11-18-23 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on X
Justin Verno- A quick announcement before we get going: Cory is skipping this installment due to other obligations. And in next week’s installment, Joe will bow out as he also has other things to tend to.
So for this week’s piece, Joe, It’s just you and me my, dude! This is THE piece we’ve been waiting on!
Joe Boyd- Ha, yes that’s correct! We move on from being consistent sellers to actually giving this buying thing a shot. Today we will look at acquiring an OF/1B bat. These will look different from previous installments, obviously. We won’t need to set the market with a Bucco, rather we will reverse engineer a trade target’s value and put together a package from the Pirates to make it work.
JV- Outside of starting pitching, 1B and OF are the Bucs obvious needs, but how they deploy Henry and Endy will weigh heavily in how they proceed. Joe and I aren’t here to write on where or how they need to play the guys though.
JB – I wanted to take an approach that provided two deals from the same club. I think that the Chicago White Sox present intriguing options for the Pirates as they appear to be rebuilding. Let’s first look at the home run swing and then we’ll look at a more pragmatic, risk-averse option.
Home Run Swing:
Pirates Receive: Luis Robert – OF – MLB – SV$43.6-$70.2M
I’ve included Fangraphs projections for Robert and his remaining contract. His SV is a wide range due to those Team Options. If he falls off a cliff, the team can just decline those options resulting in the $40M valuation, but I imagine that CWS will push for the assumption that he has 4 years of control and won’t let Robert go for a discount.
Robert broke out in a massive way in 2023 slashing .264/.315/.542 and hitting 38 homers while swiping 20 bags while being an incredible defender. Health will always be a concern, but a player of this caliber (former #6 overall prospect) would be a massive boost to the club. So what does a deal like this look like?
CWS Receive:
Termarr Johnson – IF – ETA: 2027 – FV 55 ($46M)
Quinn Priester – SP – ETA: 2024 – FV 50 ($21M)
Bubba Chandler – SP – ETA: 2026 – FV 45+ ($6M)
This deal almost aligns perfectly from a value perspective. It provides Chicago with both long term building blocks and a starting pitcher with plenty of control. All of these players are high pedigree guys and considered cornerstones of the rebuild. Do you cash in those chips for one outfielder? If that outfielder is a bonafide star like Robert it could make some sense, for sure. But we know GMBC, and he’s more of a risk-averse GM that may look at a buy-low candidate that could pay huge dividends. Well, Chicago has one of those too.
The sensible approach:
Pirates receive: Eloy Jimenez – OF – MLB – SV$4-6M
Jimenez was acquired, along with three other prospects, from the Cubs in a deal for Jose Quintana in 2017. He went on to debut in 2019 with 31 home runs at just 19 years old. And in a shortened 2020 season, he won the Silver Slugger Award by batting .296 and hitting 14 homers in 55 games. In the three seasons since, Jimenez has dealt with some injuries that have limited his output. However, when healthy, the 6’4 240 behemoth can still do a ton of damage with his bat. He’s grown out of being a 5-tool prospect and is likely looking at a 1B/DH profile, but he could also plug into RF. You are not getting Robert’s defensive profile with Jimenez, but the cost is exponentially lower.
Fangraphs has Jimenez as a 1.9-2.2 WAR player in 2024. He also has two club options. So the long term risk is extremely low, but the purchase price today is also low. So what could Pittsburgh do to get Jimenez in Black & Gold?
CWS receive:
Zander Mueth – SIRP – ETA: 2028 – FV 40+ ($3M)
Mitch Jebb – 2B – ETA: 2026 – FV – FV 40 ($2M)
Let’s go to Longenhagen to see what Pittsburgh is giving up.
For Meuth “His fastball and slider combination from this slot gives him a great chance to profile as a nasty reliever, at least, and given the right development, he could be an impact arm.”
For Jebb, “Defensive versatility will be important for Jebb since he is unlikely to have the power to profile as an everyday second baseman. He projects as contact/speed utilityman.”
I’m intrigued by Meuth’s profile, but with an arrival at 2028, he could miss the playoff window or he could flame out. It’s a risk worth taking. And Jebb is a low-ceiling prospect that the Pirates have in spades.
JV- Stars like Robert are what gets a team to the promised land. Is it giving up a lot? Sure is. But ya gotta give to get, it’s just the way it is.
I’ll start with my reasonable trade package and my eyes are on Toronto and Vlad Geurerro Jr. I hadn’t really considered him to be a trade candidate, but I’ve seen his name get thrown out there with one person wondering if it’s time for a change, so what the heck? Let’s have fun.
Using the same tool as Joe used above(Fangraphs) we’d come up with a modest surplus value of about $6M for Vlad, however using the current 4.1 STREAMERS projection paints a higher SV of $25M. If that catches you off guard you aren’t alone. This is in part to a hefty $20.4M projection for his arb 2 season. It’s likely the Bucs won’t pick that up in full, I think it’s a good bet that the Jays will pitch in a few dollars to “buy” a better player.
