terms when the bat has gone colder.
Elly De la Cruz – Elly has had a rough July. He still does very exciting things, hitting homers, stealing bases, making very flashy plays, etc but we are seeing the league adjust to him some. One of his biggest warts is a high GB% and he has begun to bring that down some in July sitting at 49% in the month down from a 60% on the season at one point. Nothing unexpected here. The usual cycle of rookie debuts and flashes potential, league adjusts, player must address back. He’s going to be fine!
Will Benson – Here at KYE, we’ve been touting Will Benson since before the season began. If you’ve been reading you know that I picked him to go 20/15 and be a starter. While he has yet to get a full time gig & is mostly a strong side platoon, he looks like a very good player. He has paced the Reds in July with 5 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homers, 9 runs, 12 RBI, 4 steals, a .426 wOBA, 164 wRC+, and slashing .286/.394/.625.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES made his debut. Only 30 PAs so can’t glean too much yet, but worth noting that he is here and his small sample xStats look pretty clean so far. Will be worth watching.
Pitching
Andrew Abbott – Talk about impressive. Still out-pitching the underlying numbers, but the gap is shrinking. He is good. I still expect some regression to the overall line, but he is sustaining it at the Major League level through 60+ IP.
Brandon Williamson/Ben Lively – Williamson and Lively have pitched competitive innings for Cincinnati in July. Both are exceeding their true talent level to this point, but they are eating innings and keeping the team in games. Lively currently has plus control sporting a well below MLB average BB rate, Williamson is at about league average this month. But good things happen when you command your arsenal, this is particularly true for back-end guys and can keep you competitive.
Minor League Check In
Connor Phillips – Since June’s KYE, Phillips has logged 21 IP at AAA. He has been quite successful there too. 1.71 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, & lots of Ks (but also come control issues and BBs). He is probably one of the best pitching prospects that is “next up” in the NL Central.
Noelvi Marte – 20 games at AAA in July and his line is looking very much the same as his AA line. There is an outside chance that Marte could be traded given that the big league team doesn’t really have a spot for him. While I would consider this a long shot, he is nearly ready to contribute and has a chance to be an across the board contributor with above-average power and hit tools along with being a good athlete. The rich do continue to get richer.
Rhett Lowder – Selected 7th overall in the 2023 draft Lowder has yet to debut & will likely be shut down until next season. He is one of the “safer” arms in this class. A very accomplished NCAA arm that throws a good 4-pitch mix and features a disappearing changeup as his current best offering.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is in a dogfight with the Reds at the moment. Not only are they chasing the young Reds, but the Cubs are offering a challenge from below now too. July’s fWAR status for the Crew looks like this:
Offense: 4.0 (14th)
Pitching: 3.5 (t4th)
Starters: 2.1 (8th)
Bullpen: 1.4 (t4th)
What the Reds have in the form of ability to blow up from week to week, the Brewers seem to counter with more of a steady ability to perform.
Lineup
Joey Wiemer – Wiemer followed his great June with a lackluster month of production. However, as mentioned in previous editions, there are still positive signs for the young slugger. He cut his K% down from a gross 30.7% all the way to 17.4%. This will be one of the biggest factors for Wiemer and if he were to combine the approach of July & the production of June…look out, folks.
Christian Yelich – Yelich quite simply is one of the premier players in the National League. He was the 2nd most productive player in the NL Central in the month of June (we will talk about #1 shortly). Yeli put up a .428 wOBA & a 172 wRC+. Simply put, still a great player.
William Contreras – Contreras the Younger is a really talented hitter. His production has been inconsistent in 2023, but he flashed it in July. He impacts the ball hard, 90.9 average EV and has a solid approach. Really one of his only warts that caps his output is a middling launch angle. Even with this issue, he is going to be an above average performer with the bat in his hands.
Sal Frelick – Milwaukee’s #2 prospect made his debut in late-July. Incredibly small sample size, but Frelick has the look and reputation of a professional hitter. He doesn’t boast a lot of game power, but he has a really strong approach and the hit tool is plus. He has already flashed both along with his above-average to plus speed. Will be worth watching this young man develop.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes/Freddy Peralta – In June we discussed how these two needed to figure it out. Well, in July they did just that. Post-All Star Break Burnes has made an adjustment to how he deploys his cutter and it has been paying dividends. At this point I’d say Burnes is back.
Freddy Peralta had a wonderful bounceback in July too. This month of dominance included an absolutely hellacious start against the Reds where he scattered 4 hits with 13/0 K/BB. It feels like this is the current version of Freddy P – some incredible starts counterbalanced by “meh” stuff. The stretches where he gets it rolling he is a borderline ace.
