Jack Suwinski Might be Farther Along Than We Think

11-1-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Something that happens when a team makes a major move toward youth quite often is a feeling of dread that, holy hell, if this is “all the talent” we’ve acquired, we’re screwed. The thought here being they aren’t that good, and it’s hard to see them getting better.

You have some people like me out here telling you about short sample sizes and the dangers of placing too much value in them. Some “expert” talent evaluators out there dismiss that type of thing immediately, they only need 15-20 at bats to fully diagnose how a player is trending. AKA, What they are.

Just in this World Series we’ve watched players like Adolis Garcia who’s been DFA’d twice and finally caught on with Texas in 2021 at 28 years old. Total star right? Late bloomer, of course. Look at his stats.

Adolis Garcia

	PA	2B	HR	BA	OPS	BB	K
2021	622	26	31	.243	.741	32	194
2022	657	34	27	.250	.756	40	183
2023	632	29	39	.245	.836	65	175

First thing you notice?

Homeruns of course, but look at those K’s. What would you be saying? Pretty consistent right? Probably strikes out a bit too much, doesn’t really look like that’s going away either. Big uptick this year was almost entirely from a dramatic decrease in his swing and miss rate on pitches outside the zone.

Just for craps and giggles, let’s see something.

	PA	2B	HR	BA	OPS	BB	K
2022	372	11	19	.202	.709	41	114
2023	534	21	26	.224	.793	75	172

That my friends is 25 year old Jack Suwinski.

Where these two go from here is really not the point, as much as to say numbers like this trending in the right direction at 25 years old, should probably fill us with a bit more optimism than the stalled project who disappointed us in 2023 feeling I seem to read and hear proportionally speaking.

I’m not saying these are the same players, not by any stretch, I’m simply saying at 30 years old, Garcia could probably do this for another 2-3 years before starting to decline, at 25, Jack should be on the upswing for a minute yet.

I can tell you internally, that’s how Jack is seen. Not that they know what his top of the mountain looks like quite yet, but believe me, they’re going to give him every opportunity to keep climbing, and more importantly, they EXPECT him to.

I guess what I’m saying here is, back in 2021 while the Rangers were losing 102 games and Adolis Garcia, a waiver claim 28 year old, twice DFA’d, never was, is in the process of belting 31 dingers and striking out almost 200 times, what were their fans thinking? Think they assumed he’d play like a World Series MVP in 2 years? Flash in the pan?

I don’t know, I’m not there, but I can tell you Jack Suwinski probably is on a better trajectory than most of us have given him credit for. Maybe we should also look differently at a guy like Joshua Palacios.

Most of us, and by us in this instance I’m referring to we who write, talk, analyze this team almost accepted Joshua Palacios as an ok option for 2023 but we plugged our nose to do it.

None of us loved the idea of a minor league rule 5 selection who was 28 years old coming up here and carving a meaningful role, and even once we accepted that he was probably the best option in 2023, next to none of us wanted to give him a spot next year.

It just doesn’t work out often. You’ve probably caught the same “tude” about Miguel Andujar. Difference being he has had more of an MLB shot than the others we’re comparing, and his rookie success to this day remains alluring.

Nick Gonzales is a guy who I think has been almost kicked off the team by some fans already. 128 plate appearances in MLB. Played legit good defense at a couple positions, wasn’t impressive at the plate, for sure looked overmatched in more than a few at bats.

But…

It’s not like there are no signs of life. It’s also not like he’s blocked by Ryne Sandberg here people.

As much as probability plays into baseball, you still have to play the games, and as this team tries to put together a winning roster, maybe we all need to take a step back and realize that perhaps a little humility is needed to see that we all miss “special” coming from time to time, regardless of how closely we watch it.

Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Roansy Contreras, Liover Peguero, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Oneil Cruz, all of these are examples of players who could take that big jump, and when one does it’ll feel like it came out of nowhere. Some of course won’t progress, that’s the far more often outcome for sure, but regardless of what this team adds in the offseason, really turning this thing around is going to come from this group of players who’ve already gotten a taste.