Five Pirates Thoughts at Five –

10-16-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s that time again, and I’m still not struggling to think of things to talk about. Maybe by January I’ll be running dry.

1. Who Bats Leadoff in 2024?

I don’t think the answer is all that mysterious, the Pirates will likely use Oneil Cruz. That’s not my preference bluntly, but when he’s been available, he’s been Derek Shelton’s primary choice.

I personally believe a 2-4 of Reynolds, Hayes and Cruz makes a lot of sense but if not Cruz, who? That’s part of the story too, maybe Cruz isn’t perfect for leadoff, but he might be the best option the Pirates have.

To fans, the choice usually has much to do with speed, which Cruz certainly has, but more than anything you want an on base percentage guy up there and ideally someone who will play the majority of games.

Here are the best options as I see them based on the mix of guys we know are on the table.
Ji-hwan Bae – Has the speed, but hasn’t shown the OBP you need there and isn’t a guarantee to make the team, let alone play most games.

Andrew McCutchen – if you task him with it, Cutch will get on base at a .350 clip. The speed has escaped him to a degree and I don’t see him playing the majority of games in 2024. Might also be better used lower in the lineup to produce runs.

Ke’Bryan Hayes – He’s been Shelton’s favorite choice when Cruz was unavailable or they were facing a lefty starter, but as much improvement as Hayes showed in 2023, OBP wasn’t one of them, his walk rate crashed last year even as his Slug grew a whopping 100 points. Likely need him in the heart of the order.

Jared Triolo – The Pirates experimented with this, but feels to me like Jared needs to win a position before he wins a permanent position in the lineup.

Maybe Oneil Cruz is the best bet to start the season. The next player I see coming who could potentially take this spot and not let go is Termarr Johnson, but it’s too early to have him enter this discussion.

2. The Playoffs Even the Playing Field

Major League Baseball changed the playoff format last year, but that’s not what has caused the changes we’ve seen. I think that’s more about the timing and length of the series.

It used to take a good staff to win in the playoffs, now it requires an elite bullpen and 2 or 3 good starters.

100 win teams have a full rotation of starters, but in the playoffs, it’s really more about riding the top of your rotation and that bullpen. In other words, it doesn’t matter that your 4th and 5th starters aren’t good, so long as your top 2 or 3 are elite, or at least performing like they are.

Listen, I’m not saying you shouldn’t try like hell to have a 5 deep rotation, after all with injury and performance ups and downs you’ll need them, but if you get into the dance and you have those 2 or 3, hey, the turkey might just be on the table.

3. Arbitration Estimates are in…

Lets talk our way through each one, their likelihood to be tendered and potentially the path forward for all of them.