Brandon Woodruff – Began his rehab assignment in July and has reached AAA. His return is imminent (health pending).
Devin Williams/Joel Payamps – The backend duo was lights-out in July. This pair combined for a 1.2 fWAR over the month. Williams posted 10 saves, 1-1 record over 11.2 IP and Payamps rattled off 6 holds & 2 saves across 12 IP. To state it simply, these two were the best 8th/9th inning combo in all of baseball in July.
Minor League Check In
Jackson Chourio – Last month I said this about Chourio “A strong second half and his stock will absolutely explode again.” Well folks, it happened. Chourio went absolutely scorched earth in July. Just look at these numbers:
.388/.447/.718 triple slash, 1.164 OPS, 8.5/10.6 K%/BB%, .502 wOBA, 201 wRC+.
Along with these figures he had 6 2b, 2 3b, 6 homers, 9 steals, 24 runs scored, & 20 RBI.
With all due respect to Jackson Holliday, for my money, Chourio is the best prospect in baseball. He just might be the closest thing to a Tatis Jr or Ronald Acuna Jr in the minor leagues.
Luke Adams – Adams is probably right up there with Tyler Black in terms of breakout hitters in the Milwaukee farm system. He put up an incredible July, walking more than he struck out and producing to the tune of a .477 wOBA & 189 wRC+. The 2022 12th round pick looks like he is the real deal.
Tyler Black – Black kept things going smoothly in July. He appears to have mastered AA and is ready for a new challenge. While I do not think it is coming soon, we might see him playing in the majors before the end of the season.
Jacob Misiorowski – Misiorowski earned the call to AA in July. Really small sample so far, but it hasn’t gone great yet. Expect him to iron it out with more experience at the level.
Brock Wilken – The Brewers 1st round pick, selected at 18th overall Wilken is a pure slugger. Terrific approach and plus-plus power are the big selling points. Might need to move off of 3B, but he was picked for the bat. He has yet to debut.
Chicago Cubs
Chicago finds themselves in the mix for the division at this point. The month broke down like this with regards to fWAR performance:
Offense: 5.0 (6th)
Pitching: 2.8 (18th)
Starters: 1.6 (t14th)
Bullpen: 0.4 (t17th)
Here are just a few of the performers that stood out from this past month.
Lineup
Cody Bellinger – Bellinger was tied for the most fWAR (1.8) posted in the entire National League in July. Belli hit 8 homers, roped 5 doubles, and produced a .467 wOBA & 198 wRC+ on the month. This performance is backed up by the underlying figures from July, but it seems that he is outperforming what his peripherals suggest to some degree still.
Dansby Swanson – Lieutenant Dans had an unspectacular month, but not “bad.” He remains a solid and probably underrated player by virtue of having a well rounded game without any standout “box score” tools.
Mike Tauchman – Tauchman is a journeyman that has been in search of a solid role for most of his career. His July saw him earn close to steady PAs and he rewarded the Cubs with a strong performance.
Seiya Suzuki/Christopher Morel – Suzuki has had a disjointed season so far. July was not that notable on the stat sheet but his underlying metrics hint that his true talent is better than what he has shown to date in 2023.
Morel has been featured in this piece almost every month. He is a fascinating study in the ups & downs of a tools over present skills player. When he is “hot” the production is enough to overlook the warts. When he is “cold” it can get ugly. He approached a 40% K rate in July but still produced a .349 wOBA & 120 wRC+.
Pitching
Jameson Taillon – Old friend Jameo pieced together a great July. Across 5 starts Taillon went 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 24/8 K/BB. While it was not terribly flashy, it was a good month and he looks healthier than he has for most of the season to date.
Bullpen – Outside of Alzolay, who has been very sharp all year, most of the rest of the bullpen faltered. Leiter, Merryweather, & Fulmer all had tough goes in July. Javier Asaad picked up the slack and had 19.1 strong innings with a sub-1.00 ERA & WHIP.
Justin Steele – Steele’s July was good, but not great. His command continued to be plus and kept his results in check despite his not being all that sharp. His season has been a success so far and he should keep chugging along with his breakout as long as the command sticks around.
Kyle Hendricks – We can probably just copy and paste last month’s blurb here. Hendricks just keeps rolling with quality innings and his trademark plus plus command.
Minor League Check In
Cade Horton – Horton remains one of the Cubs best pitching prospects. July wasn’t tremendous, but he did close the month out with a wonderful start to carry into August.
