11-6-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
Here we go, into the wild.
For the first time in quite a few seasons, the Pirates have a good base of young talent in place, more on the way, money to spend and a stated goal of winning in the next season. We have our own hurt feelings, letdowns, mistrust of the regime. We have the history of not doing enough, or choosing poorly when reaching.
That said, we don’t know how this regime will approach what is regardless of your opinion as to how they’ll handle it, a crucial offseason for this franchise.
We haven’t had this experience much, if ever, bluntly, I can’t really remember thinking particularly hard about how much I thought they’d add in 2013. Kinda just felt like we’d just grow with the players they developed, but they added.
There are too many quality pitchers on the market for the Pirates to pretend they couldn’t get one, even reasonably priced.
Unlike previous off-seasons where we knew subtraction was the focus, we know additions are on the way here this time.
1. Secure the Homefront First
Before the Pirates start adding players or wheeling and dealing, I’d really like to see them focus on and finish an extension with Mitch Keller. The Pirates own his rights for 2 more seasons through arbitration, and this year he’ll likely make 6.5 million on Arb 2. No matter who the Pirates bring in and add to the rotation, solid chance Mitch Keller is still the staff ace heading into 2024. Just as solid a chance whomever they bring in via free agency makes more than 6.5 million per too.
Now, if I’m a GM, I know technically Mitch knows this, and I also know there’s no reason to rub his face in it. Locking up a guy like Keller for even just a few more years will also send a signal to the league if you sign here for 2-3 seasons you aren’t getting flipped next year.
Extensions for Hayes and Reynolds have already started showing the league this team is thinking farther ahead than next year’s budget, but free agents that matter, they want to see a core, and they want to trust that core will be together for most of the time they could be.
At the end of the day, guys want to win, and they want to see a team secure proven winners when they develop them.
Mitch is a huge organizational win and testament to perseverance on the player and development staff’s parts. To let him walk after 2025 would be like paying your car off then totaling it on the way to the grocery store. You will have experienced 4 years of pain for 2 years of pleasure, which if you think about it sounds a lot like the rebuild theory we’ve just watched. Signing players like Mitch prevents that 2 years from being written in stone, it could be much longer.
2. So Who Else is in Danger?
The Pirates just cleared a bunch of room so they could add back in the 60-day IL players they had on the roster.
Next they’ll have to make room for the Rule 5 protections, and further still free agent acquisitions.
So we all saw the list that already got shipped/waived/outrighted/traded/non-tendered/option declined…whew, let’s look at who else should probably have a bag packed.
Add all this up and you’ll see right now it’s at 37 of 40. Add back in those 60-man guys it tightens back up, then, well, you get the point. The precise number isn’t as important as showing the types of guys left on this roster you might consider “fodder”, or “maybe we can sneak them through” types.
For instance, Nick Gonzales is not in either of those spots, even while his 26 man inclusion isn’t written in stone.
Hunter Stratton – at 27 years old, he was already a late bloomer but his performance in AAA made his rule 5 protection decision enough of a lock the Pirates went ahead and did it last year. Having guys with options matters for bullpens, might be his best attribute we can measure.
Colin Selby – We saw a decent amount of Colin. What there was to like in spurts. What there was to never want to see again in spurts too. Up and down through out the season with mixed results. The arm is big enough to want to keep just for another crack at developing it.
Osvaldo Bido – Valuable innings provided in 2023 have probably not gone unnoticed. With options, he’s easy to stash in AAA and call up for a fill in or bullpen need.
Kyle Nicolas – Really some plus pitches, very limited opportunity in MLB. Another example of a guy who showed a Rule 5 decision needed made and it was. Likely to remain on the roster in AAA but there is something there.
Alika Williams – Arguably the best SS glove in the system. Arguably not enough to make him indispensable. The defense is top notch not doubt, but the bat just didn’t look MLB level in his expanded look last year. His defense is a luxury, I suppose if you can keep it without pain, do so, but he can’t be enough to prevent a FA signing can he?
Thomas Hatch – Waiver claim who performed well. Nothing to say here but he’s the type of guy who has been through this process enough to already have his kid’s school transcripts pulled. I wouldn’t be surprised either way, but if he doesn’t make the 26-man, he will have to be DFA’d.
Bailey Falter – I thought Bailey did admirably in his time with the Buccos after the Rodolfo Castro deal, really. I also think he has no options, and a team claiming they are WINNING can’t go into April with Bailey Falter in their rotation. I don’t see a bullpen role for him either. This leads me to the belief they’d likely be forced to move on at some point anyway, so might as well sneak him through when everyone is distracted?
Canaan Smith-Njigba – I don’t think he’s been given a fair shake really, I also don’t see anyone pushing him off the much needed depth coffers either, but if they add in the outfield from the outside, you could see CSN being a casualty.
