11-4-23 – By Justin Verno, Joe Boyd & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT, @Joe_Boyd11 and @CoreyShrader on Twitter
Justin Verno- Before we get going here I’d like to take a second to welcome back my original partner in crime, my OG, Joey Boyd. That’s right everyone! Three is the magic number!
Joey Boyd- Wow, thanks so much for having me back! It’s been too long.. Let’s see if I still know what I’m doing!
Corey Shrader- Welcome back, Joe! I am very excited to see the additional dimension of having your voice back on these pieces. Not only because I am looking forward to hearing your thoughts on these scenarios, but now our readers will also get some additional perspective to consider. Exciting stuff!
JV- Fellas, we’ve been waiting for this, haven’t we? To turn the tables? To flip the script? To run the reverse? To see the toilet swirl counterclockwise? To switch gears? The sellers become the buyers, at long last!
JB – Jud, before we get to that, let’s do a few of our classic trades. We have a few guys to chat about before we pivot to adding pieces! Let’s start with David Bednar. If we break down the value for Bednar based on his ZiPS projections and my salary arb projections, we’re looking at a value of $10.13M, but those are some very conservative ZiPS projections of 0.8 WAR in 2024 and 2025. If I take just an average of the last three years from David, that balloons his value to $21.47M. Let’s use those values as the guardrails as we move forward trying to find a trade package for Bednar.
JV- I know fans likely want to go right to the dessert, but there’s still some meat and potatoes on the plate here. And guys, I know people are going to claim this is just a click bait piece, but like it or not we will see David Bednar’s name come up at the Winter Meetings. His name popped up at the Trade Deadline, but when the smoke cleared The Renegade still called PNC Park his home.
Does a $4.7 million price tag change the situation? Let’s quash that crap right here and right now. If Nutting gives General Manager Ben Cherington a thumbs up on moving Bednar, it WILL NOT be due to a $4.7 million dollar pay stub. Is Nutting cheap? Absolutely. But $4.7M just isn’t going to scare him.
I don’t see GMBC moving Bednar all things considered, but is it possible that the Buccos get an offer they can’t refuse?
CS – As we have done with every Bednar related piece, we must mention that moving the beloved, big, Yinzer is very unlikely. But we must consider the possibility given that he is a good trade piece. We are not endorsing this type of move. Our aim is to try to make sense of his value on the trade market and then to reason out the who, what, why, etc…
My own personal take on a Bednar move is that it is doable. It would be possible to be “buyers” and trade Bednar. The fine details would require a masterclass from the front office. Such a trade would place a premium on the return being one of two things: undeniable prospect talent, regardless of age/level or MLB ready, young-ish talent.
JV- I, too, am of the opinion that this is a deal that could be doable. But “doable’” and getting it done, well that’s a different story altogether.
Ok guys, I think we’ve stalled enough. Joe, I know it has been a while but this is like riding a bike. Sometimes you just gotta get back on the seat and start pedaling. Cause you’re up first my, dude!
JB – Team: Atlanta Braves
SP AJ Smith-Shawver OR Hurston Waldrep – 50 FV – $21M – 2024
3B Ignacio Alvarez – 40+ FV – $4M – 2025
My deal is with Atlanta, a team knocking on the door and ready to make a splash. The thing that I needed in a deal for Bednar was a headliner that was ready to contribute in 2024, and Atlanta had options. I’ve got a bit of a cop out with the headliner as the Braves have two guys that meet the criteria for this deal. I’d push for Smith-Shawver as he fits the profile that I prefer, from Longenhagen, as a “a big frame (6-foot-3, 205 pounds), present arm strength, and a loose, efficient arm action that portended secondary pitch development. Things have gone swimmingly so far, as Smith-Shawver has already begun to throw harder (he’s now parked at 93-96 mph for whole outings and reaching back for more when he wants), and his slider has morphed from a crude, velo-dependent weapon into a nasty, more polished two-plane pitch that he is commanding with exciting consistency early in 2023.” But if you prefer a player that “does most of his damage with his upper-80s screwball-style changeup. It’s a devastating, airbender-esque pitch” then Waldrep is your guy.
Alvarez adds a piece that allows Pittsburgh to replenish the coffers for the future, as well. Back to Longenhagen, “He’s a Yandy Díaz starter kit: Of such muscular build that he is at risk of sliding to third base if he continues to thicken, he has great feel for the strike zone and promising bat-to-ball skills, but his swing is not at all optimized for power and will likely dilute his in-game production if it doesn’t change.”
CS- Team: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phils have now had two consecutive seasons where they “peaked” with almost perfect timing. Absolute masterclass is player preparation and coaching, in my opinion. In the sports performance world “peaking” the majority of a team at the appropriate time is incredibly difficult. I cannot stress enough how impressive what Philly has done for two seasons back to back has been to watch.
With that being said, they could still use a lockdown back of the bullpen arm. One of the all-time great closers, Craig Kimbrel, is headed for free agency and the team seems reluctant to let Jose Alvarado move into the closer role full time. Alvarado was dominant in 2023 and did close out 10 games when called upon. It is a possibility that they make the decision to hand the reins to Alvarado & simply trust the arm talent. Late season call up Orion Kerkering is also a name to watch as ready-made late game arms too. I could see the Phils go “by committee” and use a RHP/LHP split with these two.
For the purposes of this piece, let’s say that Philadelphia trains their sights on The Renegade and try to game out what that might look like.
