Know Your Enemy – August Edition

9-2-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

National League Central Standings
	Win	Loss
Milwaukee Brewers	75	59	🔼
Chicago Cubs	72	63	🔼
Cincinnati Reds	70	67	🔽
Pittsburgh Pirates	62	73	🔁
St. Louis Cardinals	58	77	🔁

There was some shuffling in the standings in August. As we discussed the Reds did fall victim to the ice cold rookie month & the Cubs fully capitalized. Milwaukee held serve at the top and are fighting to keep their spot away from all comers. There are some notable matchups including an early Chicago/Cincinnati 4 game set and what could be a momentous 3 game series to end the regular season between Milwaukee and Chicago. 

Let’s jump in:

Milwaukee Brewers 

The Brew Crew remained a steady presence atop the standings with a 17-9 month of August. Outside of the Braves & Dodgers, the National League has a good amount of parody in the next tier of playoff contenders. Milwaukee sits firmly near the top of this group and given their steady performance & pitching depth (when healthy) they are a real contender.

August’s fWAR status for the Crew looks like this:

Offense: 3.6 (13th)

Pitching: 3.6 (6th)

Lineup

William Contreras – Contreras was the brightest performer for the Brewers in August behind a .364 wOBA & a 129 wRC+. Strong plate approach, strong EVs, good defensive value – Contreras is a ballplayer, folks. It is easier said than done, but if he can tweak that launch angle he is going to be a true beast. Even if he can’t, he might be the premier catcher in the division. 

Joey Wiemer – Wiemer’s positive plate approach gains from July all but vanished in August. The approach and hit tool absolutely must develop for him to be a starter, let alone an impact player. With his profile as a strong outfield defender, he will get plenty of chances. Right now he looks like a part time player due to our next guy.

Sal Frelick – Frelick played some good baseball in August. While I do think he overperformed his underlying numbers, the talent is undeniable to the point where he might bea player that continually exceeds his peripherals. He is a real 4 tool player with only his power lagging behind some. Frelick should be a fixture at the or near the top of this lineup for years to come. 

Christian Yelich – Yelich had his first real “down” month in August. Not much to add beyond noting that he was off his game!

Pitching

Freddy Peralta – Yeah, Freddy was an Ace in August. 30IP, 5 starts, 5 wins, 2.10 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 46 Ks, 10BB. Scary stuff when he is rolling, as predicted last month.

Brandon Woodruff – Returned to the rotation in August. 28.2IP, 3.45 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 37K, 7BB. This is a World Series caliber rotation if they’re all rolling at once. No one will want to face them in a playoff series the way that things are trending.

Corbin Burnes – Burnes didn’t hum at peak efficiency in August but each time he toes the rubber he gives the Crew a chance to win. While it has been something of a “off” year for Burnes, he is still one of the best in baseball at limiting quality & hard contact. And while Mets starter Kodai Senga & Rays starter Aaron Civale have usurped him as having the best cutter in baseball, Burnes still has the 3rd best. Yes, he is still an ace.

Devin Williams – One of the best closers in the game. 5 more saves in August, a 1.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 15ks in just 9 IP. When the “airbender” is working it is amazing to watch it almost defy physics. 

Minor League Check In

Jackson Chourio –  After one of the more insane months of production in all of the minor league season, Chourio cooled off at AA in August. However, it should be noted that as the calendar turns over to September Chourio has become just the 2nd teenager since 2005 to post a 20 homer/20 steal season in AA. Just a special, special talent. Still hoping he might get a late September call up, but given that he is still at AA, seeming less likely by the day.

Tyler Black – Black got the call to AAA in early August. While the surface stats aren’t popping yet, he has carried over an advanced plate approach and the power/speed combo that led to his prospect ascendency in 2023. My gut says we see him on the big club for the playoff push.

Jacob Misiorowski – Misiorowski took a nice step forward at AA with a strong line in 3 August starts including a 6 inning, 12k performance. One of the premier starting pitching prospects in all of baseball.

Chicago Cubs

Chicago has staked a claim to the upper levels of the division on the back of a 18-9 month of August that included a 2-1 series win versus Milwaukee to end the month.

The month broke down like this with regards to fWAR performance:

Offense: 4.2 (10th)

Pitching: 2.5 (10th)

Here are just a few of the performers that stood out from this past month.

Lineup 

Cody Bellinger – We can confidently say that Cody Bellinger is a dude again. You’ve got to really respect what he has done in 2023. He has almost totally reinvented himself as a player & salvaged his career. While he isn’t the power hitting monster of his early Dodgers career, he is now just an all around good hitter. He should post a 20/20 season and will likely slash .300/.350/.500. Hats off to him & the Cubs for taking the shot on him. His free agency journey will be incredibly interesting to watch. 