Pirates get-
Vlad Guerrero Jr-1B/3B-MLB(SV $6-25M) and $10M in cash
I get that his numbers have dropped a bit, but I think he’s due for a rebound. Vlad is still just 25 so his best days could be ahead of.
Blue Jays get-
Nick Gonzales-2B/SS-ETA:debuted-FV 40 (SV $2M)
Bae is another name I think the Bucs would consider here if the Jays prefer, but Nick kinda fits the profile with quick hands and a compact swing. Maybe they have better luck in closing the hole in his swing while solving the 2B need.
Luis L Ortiz-P-Debuted SV?
Still in pre arb, he has a good deal of control so the SV is likely higher than you’d think. And sure he’s a starter here, but I think it’s a real possibility a move to the bullpen is in his future. This is a solid upside for the Blue Jays as he still has the upside of a rotation arm.
Thomas Harrington-SP- ETA:2026- FV 45($4M)
Giving up Harrington is tough, especially since I think he gets a bump to a 45+. His velo is a bit higher than I expected. His K rate is higher than I expected. With the Buccos being so deep in arms, I think this is an area they can deal from.
I get this deal isn’t sexy for a guy that hit 26 HR last year, but his arb projections limit the surplus value. In reality I can see the Jays seeking a lotto ticket as well(if they are to listen). And I’d be open to that, depending on the ticket. Hudson Head? Sure. Lonnie White Jr? Probably not so much.
Home run swing-
It is rare that we use the same team for a deal, Joe. But if the Chicago White Sox do in fact rebuild and decide to go deep into a “tank,” they have enough desirable players that the turnaround could actually be short, relatively speaking.
Stay with me here as I’m looking at pairing it up!
Pirates get-
Andrew Vaughn-1B/OF- MLB-(SV $30-35M)
Three years of control left and the power hitting 1B has a surprisingly low projection of 1.8 WAR. But there’s some things to like here. He’s 25. Has power. And perhaps most importantly? Can play RF/LF and 1B, this specifically fits what the Bucs should be looking for considering the Endy/Henry situation.
Dylan Cease-SP-MLB-(SV $24-30M)
His age 27 season had him at 3.7 WAR. His K rate was still a strong 27.3% and his velo looked fine. Pirates need pitching, so adding Cease to the mix would be huge. With two years of control left, the Bucs would be wise to lock him up fast; we all know they can afford the contract. The time to be cheap is over, Mr. Nutting. All I’m asking here is to be a little less cheap. Let’s call it “frugal,” as Dylan Cease is a pretty safe bet.
CWS get-
Termarr Johnson-2B-ET:2027-FV 55($34M)
Many of you will have TJ at the top of the Bucs prospect list and have likely already stopped reading because of this. Look, I get it. But if you want to add a Dylan Cease and a power bat that can play 1B and OF? (again,a need catered to the Endy and Davis situation?) This is how you get it.
Anthony Solometo OR Bubba Chandler- SP-ETA:2026 FV 50?($21M)
The Bucs have done well in adding big upside arms to the system and moving one of the 2021 draft arms seems like it could be inevitable. LHP is so hard to find. But Bubba has one of the best power arms in the minors. While FG has neither as a 50 FV both are on at least one list as a 50 FV. It also wouldn’t surprise me if FG gives them the bump. Pick your poison.
Quinn Priester-SP-Debuted-FV 50($21M)
Moving QP here just makes too much sense. It gives the White Sox an immediate guy to throw into the rotation. It’s clear the Bucs need starters and moving Quinn may not be the best looking plan. But if the CWS would like him in a deal for Cease I’m making the swap faster than you can say Buctober!
If the CWS doesn’t value Bubba or Solometo this high it certainly throws a monkey wrench in my package. But I don’t imagine it takes a whole lot more to get something done.
Conclusion –
JB – It’s finally exciting times in Pittsburgh. You see other ne’er do wells like Arizona and Baltimore and Texas in the playoffs and it’s time to see the Buccos turn that corner. If they can stay healthy and add to this core that will get back Oneil Cruz and add in pieces like Paul Skenes, you could see a Wildcard team in 2024. Is GMBC willing to mortgage some of those controllable assets and get a marquee name such as Robert? If so, perhaps the club could do some damage in the playoffs. More likely, he’ll go for a lottery ticket like Jimenez that could provide much needed power in that lineup while sacrificing some defensive ability. If Jimenez can stay healthy, that’s an impactful bat you can plug into the lineup for such a little cost that it just makes so much sense to explore.
JV- A deep team gets you into a playoff run, but more often than not it’s the stars who help finish the job. Joe and I have shown examples of some big time names and we’ve shown some solid but smaller upgrades. The dream here is obviously adding a Luis Rober Jr type. But if the Bucs do go with the more reasonable approach, that’s fine too. Either way, Bob Nutting has a ton of talented and controlled players up and down his roster. He has room to add some players who cash some bigger checks come pay day.
It’s time to add a Luis Robert Jr or a Dylan Cease. It’s time to sell some tickets. It’s time for a playoff run. It’s time to take me out to the ballgame, Bob!
Steel City Pirates 