The Pirates Ten Most Likely 2024 Rookie Debuts

11-10-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

There are always rookie debuts, but in recent seasons the Pirates have had more than their fair share.

In 2021 the Pirates debuted 8, 3 of which remain in the organization as we speak Oneil Cruz, Roansy Contreras and Max Kranick.

In 2022 the number jumped to 14. 7 of those remain in the organization Cam Aldred, Ji Hwan Bae, Jason Delay, Luis Ortiz, Liover Peguero, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski.

And last year another batch of 14. 12 of them remain with the organization. Naming them would be a waste of time, Drew Maggi and Cody Bolton are the 2 who didn’t.

Onboarding kids matters more when the kids are supposed to be something. See in 2021, the Pirates debuted 8 rookies, but the quality level just wasn’t there and eventually we’ve seen that planted garden weeded. 2022, again a lesser class expectation wise, half remain, and you can almost look at the list and see it getting weeded further right? Maybe even another one or two from 2021 too.

The 2023 crop, well, it was a lot of the bigger name prospects. The guys with pedigree, the guys with expectation, and still, that lofty 12 of 14 won’t stick long, probably won’t even last into the 2024 campaign.

So as we enter 2024, we should take a few things in before we start guessing at this. First, the roster is more full than it has been with legitimate MLB talent. The team is more prepared to spend then they’ve been in recent years, so even where there are weak spots to break through, chances are the team is either not sitting on an obvious prospect and/or they’ll fill it. The way the Pirates build this year, I’d bet they’ll start the season with 5-6 players it’s a fairly common belief are MLB players in AAA.

I’ll list 10, but honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them fail to reach the number. This doesn’t feel like a year where we’ll see a ton of additional untested youth brought up.

10 will be the least likely, and 1 will be the most likely.

10. Mike Burrows (SP/AAA/IL)

He was supposed to make it last year, but Tommy John stunted his ascension. This year he’ll rehab from the jump and come August or September, who knows, if he does debut it won’t likely be for an extended look.

9. Termarr Johnson (2B/AA)

This is a stretch, and Termarr would have to first control himself and continue to move up. He’d then need some help from the 2B candidates in front of him, meaning, he’d need some injuries or anemic performance to get a crack. To rush him this year no matter what has to be because of something extreme. Either his performance or a complete collapse in the structure above his head, maybe both. I almost made this 10.

8. Sean Sullivan (SP/AA)

Again, when you get to number 8 on a list for potential rookie debuts on a team that probably shouldn’t be looking for rookie help, you aren’t talking about terribly likely, but Sean really showed something last year and while he’s a starter who you’d think the team would want to culture a bit more, his arm is big enough to help in the pen pretty quickly. You can never have enough pitching.

7. Dariel Lopez (SS/2B/AA)

Before Dariel was injured he was on a trajectory that would have probably netted him MLB playing time last year. In fact, it’s plausible the Pirates don’t make the trade for Alika Williams if Dariel isn’t on the shelf. Certainly was on a path to the 40-man. Well, losing a year of development strikes again, this year the Pirates won’t even protect him from the Rule 5, that said those who really focus on prospects were largely in love with him in 2022, so I’d imagine that will return in 2024 and start at a higher level too. Still, a lot to jump.

6. Braxton Ashcraft (SP/AA)

I think Braxton is very likely to be protected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, and simply by being on the 40-man, his number will get called before many others on our list if indeed they do protect him. Big arm, again, could help in the pen first too.

5. Matt Gorski (OF/IF/DH)

Matt has been a popular name each of the past couple years talking about Rule 5 protections. He has some impressive power, very athletic, big kid, but he’s also got some indicators that he’s only going to get so far or at the very least have flattened his ceiling a bit. I have him up here because I’m starting to see him as a use it or lose it type, not unlike Bligh Madris. At some point you’ve “trained” all you can, let’s see if the big league uni shines his apple a bit.

4. Paul Skenes (SP)

It’s Paul’s expectation that he’ll be ready to start MLB games in 2024, that said, he probably felt he could have last year. I personally think his stuff would play in a bullpen, but he’s got some stuff to tighten up before making his debut. I am not in the camp that he has to make it in 2024 or it was a bust, but plenty of people will be I’m sure. I put him 4th because if he captures even 2/3 of what people think he could be the Pirates won’t be able to talk anyone including themselves into believing he couldn’t help them win something right here, right now.

3. Jared Jones (SP)

Arguably could have debuted last year, I think he’s a lock to debut during 2024. The stuff will play and he’s just about mastered a changeup that is sure to wind up on a Pitching Ninja post before too long. The fastball is big with life, aside from Skenes, it’s hard to say there is a more exciting debut to look for. I personally think he is in line before Skenes and his only obstacle aside from the team purposefully blocking the rotation with vets is that he doesn’t need protected from the Rule 5 this year, so adding him will likely be done upon his callup like many we’ve seen before him.

2. Jase Bowen (UTL)

Jase is in my eyes another who could be protected from the Rule 5. He’s got a diverse skill set and calling him up should he be protected would be an easy call for plugging any number of holes. If he isn’t protected, and isn’t selected, he honestly probably slots all the way back at the bottom of the list. Protecting him to me would be his easiest path to the league in 2024. If they don’t, I guess I’d say, he won’t.

1. J.C. Flowers (RP)

I expected J.C. to debut last year, but he didn’t have a great year. The Pirates sent him to the AFL, and he’s been ok. The arm is big, he has good stuff and it’s really hard for me to make a list like this and not include at least one reliever. After all, it’s the easiest thing in the world to debut and ship right back out.

The most obvious omission on my part is probably Malcom Nunez, I just don’t see the path. I think they’ll bring in a first baseman and then I think they have 2-3 internally they’d play there over him. He’s not going to get 3B reps, cause they have Triolo, Gonzales and honestly I bet Brannigan before getting to him on the depth chart. His best bet might be an injury, but even then if it’s like DH, they have easy choices to make for filling that who aren’t as untested.

I probably could have tossed Carter Bins or Abrahan Gutierrez in here, but it would specifically take a Jason Delay injury and I’d have to fully understand what the Pirates are doing with Henry Davis behind the plate, which I don’t. Tsung-Che Cheng is a guy I personally think could be in danger if they don’t protect him, but again, I just don’t see a path and I don’t see him as a guy who you would bring up here without a real logical path forward.

If you want a dark horse, it’s Anthony Solometo. He really moved last year, I just get the impression they’ll be careful with him and I see him probably getting pushed into a 2025 window.

In the J.C. Flowers slot, I could have probably put Tyler Samaniego, Nick Dombkowski, Cameron Junker types too, I just picked the one I like best there and I honestly don’t see them dipping into this pool much. Too many starters will need innings and find their way to the pen on top of already having a fairly fleshed out pen.