Dansby Swanson – Lieutenant Dans continued his trend of a bit of a downer month in August. The production was not impressive but the season as a whole is still indicative of a bedrock, above-average across the board talent. I wouldn’t rule out a hot September run here based on the xStats. 

Jeimer Candelario – Smack dab in the middle of a career year, the Cubs added Candelario at the deadline and he rewarded them with a August line of: 14 runs, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 12 RBI, 2 steals, .346 wOBA, & a 118 wRC+. Great move for the Cubs and a big boost to their playoff hopes.

Seiya Suzuki – Seiya finally popped some in August. In 85 PA’s he had a strong showing with 17 runs, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers, 13 RBI, a .321/.365/.641 triple slash, .416 wOBA, & a 166 wRC. His continued performance is going to be vital to the Cubs as the season closes. 

Pitching

Jordan Wicks – Wicks had a hellacious debut in late August. He went 5 innings allowing 2 hits, 1 BB, and 9ks. Don’t expect him to show this kind of dominance all the time, but he is a very good pitcher that features a nasty changeup.

Javier Assad – Assaad was very useful for the Cubs in August. He largely out pitched his underlying stats, but no one can argue with the results. 

Julian Merryweather/Mark Leither Jr/Adbert Alzolay – These guys hurled some ball in August. A trio of lockdown RPs will help boost any pitching staff.

Justin Steele – He re-found his command that escaped in July. Steele has been one of the true breakout pitchers of 2023 and a big piece for this Cubs turnaround. He had 4 wins in 6 August starts & he piled up 41/7 K/BB. A staple of the Chicago rotation.

Kyle Hendricks –  I am literally just able to copy this from month to month. “We can probably just copy and paste last month’s blurb here. Hendricks just keeps rolling with quality innings and his trademark plus plus command.” 

Minor League Check In

Matt Shaw – Folks, we can confirm that Matt Shaw does, in fact, got that dawg in em’. Shaw totally decimated the A+ level earning himself a call up to AA after just 20 games. Looking like an early hit in the draft for the Cubbies here. Fun player.

Cade Horton – Horton rocked AA in August. 23IP, 28/8 K/BB ratio, 1.57 ERA, & a 1.00 WHIP. The Cubs rebuild is humming right now. 

Ben Brown – Jordan Wicks beat him to the majors, but Brown has found himself on the IR and has had some lackluster outings at AAA. I still expect him to be a major league caliber pitcher given the strength of his stuff, but not sure we can expect him until 2024 at this rate.

Owen Cassie – Cassie continued to impress in August. I am beginning to think he is one of the most underrated prospects in the division at this point. He now has 2 straight months in AA with a wOBA over .400 and a near elite level wRC+ (150+). Huge power & the usual K concerns that come with that profile – but his BB% & approach gains are sticking for now, at least.

Haydn McGeary – Had a dreadful average of .192 in August, but looking a bit deeper we see signs of him producing still with a .357 wOBA & a respectable 109 wRC+. While I am not certain that he is going to be a star, McGeary has the traits to be a solid piece at the MLB level.

Pete Crow-Armstrong – Just felt the need to mention PCA here because I think we could see him get the call in September. A personal favorite of mine. He has the look of being an elite level prospect and a possible All Star MLB talent. Waiting in the wings at AAA & playing well.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds continued to hit a bit of a “young team”/growing pains skid in August going 10-17.

Offense: 0.4 (28th)

Pitching: 2.0 (15th)

Even as this team has started to hit a rough patch, they have a great opportunity to outpace nearly every expectation that was placed on them before the year began.

Lineup

Matt McLain – McLain was hot the heels of D-Backs superstar Corbin Carroll in the NL ROY race, but he was felled by an oblique injury and has hit the IR with no real clear timetable for a return. You hate to see it, but an undeniably good debut for the young man.

Spencer Steer – An okay month for Steer with some modest production and some acceptable numbers on the back of a .340 wOBA & a 108 wRC+.

Elly De la Cruz – Elly continued to fight through the rookie growing pains common to his player profile. He did still post some back of the baseball card stats with 17 runs, 3 doubles, 3 triples, 4 homers, 14 RBI, & 6 steals but\ the league is still exploiting his approach issues. 

Will Benson – A down month for Benson who did have some injuries in August too.

