A Healthy Hayes Does Wonders for Buccos

8-30-23 – By Cody Flavell – @LetsTalkPIT on Twitter

*Editor’s Note – This is Cody Flavell’s first piece for Inside the Bucs Basement, so if you don’t follow him, do, he’s a talented writer and we’re happy to add him in here and look for his weekly Bucco Blast columns starting this week. – Gary

Let me begin this by saying it makes me happy to see Ke’Bryan Hayes succeeding at the major league-level. Since his month-long rookie season tear in 2020, things have been bleak for Hayes at the plate. His defense has always been Gold Glove-caliber, however, giving him a pass for the offense.

As 2023 began, it seemed Hayes was entering the season healthy and ready to do some damage. Up until about a month ago, Hayes’ glove proceeded anything he did offensively. Again, nothing wrong with that…unless you receive a long-term contract to be a franchise cornerstone for a future winning Pirates team.

Hayes returned from the injured list August 2nd and hasn’t looked back. Actually, there might not be a hotter third baseman in the league in that time frame. Hayes is batting .320 with six home runs and 20 RBI’s in 24 games since his return from the IL. His season numbers have improved drastically as he owns a .269/.310/.442 slash line on the year. Those numbers aren’t going to wow many people but considering where he was pre-August, those are beyond respectable numbers.

Hayes has suffered from back issues for a large portion of his career. They’ve zapped his ability to get around on the ball. It’s thrown his timing off. It’s similar to what happened to Neil Walker throughout his career. If the back flared up, things got out of whack. Going on and off the injured list does nothing but hinder any progress a player can make. Any bit of a hitting streak was met with a stiff/sore back that derailed that momentum.

It’s not like Hayes isn’t talented. As he rose through the ranks of the minors, he spent the majority of his time as a top prospect. The glove was always going to play in the big leagues. He didn’t possess a ton of raw power but he still has enough pop and posted higher than a .700 OPS in every season in the minors. He generated a lot of extra-base hits. The guys can hit and he’s proven that he’s good when healthy.

Even if he isn’t getting a lot of hits, Hayes still has a .310 OBP on the season. He draws a fair share of walks. This has made the top half of the lineup much more effective. It allows for the Pirates to bat Hayes in the leadoff spot with Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen following Hayes when the Pirates deploy their best lineup.

The leadoff hitter is obviously an important spot of the lineup. The splits between the Pirates winning and losing when Hayes plays is massive. In wins Hayes’s slash line is as follows: .341/.391/.540 for a .930 OPS. When Hayes plays and the Pirates lose, he’s slashing .209/.240/.360 for a .600 OPS. Hayes has 19 hits in 55 first inning at-bats for a .346 batting average. He sets the tone for the Buccos offense early.

I don’t know that the August version of Hayes is the end-all-be-all of a healthy Hayes but it might be something close to this and that makes the contract 100% worth it. You’d love to see this kind of production all the time but over 162 games, that can’t be expected. What can be expected, however, is that Hayes is even 70% of this player when healthy. That would go a long way in improving the Pirates’ chances of contending in a given year.