Ben Brown – Brown is the most likely to debut in 2023 of all Cubs pitching prospects. His big issue will be finding his command consistently. While he has yet to do so at AAA, it seems likely that he will be a Major League caliber pitcher in some capacity on the strength of his slider alone.
Owen Cassie – Cassie had himself a time in July. We haven’t discussed him yet, but July has him on the map again. He possesses big time, top of the scale raw power that FanGraphs slaps a 70 present/80 future grade on. July saw him keep his approach sound and it led to some big production with a .480 wOBA & 187 wRC+ in AA. As is the key with his profile, keeping the K% and approach in check will be the key to his ultimate output.
Haydn McGeary – McGeary’s July in itself was not incredibly notable, but he is an interesting 1B prospect. It remains to be seen if he can hit for enough power to be an impact bat, but his season has been pretty strong on the whole. A definite bat to keep an eye on in this system.
Matt Shaw – Selected 13th overall in the draft, Shaw has debuted and already finds himself playing in A+. Shaw is just an across-the-board ball player. All of his scouting reports give him a chance to have above average hit/power along with average to above speed/defense it is also often mentioned that he has that dawg in em’ when it comes to being a baseball rat.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals were sellers at the 2023 deadline. However, the offense was quite good in July. Total fWAR by hitters/starters/bullpen looked like:
Offense: 5.9 (2nd)
Pitching: 3.6 (3rd)
Starters: 2.2 (7th)
Bullpen: 1.4 (t3rd)
The pitching is almost certain to regress in overall output going forward, but the offense should remain productive.
Lineup
Lars Nootbar – Preseason darling Nootbar had himself a month in July. 6 homers, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 24 runs, and 12 RBI. It looks like he is healthy at the moment and his performance backs that notion up.
Brendan Donovan – Donovan’s leveling up season was cut short by an arm injury that will keep him out the rest of the way. A disappointing end for him, but he should be a key cog in the Cardinals core going forward.
Tyler O’Neill – A poor start, off the field concerns, and injury have O’Neill playing catch up to expectation. Canada’s most jacked son is the type of player that has a tantalizing set of tools that will keep earning him chances at regular playing time. A relatively small, 41 PA sample size saw O’Neill trending in the right direction by keeping the Ks in check sporting a 17.1/19.5 BB%/K%. If this sticks, O’Neill figures to be a prominent member of the Red Birds lineup.
Pitching
Jordan Hicks/Jordan Montgomery/Jack Flaherty – The trade deadline saw the Cards say goodbye to this trio of pitchers. Know Your Enemy would like to issue a fond farewell to them and wish them luck in their new homes in the American League. We’ll see you in the funny papers, boys.
Steven Matz – Matz had a wonderful July. He had the benefit of some good matchups, but he has also added some velocity to his sinker that is making his entire arsenal play better. It remains to be seen if this velocity gain will stick, but it did through his 29 innings in July. He looks good right now!
Giovanny Gallegos/JoJo Romero – Gallegos & Romero tied the Milwaukee 8th/9th pairing fWAR output on the month with a combined 1.2. While Gallegos was not the closer at this time, he now finds himself in that spot with the departure of Hicks. He is a capable RP and should be able to handle the closer role when called upon.
Minor League Check In
Tink Hence – Tink’s July was a continuance of his June. He is adapting to AA well and still presents as one of the premier pitching prospects in the minor leagues. The command waivered just a bit and saw his BB rate jump to 7.5%, still comfortably solid, but a hair off nonetheless. It isn’t impossible to see him make his way to AAA, but that will depend on how aggressive St. Louis wants to get with moving the youngster.
Masyn Winn – Perhaps best known for his huge throwing arm at short, Winn went on a huge power binge in July. He mashed 8 homers, 8 doubles, 3 triples, with a .489 wOBA & 183 wRC+. He will likely see time in the Majors down the stretch and should his bat keep trending like this, he’s got a real chance at being an impact player with an all around above-average base of skills.
Chase Davis – The PAC 12 standout, Davis was the 21st pick in the draft this year. Davis has made his professional debut with an assignment to Low A. He possesses tremendous power and a track record of not chasing bad pitches. In his brief time in Low A he has had some swing & miss issues, but the sample is far too small to draw much from. He is an exciting prospect.
The division is still a dogfight at the top. There are scenarios that can develop yet where any of Cincinnati, Milwaukee, or Chicago could take this thing. The month of August will help to clear this up some, but there is a possibility that we get even less separation between the top 3 contenders. Join us again next month and we will find out what happened and who stood out!
Steel City Pirates 