That’s it. That’s the list of players barring trades that I see as ok to at least consider trying to pass through waivers. Which again for most of these guys would mean simply going back to AAA. Some would have the choice to claim free agency too if they cleared so waiving them is essentially cutting them.
If I have a shocker to add it might be Roansy Contreras. I’m not trying to be alarmist, but he too has no options, and if he doesn’t have the fastball, as much as it would hurt, I’m not sure how you keep him.
I’m not officially putting him on this list since I’m just dreaming up worst case scenario stuff here, but if they can’t help him, well, you know. NEEDING to make the 26-man puts him in dangerous territory.
In no way am I saying everyone not mentioned here is cool as a cucumber about their spot, I’m just saying they will have to make room to potentially protect others, add free agents and generally flesh this thing out. Trades could also change the dynamic of this list, but based on what we know right this second, this is where I’d leave it when talking about who could be moved on from in order to create space.
3. Shakeup in the Central
So that happened.
That’s right, now we’ll see Craig Counsell coaching against the Pirates as a division rival, but in Chicago as opposed to Milwaukee.
My god, can you imagine back in the day Leyland going to Philly or New York? This has to be a gut punch for Brewers fans, more than that, it’s a smart manager jumping off one ship before it’s started taking on water in exchange for a bigger, better frame with more resources that still needs some work.
Make no mistake, the Cubs believe they’ve just made a decision that will one day get them back to the promised land, any thoughts they’d take the foot off the gas this off season are out the window.
Milwaukee has already been dealing with blow after blow. First losing Woodruff well into if not all of next year, his last year of team control. Corbin Burnes entering his last year of control and already disgruntled from last year’s arb trial. Willy Adames with only 2 years left, and a lot of youth on the way. This might be a perfect excuse to hit the plunger a bit. I could argue they’d be wise to do so because it stands to be a quick dip with where their farm is, but politically in Wisconsin, it wouldn’t be well received as they’ve already been rumbling with the city.
For Chicago, I don’t know how to put this aside from to say, it feels like an adult hire whereas David Ross the former player felt like it got a bit too loose at times. If we know anything it’s that Counsell will run a tight ship and he’ll get the most out of the talent he’s provided. Feels like it’s been Cubs tradition to have a bunch of talent and underachieve, that’s something very likely to change.
It’s not often we see a baseball manager willingly become a free agent, so I’d have to say Mr. Counsell at the very least bet on himself.
Probably a good bet.
4. Make Starting Pitching Star Again
Rob Manfred during the World Series talked about the role of starting pitching in the game, and how it’s changed over the years and in many ways become devalued. Specifically pointing to teams pitching bullpen games or TBA instead of a matchup of two starters.
It’s not ideal for the game but I’m also not sure how you combat it. This isn’t about guys being poor athletes, it’s about analytics.
Blake Snell for instance, one of the best around this year has in innings 1-6 an exemplary 2.29 ERA, he pitched beyond the 6th 3 times this year.
How about a good pitcher like Corbin Burnes, 1-6 he posted 3.57. He only passed the 6th 9 times all season.
Baseball’s analytics have definitively proven that when a hitter sees a pitcher 3 times, in that third time they are much more likely to do damage. It’s really that simple.
Sure, there are injury concerns and inning counts, and high velocities, and hunting strikeouts and spin rates. All that stuff is true too, but the fact remains that no matter what the league would choose to do to combat this, no matter what coaching staffs would do to work around the new rules, they’d always come back to the one truth none of them can un-know. If you let a pitcher see the third time through the order, it’s on you coach, and you better be right, cause the numbers say you’re dirt dumb.
All of this to say, I see the problem, I don’t like it either, but I’m not sure you can fix it.
5. Jared Triolo+ Subscription?
Hey why not, the streaming industry can just add + to the end and get more money out of you right?
There is a lot of chatter within the Pirates system that Jared Triolo has found a previously undiscovered penchant for power. The Pirates last year before sending him back to AAA Indianapolis made some small adjustments to his stance they hoped would help him put a bit more sting into balls without sacrificing everything else he was already doing well.
They also hoped there was a bit of recovery going on with his hamate bone procedure which historically robs hitters of power until fully healed which can take a full season for some guys.
What he did after his recall was encouraging but too small a sample size to determine much of anything aside form maybe a slight uptick in exit velocity which even that could be nothing more than glitches in the matrix.
Point is, in general the team seems excited about what this kid most of us have already put a fairly low ceiling on could become. So if nothing else, don’t act like it’s out of nowhere if indeed he does look like Jared Triolo+ in 2024. Sure would be nice if a couple years down the line a few NL Central teams looked at him like their Kolten Wong.
Steel City Pirates 