Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Excuses & Band Aids, The Bill Always Comes Due

8-28-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m going to say a ton today, so I’m not going to spend much time up here. Let’s get into it.

1. Pitching Talent VS Pitching Development

Far too often when discussing Pirates topics you come to a painful, and often deflating realization, this team much of the time is actively in conflict with itself.

Talent will get you to a certain point in baseball. Suffice to say if you managed to have an organization pick you up in any of the seemingly hundreds of ways talent comes to get acquired, at some point, you’ve been a talented, and in many cases the most talented player on your team on the way.

The Pirates have acquired pitchers who did well upon arrival, but just as often, regression follows. Sadly almost just as often, once the team has thrown their hands in the air we’ve watched those same players go off and “get fixed”.

The Pirates must improve in this area and the problems start with their overriding philosophies, much like in the batter’s box.

Oscar Marin was a young hire, brought into a young coaching staff to implement ideas and theories he had honed in the Texas Rangers system that made a name for him. He was seen as an innovator, an expert in understanding and improving the mechanics of pitchers with a healthy dose of analytical data implementation on top.

That’s a long winded way of saying Oscar was a young hot shot.

Since coming to the Pirates he’s had some successes, mostly with veterans. Tyler Anderson ate up his training, it took him from a struggling veteran to a coveted free agent starter in little more than 5 months of work. Jose Quintana vocally credited Oscar with helping him recapture what made him successful in his youth, find ways to refine his offerings to adapt to his new limitations that his body placed on him. Again, coveted free agent.

We of course didn’t get to see what he could have accomplished with Vince Velasquez, but they were certainly off to a good start right? Even Rich Hill had his moments here, he was certainly serviceable, and my goodness has that fallen off a cliff after being moved to San Diego.

That’s all great, you certainly want that skill set, but why doesn’t that translate to his own young pitchers?

Mitch Keller went outside the org to find himself, but Oscar Marin was involved and while he’s had some dips this season, Marin has successfully helped him pull out of the nosedive more than once in 2023. Keller has been through quite a bit, that struggle my it’s nature makes him more like a veteran than a kid being introduced to MLB.

Johan Oviedo has forged a spot on this team, but Marin has never really been able to get him to more successfully work with the pitch clock, and he’s struggled to start games clean, often finding himself, or more accurately, finding what’s working later in games, but the problem has persisted for the entirety of the season.

Luis Ortiz was incredible when called up last year but he showed up to camp this year with less velocity, nowhere near as sharp as he had been. Now, that’s not Oscar’s fault, but I’d like to think if you find a prospect who rises from lottery ticket level all the way to dominating the Big Leagues for a few weeks with a punishing slider and devastating fastball, you’d make sure he understood now wasn’t the time to take his foot off the gas work wise.

Roansy Contreras now looks like an entirely different pitcher. His situation has gotten so bad the team was forced to take him to an independent pitching doctor in Seattle. The pitching mechanics wizard seemingly has no answer for what exactly has become of his fastball. What was so dominating is now almost completely impotent.

Quinn Priester needs to improve his fastball, learn to lean on it more, so they send him to AAA and have him almost exclusively use his soft stuff.

Folks, I’m not sure I’m ready to call for Marin’s head here but I am ready to say he’s fallen in love with his theories, and more than that, his theories and methods simply don’t work for everyone.

Player-centric as was advertised, well, there can be no one method that coexists with that thought. Marin isn’t on the same plane as Andy Haines in my mind, but if your entire success plan is built on the premise of acquiring and developing your own stars it stands to reason we should have more than a few examples of that actually happening as we sit here in the 4th year of his tutelage.

2. Adding Obstacles Instead of Clearing the Path

What am I talking about? Maybe some examples will do the job here. There are so many of them even after reading mine, all it’ll do is prompt you to come up with some I’ve missed. So let’s do it, I’ll list off some of what I’m talking about, you fill in the blanks for me.

Bring Up a Rookie, Then Tie His Shoelaces Together – Rookies learn all they can in the minor leagues, but there’s simply no replacement for facing MLB players. When Rookies come up they live off adrenaline to a degree, and of course talent, but often the Pirates take a player who are used to playing every day and immediately sit him or bat him 8th in front of someone who will offer little to no protection. Even if they overcome this and perform, very good chance they don’t play the next day. How can you expect a player to develop consistency when you won’t give them any?

Ask Pitchers to Become Viable Starters, Treat Them Instead Like They Aren’t Capable – The idea of the opener has merit, it really does, but it only truly works with a fully matured rotation and bullpen. There’s a reason only Tampa pulls it off, it’s hardly because nobody else thinks it could work. Now how do you get fully matured? Allowing players to actually settle in to roles, fully trust their stuff, and who they are. You bring up a guy like Andre Jackson who’s pitched pretty damn well for you, then suddenly show him we don’t think you’re, you know, “real” starter level. Here’s an opener. To his credit, he barely missed a beat, but not every youngster you try that with will respond the same.

Think of your examples, anyone who’s watched this team over the past 4 seasons should have plenty.