• Mitch Keller: $6 million – Obvious tender here, this team can’t live without him, certainly can’t attain the GM’s stated goal in 24 if he isn’t here. He’s entering Arb 2, meaning unless the Pirates and Mitch act, 2025 will be his last in black and gold. In fact if they can’t get a contract done, 2024 might be his last. It’s for this reason I think you’ll see this never go to arbitration, the Pirates must make a go of extending Mitch Keller, they simply haven’t developed enough alternatives to pretend it’s ok to move him.
• David Bednar: $4.7 million – Of course they’ll tender him. David is entering Arb 1, so he has 2 more following this. 4.7 million isn’t a scary number for what Bednar brings, but if he replicates his 2023 you can expect this number to jump up over 7 for 2025. I am not a fan of extending closers and entering his age 30 season I’m inclined to just ride out arb and allow Mlodzinski or Holderman to claim the duty. That said, there is a path here, extend him for a couple years beyond his arb years and front load it so it compensates for his potentially declining stats. In other words, extend David Bednar the reliever, even as you use him as a closer. For me, this would have to be a hometown discount. I just don’t believe markets like this should make big deals for closers. And yes, it hurts me to say because he’s a local product, I’m just trying to be as emotionless as possible here because emotions and sports management don’t make good bedfellows.
• JT Brubaker: $2.28 million – This is our first real interesting case. JT had UCL (Tommy John) surgery at the beginning of 2023. The timeline for recovery is usually 12-18 months, and that probably means he won’t meaningfully pitch for the Pirates in 2024. Maybe toward the end of the season, but even then, I’m not sure as a starter. That said, he has 2 years of arb left and is relatively proven as a capable innings eater. Not sure what the Pirates will do here, but I’d tender him, offer 2 and hope you get a fully recovered JT by the end of the year. The Pirates might feel the window for needing the type of service he provides will expire after 2024, but to me you don’t toss an arm out that could potentially be a solid starter making 4 mil or so in 2025.
• Miguel Andujar: $2.2 million – Andujar is entering Arb 3 his last year of team control. He had a tremendous season in the minors and didn’t embarrass himself in his late season call up either. 2.2 is nothing, if he even got that much, but the real issue with Miguel is where do you play him? He’s really a DH who can play corner outfield in a pinch, but I’m not sure he’s on my depth chart for either. We could see them do something similar to what they did last year. Sign him and see if he clears waivers when DFA’d because he costs too much to pick up as a flyer, but his 2023 might make that unrealistic, it was legitimately promising. If I had to guess, the Pirates let him walk. Best case he’s a helpful bat in 2024, but I’m not sure I saw a sense of urgency on the Pirates part to showcase him or understand what they had after he was recalled. Strongly leaning toward letting him go. And no, he isn’t a 1B, won’t be a 1B, and if you saw it for 2 weeks, you also would say, he’s not a 1B.
• Connor Joe: $2 million – I know he’s a popular choice to non-tender, but bluntly, he isn’t by the team. He’s entering Arb for the first time and there is little doubt the Pirates will tender him. He plays a position of need well enough to keep and put together a pretty good season for a bench player, which is exactly what he’d be on a good team. I’m actually of the belief 2 million might be a little light here, could get 2.25 or so.
• Ryan Borucki: $1.3 million – This is Ryan’s last year of arbitration and he proved himself to be a valuable lefty that Derek Shelton felt he could use just about anywhere he wanted. If he’s your wipeout lefty in 2024, I’m not satisfied, but if he’s part of the pen, I think that’s a good thing. Can’t see them non-tendering him for 1.3, that’s a mere bump over the waiver wire claim he was when he got here. Even if he reverts, it’s a very small risk.

Pretty small class actually. Think about how this will look in 2026, lord knows the Pirates are.

The way baseball is structured, you have to make these decisions, specifically to tender or non-tender before you’ve signed one free agent, so you better have a plan. It’s one thing to say let’s move on from Joe, for example, we can do better, it’s another thing to drop him, leave a hole and then can becomes have to. Not a position GM’s like being in and this team already has a few have to’s.

4. First Base

Look, the conversation surrounding first base has become insane. Let’s get some truths out of the way.

First, not everyone is capable of playing first base. It’s hard to believe I have to say this in a town where we haven’t had a solid internally developed player since Kevin Young. This is a defensive position that is admittedly often used as a second DH spot in this league, but for even that, you kinda have to be able to field ground balls, scoop throws, make accurate short arm throws and we often treat it like a dump for misfit players.

Second, experimentation is not something you do when you claim winning is the goal. That means this must be manned by someone who’s done it, or at least has proven they’re capable.

Henry Davis playing first base makes a ton of sense. They need a first baseman, he needs a position. Have you considered for one second that perhaps they’ve explored this in practice and he simply didn’t look capable of fielding there? I’m not saying that’s what happened here, but it makes too much sense to have simply not explored it.

I’d also add here, we have to stop with all this wasting an arm or he doesn’t hit for enough power crap. Is it a bat you want in the lineup? Can they handle it? Boom.

First basemen are rarely drafted, they’re moved. This team will eventually either move someone or they’ll sign someone. Now if they sit here with players such as Henry who have no position, should we assume they didn’t try it? Should we assume his arm is just so good the Pirates chose to let him rot instead of “waste” his arm?

All I’m saying is, can we at least not act like this situation is as simple as find hole insert player, it’s not and that goes for every name you might want to add.

5. Injury Updates

You aren’t likely to hear much on some of the players you’re worried about. Andrew McCutchen for instance isn’t even technically a team employee at the moment. You’re more likely to hear from him than the team.

JT Brubaker, well there isn’t going to be much until well into next season.

Point is if you’re waiting for info on this stuff, it simply isn’t coming anytime soon.

Every week I do the Q&A I get 2 or 3 of these queries and I figured I’d address it here a bit.