Noelvi Marte – Officially got the call to the MLB. Pretty small sample, so not much to glean yet outside of flashing some surprising speed with 5 steals in just 39 PAs & a 80th percentile sprint speed. Can see some Manny Machado-lite in his game. 

Pitching

Andrew Abbott – Abbott faced his first down month as a Major Leaguer. His underlying numbers were much better than his surface stats, but this was kind of the regression we’ve been expecting based on how hot he came out of the gates. How he responds will be interesting to watch.

Brandon Williamson- Williamson was the best pitcher on the Reds in August. He benefited from facing a weaker slate of opponents, but you have to execute against whoever is on your schedule & he did just that. He was 8th in all of baseball in K-BB% & 13th in xwOBA against. 

Graham Ashcraft – Ashcraft was probably the second best starter in Cincinnati this month. He massively outproduced his underlying numbers on the back of a low BABIP and an astronomical 91% strand rate. 

Minor League Check In

Connor Phillips – Phillips had a rough August in AAA. He did finish with a dominant start on 8/31 though. He definitely has a shot to debut this year still.

Chase Petty – A 2021 1st round pick, Petty had a good month at A+. He is a little further off, but will be worth watching for how he finishes 2023. 2024 might position him to make a late season debut next season.

Carlos Jorge – Jorge was promoted to A+ & is struggling to adjust so far. He is worth mentioning though because he totally destroyed low A. Since the Reds have promoted most every other top bat in the system, we need to take a look at some of the further out bats. Jorge is absolutely a guy to eyeball.

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis has kept on playing poorly in August putting up a 11-16 record. The team made some significant sell-offs at the deadline, so it is hard to say this sputtering finish was not to be expected.

Offense: 2.4 (19th)

Pitching: 1.3 (21st)

Lineup

Willson Contreras – The eldest Contreras was productive in August. In 88 PAs he had a .357 wOBA & a 128 wRC+. It has been a strange year for Contreras. He has mostly underperformed his career norms and his xStats. I fully expect him to have a strong finish and remain a key piece for the Cards in 2024.

Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy is chugging along with strong production as usual. He has seen his ISO dip well below career norms and sitting at .181. This could be an early sign of decline, but he, like many of his teammates, is underperforming his xStats. While some decline is likely given his age, there is no reason to see him falling off of the cliff in 2024.

Tommy Edman – While Edman has been unable to match his wonderful 2023, August saw him produce well. His ISO sat at .221 and he smashed 5 homers & 6 swipes. I do not think he is as good as his 2022 final line, but I have little doubt that he is still a very good player.

Jordan Walker – Some might be tempted to look at Walker’s 2023 to date and say he wasn’t very good. To me, this feels like an overly pessimistic take. August was good & taking his overall line and xStats in combination with his young age – the future looks bright. I fully expect him to be an All Star during his mid-to-late 20s.

Masyn Winn – Got the call in August, so I just wanted to make note of that. Insignificant sample size to draw from. We will check back in next month with a little more big league information.

Pitching

Steven Matz – Matz was reclaiming his status as a good MLB arm and then was sidelined with a lat injury. His return is unclear, but the team did say he could be brought back in a relief capacity or a starter should he return.

JoJo Romero – JoJo Romero was excellent in August. In fact, he led the Cards in fWAR for the month at 0.7. Currently a part of a closer committee, he looks like a dominant back-end of the bullpen piece.

Zach Thompson – A 2019 first round pick, Thompson put together a good August audition. He had a pretty soft schedule of opponents, but he performed and that is all you can ask in that situation. A good place to build upon heading into September.

Minor League Check In

Tekoah Roby – Newly acquired at the deadline as a part of the Jordan Montgomery trade, Roby made his Cardinals debut at AA. In 3 innings he flashed some intriguing potential and will be one to follow in this system.

Tink Hence – Tink hit a wall in August. I have not seen any reports of his stuff declining, but he has reached a career high in IP so far, so there could be a connection there.

Thomas Saggese – Saggese is another newcomer to the Cards system. His arrival has seen him really go off in AA. He was already underrated in the Texas system, but he is crusading to erase that “underrated” label. In just 7 games for the Cards he has gone off with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homers, 23 runs, 26 RBI, a triple slash of .352/.426/.714, 1.141 OPS, a .480 wOBA, & a 184 wRC+. Yikes!

This puts a bow on August in the NL Central. My current plan will be to touch on a “look back” at the season as a whole after the season concludes rather than strictly September. But things could change as the month ends and it might be appropriate to do a little bit of both. Hard to believe we are in the final month of the season, but here we are. Enjoy the last month and we will see you in early October for the last installment of Know Your Enemy 2023.