Hump Day Pirates Q&A

9-27-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Another awesome session, this one almost entirely driven on Twitter. Send me questions anytime you’d like during the week, I’ll always try to give you and your question an honest shake.

Question 1

Gary, who is the most likely middle infielder to be dealt this off season; with the return of Cruz next year they have more guys than spots. – Rob Zabowski

I could list off all the candidates here Rob, and you’d already know them all. I could make some guesses about which ones I think are more likely, and ultimately I will, but more importantly, let’s talk about how this process goes mentally.

You first have to look at “The Glut” and be sure it’s actually a glut as opposed to “Healthy Depth”. Oneil Cruz, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, Alika Williams, Tucapita Marcano round out the upper level of competition, and they’re followed by Termarr Johnson, Dariel Lopez, Tsung-Che Cheng and I’ll leave it there. You or someone else might have some other names you believe in, but that’s plenty to illustrate my point.

First things first, You can’t purposefully hurt 2024.

Meaning, even if you ultimately think Peguero or Gonzales are going to get pushed by Termarr and Cheng, that can’t mean Peggy or Gonzo are expendable in 2024. You can certainly get there by the end of 2024, but you have to consider your depth, the actual belief that some of that next wave will not only reach the league next year but also with impact must also be in play.

For where the team is, I think they probably have to drop a level and move someone from that next tier as opposed to this one.

I listed a bunch of names for “right now” but let’s be real, Marcano and Williams should probably be depth. Peggy and Gonzales will probably fight it out for 2B. Triolo will likely bounce everywhere. I didn’t even mention Bae but he too will take some ABs there. And finally, Oneil Cruz is likely their best shot at “special” from this group, at least in the near term.

The loser of the Gonzales/Peggy competition will likely lose the role to their backup a time or two throughout the season, so I’d lean Termarr (big name, high rank, potential big return), or Gonzales if only because he too has pedigree.

Question 2

Triolo as the starter at 2B in 2024 has gotten legs on Twitter and some Pirates podcasts recently, but do you think the Pirates feel the same? Personally, I really like the idea, but just have the feeling they’d prefer to see one of Peguero/Gonzales/Bae there. – Nick Cammuso

I’d like to take this opportunity to just say, my experience with this team really doesn’t lead me to them “preferring to see” very much. They tend to really mean it when they start up a competition with a 16th rounder and a 2nd rounder, in their minds, this is an entirely even competition. They may have one ahead on the expectation list, but they’re more than happy to be proven wrong.

As I sit here Nick, I see the roster starting out with Cruz, Triolo, Bae and the winner of Gonzo or Peggy in Spring training, maybe all of them. Triolo’s ability to back up Hayes, 2B and 1B is going to ensure he’s a “starter” but more along the lines of what Josh Harrison was originally intended to be. And I think he’ll get plenty of at bats doing just that.

If I’m really honest, I think we’ll see 2B used as a pivot point all season and if I’m wrong, it’ll be because someone made it impossible to move them out of the lineup. Thing is, the roster doesn’t work as well if someone isn’t floating a lot.

If you really want to talk about what they like, perhaps pay close attention to how very good Triolo looks at 1B and the emphasis on drawing more power out of his frame. That’s more of a “like to see” than anything about 2B where they have actual competition. For instance, I could see a Carlos Santana/Brandon Belt type signed and Triolo slowly stealing the gig.

Question 3

I see some potential in Rivas but I might be biased because he’s Mexican.
What do you think? – Piratas Mexico

Your biases are your own my friend, if you think you have them, you probably do. That said, No, I don’t think there’s much there. He’s a terrific fielder, but that’s about it. Has some pop, but he’s just not consistent with it and against left handed pitching, it’s just not worth exploring anymore.

He’s never really hit for power meaningfully at any level, and without overtly slapping a kid in the face, I’ll simply say, I don’t see it.

I probably jumped on this train too early, I called his acquisition as a nothing burger, or the non-important part of the Hill/Choi deal from the jump, and at the very least, Rivas has done nothing to change my mind.

I think he’ll be removed from the 40-man at the end of the season with very little fan fare.

Question 4

I think the Pirates spent $30.4 million last year on FAs to add to the team. I expect this year that number will be higher since their stated goal is to make the playoffs, but what do you think it will be (ballpark ofc) and what do you think it needs to be to achieve their goal? – Pitt_Panther_

And you could probably add in even more with Joe, and Choi deals. The Pirates payroll probably doesn’t need to go up much to improve, but I think their shopping list is rather expensive. As I’ve said often enough to mumble to myself while grabbing a beer out of the fridge, they need a first baseman and 2 starters minimally. They can get that filled fairly well for 35-40 million and I think they’ll do that.