The Deal –
Phillies Get: David Bednar, CL
Pirates Get: Griff McGarry P – $4 – 45 FV – 2024
Aidan Miller SS – $6 – 45 FV – 2027
This marks the second straight season where I try to manifest the Pirates acquiring Griff McGarry. Looking at his 2023 performance, you the reader might think that I am some combination of moron, fool, or clown. Perhaps all three. McGarry was good at AA, but pretty gross at AAA. However – he has absolutely nuclear level stuff. If McGarry could improve the control and harness the arsenal it is a top of the rotation profile. Even if he does not make those kinds of improvements on his control, he has the type of ability to be a lights out back end of the bullpen option. McGarry is the type of talent that I am almost always in favor of bringing in.
The second piece is the big SS/3B, Aidan Miller. Miller was a 2023 1st round selection who boasts big time raw power & a developing hit tool. The hit tool could always be a lagging part of the player profile, but the power, bat speed, & hands are all there in spades. Miller would be a desirable piece for any organization to get their hands on.
Philadelphia might balk at the price of adding Miller, but I really do not have a feel for where they are on McGarry. His range of outcomes is wide and the odds of him being a “miss” due to command issues are quite high. Should he be a “hit” though, it would have potential to be a BIG “hit.”
I am sort of breaking my own rule with this proposal, I know. At the beginning it was mentioned that this deal would need to see “win-now” returns and what I have presented is a lot more theoretical than immediate. My retort to this would be that I am a believer in McGarry’s pure stuff & the profile of Miller to eventually be a difference maker to pull the trigger on something like this.
JV- Putting together a Bednar deal is not an easy task in the offseason. There are so many GM’s that think they can buy a ring. Due to that, there will certainly be teams connected to a David Bednar that we don’t think need him. It’s part of the fun of the Winter Meetings.
Not sure the team that I’m using here qualifies for that, but I doubt that people would consider that the World Series Champions would be in the market for a closer. And why not? They will be losing some of their BP arms and they have a young deep roster that should be a problem for the AL contenders for years to come. My team, the Texas Rangers.
The Deal-
Rangers get-
David Bednar ($41.75M)
Nick Gonzales-MLB/AAA 2B/SS/3B SV?
Nick still has the quick hands, but it’s starting to look like he’s the odd man out for the Buccos. His SV is hard to gauge and likely higher than we think due to the control that comes attached to him, and it gives the Rangers a back up plan at 2B.
Pirates get-
Justin Foscue-2B/3B/1B-ETA:2024-FV 50($28M)
The Rangers have to make room on the 40 man roster for Justin by November 14th, the cut off to be protected from the Rule5 draft. The thing with Foscue is the Rangers have 2B and 1B covered with Nathan Lowe and Marcus Simien. They also have Ezequile Duran, so moving Foscue here could make sense.
He’s gotten bigger so 1B looks to be the spot, but his ability to play 2B could also be attractive should Peggy struggle. What does Justin bring?
Per Fangraphs,
“He has a 94% in zone contact rate”
The kid can hit.
Dustin Harris-OF/1B- ETA:2024- FV 40+($4M)
Harris is another position flexible guy that could fit what the Bucs need, maybe more so due to being an OF as well as a 1B. Like Foscue, he’s 24 so the time is now for a push to the majors. However, unlike Foscue, he’s currently on the Rangers 40 man. His power plays, though the exit velos were down in 23, something that could scare the Bucs FO off.
Owen White-SP-MLB- FV 45($4M)
Owen is still just 24 and already debuted. There’s a ‘but’ here though. BUT, he’s coming off a subpar season. His velo is down. His debut wasn’t good and his AAA numbers weren’t all that encouraging.
So why’d I include him? You keep adding pitching until the pitching pans out. TINSTAAPP goes both ways.
If you’re returning to these pages, you might recall that I’ve used all three of these names before. So sue me. If GMBC is to move Bednar the package would need to address holes for the 2024 season. This package gives the Bucs two options to split time at 1B with Endy Rodriguez and keep either bat in the lineup while Henry Davis slides behind the plate. It adds an interesting arm to the system that could use a change of scenery.
Conclusion:
JB – If GMBC can get value near Jud’s package, it’s hard to say no. I believe that Bednar is more valuable to Pittsburgh than he is as a trade piece, at least at this stage. I truly believe that the Pirates MUST turn the corner in the next 2 years and I’m not sure the pieces Bednar brings back are more valuable than having the Yinzer handling high leverage situations in a potential push for playoffs. That means that a deal has to be so clearly a win from the Pirates perspective for them to consider moving Bednar. I think we can rest easy that he won’t move.
JV- Even my package has its flaws. Owen White, while worth a gamble, took a step back and the velo drop is a red flag. Dustin Harris did lose some exit velo on average and that’s not what I’d call ideal. I can see the Bucs not loving the return despite filling gaps on the roster.
I think the common threads in all 3 deals are MLB ready prospects and that fill the gaps in the lineup while still landing that perceived surplus. Easy enough for us to have fun with, but in the real world? It’s not gonna be that easy.
CS – As Joe noted very eloquently above; Bednar simply has greater value in Pittsburgh than in almost any other organization. While it is not something that can be measured in a tangible sense, I fully believe it to be true. Both Jud & Joe’s proposals encapsulate this well. The trade that I set forth is slightly more based on a transaction without anything beyond performance value added in.
JV- As Corey said at the beginning, by writing these we aren’t advocating to trade Bednar. We’re just taking a look at the kind of return that could get the job done.
This is well worth keeping in mind for the next installment when we take a peek at the viability of moving Mithc Keller. Not too long ago Joe took a shot at putting together what an extension for Bryan Reynolds could look like in one of these traded pieces. Perhaps we can kick off next week’s piece on moving Keller with Joe taking a look at that? I really think that would be best for the team, but until the Bucs get an extension done, we will hear his name pop up at the Winter Meetings.
Steel City Pirates 