Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Finish Strong?

8-7-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Different sport of course, but happy birthday to Sidney Crosby, the longtime and almost universally respected captain of our hockey team here in Pittsburgh.

Sid is easily in the top 5 hockey players all time, and by the time all is said and done, he’ll have played 2 solid decades in “small market” Pittsburgh and regardless of how he finishes his career, he’ll have minimally delivered 3 cups.

If Hockey’s economics were structured like MLB, he’d have been a Rangers or Kings player 15 years ago.

This team, and this owner don’t help themselves as much as they could or should, I don’t absolve them of that, but in a league like this, there are certain realities, this is one of them. Doesn’t mean you can’t win, it just means it’s a hell of a lot harder.

Let’s jump into this week’s 5 Thoughts.

1. Meritocracy

The Pirates have used this as a goal. They’ve used it to explain playing time decisions, they’ve used it to explain call up decisions. I understood the meaning, and sentiment of course, but functionally, if you were honest about it, there was simply no way to truly practice this prior to about 2 weeks ago.

Keep in mind, this isn’t about talent level. When we discuss that, we’re talking about a player’s perceived or expected ceiling. In other words, Termarr Johnson’s ceiling is higher than Josh Palacios or Conner Joe, clearly, but he has a long way to go to reach their level of production at the MLB level, or more accurately, the belief he could at least match their production at this level. He should absolutely be a better player, but you can’t make a meritocracy argument here. Just like you couldn’t take a military cadet at West Point with a tested IQ of 165 and think he’d be better right now than a currently serving General with 5 or 6 active duty battles under his belt.

Point is though, we are officially to the point where the sentiment is lined up with real options.

That’s what leads to a guy like Nick Gonzales being sent back to AAA. Again, his ceiling is higher than Alika Williams, but Alika is outplaying him and his ceiling isn’t exactly light years behind Nick’s. So, based on merit, Alika for now, wins the playing time in MLB and Nick earns a trip back to AAA to prove he can improve on what we’ve seen from him so far.

He won’t be the last.

Doesn’t mean they won’t have to take shots. Oneil Cruz for instance. When he returns, he’s likely going to replace someone here who might very well matter.

The goal of this whole thing was to get to the point where we were no longer able to pick from 5-6 guys who had long since proven they don’t belong here, and move it along to sending productive and interesting players down for other productive and interesting players.

The harder these decisions get, the better this thing is likely looking.

Point is, what was a punchline is now a reality. Barring injuries, prospects now need to perform to get the call, at least in the field, on the mound, probably lagging behind a bit.

2. Asking Different Questions About Johan Oviedo Now

As the season started, think back with me now, Johan Oviedo even being the 5th starter seemed in question. It took JT Brubaker having Tommy John out of nowhere to procure an opportunity. He’d shown enough that the Pirates likely could have chosen to put him in the pen or easily could have made the case starting in AAA for a while was in his best interest.

Well, what could have happened, did, and to his credit he’s at this point not only proven he can start, he’s proven he has the potential to be a workhorse.

He’s still fighting through some inconsistency, but really, who isn’t in MLB that isn’t universally considered one of the best of the best.

All that being said, we started out asking “Is Oviedo a bullpen arm or a starter?”. And now, we’re asking things more like how good can he be in this rotation?

We critique Ben Cherington’s every move, because that’s what fans and bloggers do, and this deal in particular still has room to get better if Malcom Nunez ever progresses to MLB, but right now, right this second, Oviedo all by himself makes the Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton move to St. Louis (an inside the division trade that I’ve heard is completely out of the question after the Carlos Santana to Milwaukee deal) a total win.

Finding an effective and under team control starting rotation piece that stepped in during that very season for 9 weeks of a starter and roughly a season of a reliever, folks, that’s the damn GM lottery.

Again, moving Quintana and Stratton hurt the 2022 product. GM doesn’t care about winning, GM doesn’t care about the fans, GM doesn’t know what he’s doing… Had they kept both, maybe they win 2,3, hell I’ll give you 5 more games last year. Now take a stab at where they’d be right now without Oviedo.

This is the type of stuff that has to happen if it’s ever going to work here. Cherington must find players who are blocked, or used differently than they believe is optimal for the talent and acquire them for what equates to nothing important.

For instance, they tried this twice last year at the deadline. Colin Holderman was acquired from the Mets for Daniel Vogelbach, he’s not had nearly the success that Oviedo has, but he too was a big armed reliever that the Pirates thought potentially could start. They got him here, opened the hood and realized he was best suited to be in the pen. I’m not claiming he’s been some wild success as we sit here, but the risk was worth it, and they probably have a guy who can help them in the back of their bullpen for years to come.

Now we’re seeing the same type of thoughts with Andre Jackson whom they claimed from the Dodgers. It’s again a win win. If he can pitch at all, solid bullpen pickup potentially, if he can start, hey, super win.

That’s 3 players acquired for nobody who was going to be here in 2024. Guys they didn’t draft, sign, and importantly they didn’t invest all the time developing them, they tweaked them.

Moving on from Quintana, Vogelbach, Hill, Santana, Choi, you know, guys who aren’t in the long range plans for short range upgrades with potential to be long range pieces always hurts in the moment, but trust your eyes, it works too at times and bluntly, it’s a process they’ll have to keep doing.

3. Nick Gonzales, Bust?

Not yet. Not after 100 at bats in MLB.

Nick can play multiple infield positions, that part of his game has, and continues to look good. The bat however, well, he has the problems many of us observed and critiqued as early as draft day in 2020.