Probably should assume a Keller extension will come, maybe into the season a bit like most of their other extensions have been. But that won’t raise the payroll in 2024 much I’d imagine.

I see no reason anywhere from 35-50 wouldn’t be budgeted in. Doesn’t mean I’d bet on it but I see no reason why that isn’t doable.

I will say, if they were to trade for a starter, good chance that comes back with payroll, but wouldn’t go into the FA pool costs, so I hesitate to say “spend XX amount or you don’t care!!” but that certainly won’t stop others from doing the same.

Question 5

Do you think Bailey Falter is on the active roster come next season? – Zach Williams

Zach, I can’t even tell you he’ll be on the 40-man. Bailey has no MiLB options remaining, so either he makes the team or he gets DFA’d. Maybe he clears and sticks for depth, maybe he makes the bullpen mix, but bottom line, if he doesn’t look like one of their best 13 pitchers, he likely is waived. And, he’ll be in this territory all year long.

Now, if Bailey Falter makes the team in the rotation out of Spring, they’ve either suffered a ton of injuries, or they didn’t go get help in the first place.

I do like some things I’ve seen from Falter, but you can’t enter a season in which you aimed for a playoff berth with what has essentially been a AAAA pitcher in your rotation.

Question 6

With all the middle infield prospects the Pirates have up or waiting in the wings do you any outfielders with some potential in the next couple of years to make the jump. – Mr. Derf

I feel right now they have Reynolds, Bae, Suwinski, Henry, Joe, Palacios and I suppose Andujar all capable of MLB level production. Beyond that, Canaan Smith-Njigba had a legitimately good season in AAA, but that’s a lot to jump.

Being completely real, that’s where I am, I need someone to look markedly better than 4 of those 7 I mentioned, specifically with the bat.

You want some flyers? Matt Gorski, Joe Perez, both probably have a shot. Beyond that, you probably go to the Lonnie White Jr. or Shalin Polanco level.

Question 7

Will GMBC spend more or less than $25M on pitching in off season ? – Douglas Smith

I’m sure you mean new money, cause if not the answer is of course.

They need 2 true starters, and it’s hard for me to see that without 25-30 million. Right now Doug, I’d say yes, because it’s what they should do. That in no way is predictive.

Question 8

How important is it to get Keller to his goal of 200 innings pitched this season? – James Littleton

If there were questions about his health, not at all. If there aren’t questions about his health, it means quite a bit to the player himself.

Say what you want about Mitch, but he is keenly aware of what makes greatness in this sport. Take a quick look at the record books for most 200IP+ seasons in baseball history and it’s a who’s who. The first 5 are Don Sutton (20), Phil Niekro (19), Greg Maddux (18), Walter Johnson (18) and Gaylord Perry (17). Keller set his sights on MLB royalty production this year, and given health and opportunity, a team should never stand in the way of a player who has those types of things in reach.

Again, you can’t risk his health to do it, but if it’s there, hell, let him try. He’s already borderline laid down the best Pirates starting pitching effort in a decade.

Does is matter? Well, if I were heading into arbitration and a likely extension conversation I think I’d want that nice round number to hang on my wall.

Question 9

Can Suwinski play 1st base? Chances of shifting Cruz to the outfield? Or am I just nuts in thinking both would be better at those positions? – Bernard Resnik

Maybe Jack can, maybe he can’t, but I don’t get the impression the Pirates would even entertain this. Despite the running narrative, the team is very happy with his performance in the outfield.

As for Cruz, well, here’s what I wrote Monday on this…

“Oneil Cruz will play SS agian, At least this will be the plan. They won’t go into this blind, he’ll either wind up playing Winter Ball, or at the very least, the club will closely monitor his continued rehab.

In other words, the concern about his ability to bounce back from this injury is well founded but two things happened during his recovery. 1, nobody stepped up and took short stop while he was gone, and 2, moving him around would be no more pleasant than what we’re trying to solve.”

Bottom line, fans want to move Oneil Cruz, the team, not so much. In fact, I’m not even sure what problem you’re trying to solve at this point.

When trying to win, it tends to be a poor idea to create issues where they don’t exist or to create an issue trying to solve another.