11-11-23 – By Justin Verno, Joe Boyd & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT, @Joe_Boyd11 and @CoreyShrader on Twitter
Justin Verno- Guys, we are one week closer to the MLB Winter Meetings. The 2023 MLB offseason is officially off and running! For us, though? We are stuck in neutral thanks to some rumors we heard at the trade deadline on Mitch Keller.
As we delve into the nitty gritty on any potential deal involving Keller, I think it’s vital we talk about a few key points.
1: I don’t think any of us think the Bucs will get serious in discussions on Keller. Why?
2: The Bucs should be looking to extend him.
3: A deal that would involve Keller would likely make little to no sense for a team looking to acquire him.
Joe Boyd – I agree, and I think I’d prefer to do an article looking at what an extension might look like, but this isn’t Three Guys Talkin’ About What an Extension Might Look Like, so let’s stay on brand. To Jud’s point, I’m not interested in trading Keller, rather I’m ready to build around the guy. But let’s see what we might be looking at from a value perspective.
Fangraphs provides a projection of 2.8 WAR in 2024, so if you throw my depreciation factor in for 2025, I have a projection of 2.4 WAR in the final year of arbitration. Spotrac projects an ARB value of $6.8M this year which helps out Pittsburgh, in my opinion. So when we take those projections and put them into the Surplus Value calculation, I’m getting $25.6M for Keller. That’s not a HUGE value, but it’ll bring back a significant package.
JV- If Ben Cherington is willing to sell Keller at that price, there’d be a line of GMs wrapped around the block like teenagers camping out to get Taylor Swift tickets.
He simply cannot move Keller at that value.
CS – I am right there with you guys. The idea of trading the team’s current best starting pitcher and ostensible ace is a difficult proposition to put forward, but, it is safe to say that Keller will be a name other teams would want to check in on. Making the proposal to move Bednar seems far-fetched in itself, but I could talk myself into that one. Trading a back end bullpen piece from a team that is not quite ready to compete makes some sense. They are luxury items for that type of team. Moving an established top of the rotation arm is another can of worms though. It is incredibly tricky.
JB – Team: Texas Rangers
I’m still in agreement w/ Jud on moving Keller and I struggle to find a player/package that would entice me to move him. Going back to the well w/ the current World Series Champions, Texas has a farm system that has some intriguing players. I’m not moving Keller for a lottery ticket, however, so I want players that’re ready to go. You could go with Foscue, but as Jud pointed out last week, he’s beefing up too much and looks like a 1B profile. I understand the short-term need in Pittsburgh, but that’s not the trade you make for your 200K Ace.
My deal would be:
Evan Carter – OF – MLB – 50 FV ($28M)
Carter debuted this year, and in 23 games slashed .304/.413/.645. That’ll play. He accrued 1.3 WAR in that time and has a projection for next season of over 2 WAR. If we were earlier in the rebuild, I’d be inclined to go for Sebastian Walcott and his prodigious power tools, but we don’t necessarily have the luxury of time at the moment. Carter may lack power, but Carter is “A patient, discerning hitter, Carter’s breaking ball recognition and feel for the strike zone is excellent. He’s chasing at a 17% clip and his overall swing rates are closer to average, which means Carter’s feel for the zone is legit, and elite.”
Owen White – SP – MLB – 45 FV ($4M)
I could write something about Owen, but I’ll just plagiarize a guy I know, “Owen is still just 24 and already debuted. There’s a ‘but’ here though. BUT, he’s coming off a subpar season. His velo is down. His debut wasn’t good and his AAA numbers weren’t all that encouraging.
So why’d I include him? You keep adding pitching until the pitching pans out. TINSTAAPP goes both ways.”
JV- Man, it was not easy to find a fit for Keller. I looked at three team trades. I looked at desperate teams looking to get over the top. There’s just not an easy fit for Keller.
I think I have our first official “mystery team” to appear on these pieces.
The AL Central is ripe for the taking. The White Sox appear to be in a rebuild. The Twins are reportedly looking to cut payroll. The Royals are in a perpetual rebuild. The division could come down to a cage match between the Guardians and the Tigers.
The team: The Detroit Tigers
Tigers get-
Mitch Keller-SP($26M)
Ji-Hwan Bae-Utility(more than you think)
Bae isn’t just there to balance the trade. Having a guy that can play CF/SS/2B and flat out fly can be the missing ingredient for a competitor. Ask David Roberts about how speed can help in a series.
Pirates get-
Colt Keith-2B/3B-ETA:2024-FV 50($28M)
A bat first guy. Straight from fangraphs-
“Keith may not have a position, but he has a pretty stable hit/power combination that will profile at third if he can actually stay there.”
I don’t see 1B innings anywhere in his profile, but the thought is he can handle it.
TY Madden-SP-ETA:2024- FV 50 ($21M)
A mid 90’s fastball with a 4 pitch mix to boot and a frame to eat some innings up.
This would be a fantastic package in the early phases of a rebuild, so this package comes with a caveat. GMBC should not pull the trigger on a deal like this in a vacuum; not as he pushes the team into a chase for the playoffs. A deal like this would only be acceptable if he has other moves in the making.
Perhaps even flipping one of these prospects in a separate deal for a guy like Andrew Vaughn and his 3 yrs of control? Or signing multiple free agent starters? This isn’t a prospect gathering competition, and hopefully Mr. Cherington understands that.
CS – My deal involves heading out west to Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers find themselves in need of shoring up their pitching staff with some proven punch. My proposed move would be a bit of a risk for both teams, but in different ways.
Dodgers get – Mitch Keller – P ($26M)
Pirates get – Emmett Sheehan – P
Ryan Pepiot – P
I think this deal would really sting both teams in interesting ways. Obviously it would make the Pirates wince in giving up a proven horse. On the other hand, the Dodgers would be giving up two younger up-and-comers with major league experience, but no real established track record.
Both young arms from LA put forth solid work in 2023 when called upon. There were some ups and downs as generally expected from young pitchers, but the upside was on display often too. I would go so far as to say that Pepiot is one of my favorite “breakout” pitcher candidates for 2023. There were some luck factors in his line (.189 BABIP, 99.2% strand rate), but the stuff performed well and he has terrific prospect pedigree coming out of the tremendous LA pitching dev factory.
Sheehan also flashed some spicy secondary stuff with three offerings clocking in with 40%+ whiff rates & sub-.200 xwOBAs. For the Dodgers to move them both, they would need to love Keller and think that they can get even more out of his game. Frankly, the LA pitching lab can probably do it.
Conclusion
JB – As we have reiterated throughout this piece, none of us want to move from Keller. This was a formality due to the fact that some interest exists and teams are potentially calling. I wouldn’t accept the deal that I suggested, and I likely don’t take any of the other deals on the table. Get an extension done, and let’s start adding to this club!
CS – While all of us have gone to great lengths to say that we do not endorse this sort of move – I have to admit – if these prices were actually met…I would probably live with it. But yes, Joe, get Mitch locked in and then build.
JV- I think all three of us have shown moving Keller is problematic for a lot of reasons. Finding a partner is hard enough, nevermind asking a team like the Rangers to part with Evan Carter. Or the Dodgers to part with not just one young starter, but two, and giving up the much needed depth it takes to get through a season. Or my package that added more unknown prospects. Joe said it best, Get an extension done.
Sometimes succinct is best. Get it done.
Steel City Pirates 