As Craig Toth wrote in a recent Through the Prospect Porthole “Prior to the 2020 MLB Draft, scouts saw his strength as having a short/compact swing with a ton of bat speed, that could move through the strike-zone due his control. At the time they also questioned his power due to him hitting inside the friendly confines of Presley Askew Field at New Mexico State; often drawing comps to the recently DFA’d Keston Hiura of the Brewers.”

Again, Nick’s issues aren’t a surprise, he strikes out too much for a non traditional power hitter. He can still be effective, can even wind up being a key piece to this whole thing. Believe me, if and when this thing gets where they want it to go, they won’t have 26 All-Stars.

If indeed he winds up being a contributor as opposed to leading the charge, hey, so be it. Would that make him a disappointing number one pick? Sure, but not the end of the world either.

I don’t say things like this to glaze over Ben Cherington’s first selection. I’m not pretending it doesn’t matter when you don’t get what you’re hoping for from a first rounder. It matters quite a bit, but it also is plain to see league wide, first round doesn’t equal guaranteed star.

Look, it’s too early to decide what Gonzales is, but look at the landscape right now. Cruz, Peguero, Marcano, Gonzales, Bae, Termarr Johnson, Williams, Triolo, Cheng, folks, Nick has a ton of competition just in his own franchise let alone the league. Now if we work through all these names and still don’t feel we have a 2B and SS combo we love, that my friends is a problem.

Right now, it’s nothing more than a kid who simply has to improve on a few things and because the roster is better, the team can easily make the case more seasoning is needed, and not hurting the MLB team in the process. Nick has every opportunity to either find a way to develop more meaningful power, or focus more on the contact aspect of his game.

Of all that, my biggest fear with Nick is that he does exactly what this club preaches offensively. That sets up a slamming your head against a brick wall situation, because honestly, I don’t think it’s in his skill set to make the philosophy work for him (we’ll find few are the longer it goes this way). He either needs to walk more, strike out less, or hit more homeruns. All 3 preferably, but I don’t believe that’s in there.

4. Is Baily Falter – More Than a Fill In?

Impossible to say honestly. One thing is fairly certain though, he’s going to get the last 2 months of this season to audition. We’ve all been through the list of pitchers who have some claim to being members of the starting rotation in 2024, Keller, and Oviedo are the only two locks, then you have Priester, Jones, Ortiz, Contreras, Nicolas, Kranick, Solometo, Wolf, and yes, Falter, and at some point later in the year, Skenes if he shoves from the jump.

They’ll have to sign some veterans, I’d recommend 2 even looking at that list and even if they don’t agree with me, we know they’ll get at least one. 2 spots up for grabs, 1 if they do what I suggested.

That’s a lot of competition for Falter, but it is for everyone on that list too, and as one of the 3 lefties I mentioned, he’s probably even got a head start.

Solid acquisition though regardless. This team severely lacks depth in the Starting rotation at the top level of the system and more than that, they lacked left handed pitchers with a snowball’s chance in hell of impacting the league before July of 2024, and even that is if Solometo just keeps making it look easy.

All of those options could be Starters for this club, but I’d suggest if they truly want to enter 2024 with an eye toward winning a division or even hunting down a wild card, they simply have no choice but to add in a seasoned and tested starter or two. And I don’t mean guys you hope get beaten out by prospects, I mean bonafide starters that have a track record of carrying an innings load and being seen as at least a middle of the rotation arm.

So, does Falter matter? Well, not to backtrack, but Oviedo wasn’t supposed to be this crucial either in 2023 was he?

Have an open mind, the rotation might not be the mix you thought it’d be, but it also is very much so an opportunity for anyone who wants to grab it with both hands and not let go. Including Baily Falter.

5. Payroll in 2024 is Likely Only Going Up Marginally

Bob Cheap, I know. Yes it’s very true, but I also think in 2024 it’s going to be more about what they have, and less about what they’ll spend.

This team has needs to be sure, They need Starting pithing as I outlined in number 4, they need a first baseman and they could use an upgrade in the outfield. They’ll sign McCutchen but he’s certainly not going to get a raise on his 5 million dollar salary.

Now, I can go around the diamond and suggest it’s pretty easy to bring in a vet here and there to upgrade a position, but with all the kids they have to work through, I just don’t see them trying to do that as opposed to working through these prospects.

If they go get a guy like Julio Urias, he’s going to command 25Million AAV most likely, and yes, I know this isn’t something this team has considered in the past, he’d fill a real issue for years, cause he’s not coming here for a season, you’d have to offer him 6-7 years as he enters his age 27 season. This is his big career payday.

This team still wouldn’t hit 100Million.

This situation is exactly what they were shooting for, and the hope is you have enough youngsters actively getting better so you can afford to augment in a meaningful way. This is also the part of the equation the Pirates usually don’t even attempt.

Until I see different, I can’t make the mental jump that this off season will be different. But for that 25 million, I can say this team goes from young upstarts trying to compete and get better, and becomes a rotation that can mask some of what comes with youth and help drag a young roster forward.

There could also be extensions in there like Keller or Bednar, but even so, if a certain number means “trying” to you, I’d suggest next year it’s only going to get so big.

Spend money big on the two main open spots. The starting rotation and first base, maybe you make this happen. Spend like a scared to death to make a mistake GM and ensure incremental improvement at best.

Oh, and maybe coach them properly too, but this is about money.

First base for instance, they spent about 11 million, folks, that’s more than this team usually does, and that won’t even get you Rhys Hoskins, he’ll get somewhere in the 17-20 million dollar AAV range.

These are two premium needs, and to me dipping a toe in won’t help. Sign better quality free agents for a few years and if you have better options internally in 2025 or 2026, move them for better prospects than you’d get from any 1 year signing.

I know what this franchise is, and what they’ve done. But as a fan, I’m going to ask for what I think they need, not what I think they’ll swallow.