3. Patience

If you ever wonder why this club expects fans to have never ending patience, look no farther than the hitting approach they preach. Just keep waiting for those results boys, it’s just as sure to come as a World Series title.

We called for change back in 2019, and we got it, but unfortunately, we hatched a new issue in the process.

The last regime didn’t bring in enough talent. This one brings in talent, then blunts whatever sharp edge they came with.

As a General Manager, I’ve liked the plan, and I’ve liked much of the talent they’ve brought in, I just don’t like what they’ve done with it, and if I’m honest I’m increasingly less sure this group of coaches is capable of doing better than they have.

One thing I think we see with this group is an unyielding allegiance to their beliefs. Look, that is either admirable or foolish beyond measure, we’ll surely find out soon. They believe in the hitting plan even as they watch it fail, watch it stunt growth, see players execute it to near perfection and still not realize perfection of this plan is in and of itself not an effective method of scoring runs.

We see them patiently watch pitchers lose velocity with little more than “trust the process” or even overt frustration they just can’t help but vocalize.

“Patience is the calm acceptance that things can happen in a different order than the one you have in mind.” – David Allen

Thing is, if we were seeing things happen in a different order, hey, some of them should be happening quicker too right?

The next and arguably biggest question facing this team, yes, even bigger than how much will Bob spend, is this, is Ben Cherington capable of recognizing what’s going wrong and have the fortitude to admit it, and make changes.

From John Baker the Director of player development on down through Derek Shelton and his on field staff. Any sacred cows and you can’t be intellectually honest about the issues or how to fix them.

Loyalty, patience, respect, they all matter and they all have a place, but there is no greater strength than admitting past mistakes and correcting them. Openly, honestly and fully.

Bob Nutting can be blamed for payroll, he can also be blamed for sticking his nose in on some decisions, but this stuff, the on field and developmental institutions, he’s not touching that.

When you know you can’t spend with the big boys, you better not miss on the stuff you can do as good as, if not better.

4. Starting Pitching Free Agents

What has been realistic in the past as we’ve watched this rebuild unfold shouldn’t be the same as what we consider realistic this offseason.

Look, I’ve told you all along I don’t believe in Bob Nutting. I think he’ll spend more because arbitration to a degree will force him to, and of course they’ll sign some free agents, but believe, no, I’ll need to see it.

All that said, there are signings that are out of the question because even if Nutting is to open the wallet, there is simply are some that this team, or any market like them just aren’t even going to get a crack at.

That’s just the reality of this system baseball is operating under.

Another reality, some team will wind up paying a guy like Carlos Carrasco 8-10 million next year. That’s right, he of the 3-8 record, 6.80 ERA and almost 37 trips around the sun, someone will give him that much money. Rich Hill did exactly what the Pirates hoped he would this year, that my friends is an 8 million dollar a year pitcher.

So know what you’re asking for when you suggest buying an entire rotation.

I think they need 2. One has to be a sure thing, ok, as sure as you can be about pitching anyway. The other can be a one year guy you look to move if you like but the first, he needs to have some sticking power.

Alex Wood – The big lefty hasn’t been great for the Giants, but he’s only 32, left handed and exactly the type of pitcher that Oscar Marin has had success with. I think he could be had for 8-10 million per year and at that price, even slipping to the bullpen could be worth the price.

Luis Severino – He’s had a horrible year for the Yankees but he also has a nice track record of brilliance being in there. He’ll be 30 years old and on a team like this could handle the middle of the rotation and could be had for 8-10 as well.

Martin Perez – 32 years old, and some good some bad seasons under his belt, but here is again a quality lefty who could probably be had for 10-12 million per.

Tyler Mahle – Simply hasn’t stayed healthy, not long enough to do much but when he has, he’s been super effective. This is not one I’d go longer than a year or two on, but you could feasibly get him for 6-8 million because of his fragility.

One last here, but obviously choose your own.

Jack Flaherty – He’s going to be 28 and while he’s fallen on hard times, he has the goods and youth to really be a great bargain signing. I think he could be had for 10-14 million per, and that’s truly a steal for his upside. When he’s really good, he’s every bit a top of the rotation arm, when he isn’t, he’s still better than a rookie would be at the back end.

5. Pirates Hall of Fame

I’m incredibly proud of the history of this team, Dick Groat, Elroy Face, Kent Tekulve, and Bob Friend are all worthy inductees.

But every year it’s a fresh reminder that in the past 30 years we might have 3 members to look forward to and one is still playing.

The Pirates need to do better to make sure living candidates get their due as well. Next year Manny Sanguillen must be one of them. He’s a constant presence with the team, easily a worthy member and nobody could possibly deserve the adoration more.

Next, throw a bone to the 90’s Pirates. Barry Bonds is the obvious guy here but because it will be controversial (although I have it on strong authority it will happen) give us Drabek or Van Slyke. Someone with color video highlights would do.

As a fan though you’d hope the team recognizes how few there have been to choose from recently. Signings like Reynolds and Hayes have potential to add their names to this list so let’s hope the team realizes they need to do more.