11-30-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
My biggest miss in looking at the NL Central in 2023 was the St. Louis Cardinals. On paper, the team appeared to have the needed build to keep pace with the rest of the division. Boy was I wrong!
The Red Birds finished 71-91. Things went wrong right out of the gate & never really improved much from there. Despite having a potent enough offense, the defense & pitching was simply not up to the task in 2023.
In the preseason outlook for the Cardinals here at KYE we did note that the pitching would be a weakness without the team addressing it in-season. In wrapping up the 2023 season for St. Louis this major question remains. What will the pitching look like? Who will they bring in? Will they throw some cash around? We will find out (spoiler alert they did).
Pitching
Adam Wainwright – The ride finally came to an end for a St. Louis fixture. Father Time finally caught up to Waino seeing him post a -0.4 fWAR final career season. He did however reach the 200 win milestone, and it is very possible that we see no other starting pitcher reach that number again with the way pitching is trending. It was an ignoble end to a great career, but he was a great pitcher for a very long time. Congratulations on your terrific resume, Waino.
Miles Mikolas – Mikolas turned in a 3.1 fWAR 2023. His performance was very quietly impressive. Mikolas was one of only 5 starting pitchers to hurl 200+ IP and he finished with a top 26 fWAR among qualified SPs. Yes he is boring. Yes he is underrated.
Steven Matz – Matz had a good bounceback season, but suffered a lat injury that held him to only 105 IP. He was still able to chip in 2.0 fWAR & appeared to have reclaimed the form that made him a desirable free agent after the 2021 season. It remains to be seen that he can top 150 IP. Should he return from injury (and mostly avoid it) he will be a valuable piece in 2024. (Editor’s Note: It has now been reported the Cardinals are planning to move Matz if they can find a deal)
Matthew Liberatore – No way to sugarcoat this one, Liberatore stunk again in 2023. He will be just 24 years old next season & he does possess great pedigree, so the Cards won’t be giving up on him just yet. It is worth noting that he did see a modest velocity jump in 2023. It remains to be seen if he can be a long term Major League starter, but he is too young to count him out just yet.
Zack Thompson – Another young lefty with first round draft pedigree, Thompson showed some ability in 2023. While it wasn’t incredibly inspiring, I think that Thompson could have more sauce than his left handed counterpart Liberatore. Just a 66 IP sample size for Thompson, so 2024 should be the year to get a real sense for his ability & his pitch mix is pretty interesting. Or maybe we won’t get to see what his ability is…because the Cards have been busy
Lance Lynn – Old friend Lance Lynn has been re-signed by the Cardinals. Lynn had a down 2023 as it looks like he lost a bit of juice in the overall repertoire. He was able to still pile up Ks and IP, but the output was definitely lacking. His stuff simply did not play as well which led to more quality contact allowed, more HR surrendered, & a pretty poor final ratio/fWAR line. Lynn should still be able to post 175+ K’s and chew innings, but without sharper execution or correcting the 2023 issues, he might have another high-strikeout + middling ratio season on tap. His move away from two hitters parks in Chicago & LA will help, but will it be enough to cure his HR issue?
Kyle Gibson – Is Kyle Gibson an ace? Well, no, duh. But is Kyle Gibson an above-average, mostly reliable innings hog? Well, yes, duh. Watching immediate fan reaction to Gibson’s signing has been interesting. Many seem to think he stinks. He is clearly not a “star”, but he is also clearly not bad. His pitch mix is pretty interesting in that he possesses a sinker that generates a lot of contact, but with a negative launch angle, that really isn’t bad, and the third best sweeper in all of baseball for 2023. The sweeper was a revelation for Gibson & I might even argue that it earned him this deal. It earned a 46.7 whiff rate and had a paltry .181 wOBA against. Is it good to have an elite offering? Or is that bad actually?
Sonny Gray – Perhaps the biggest move in the NLC as of writing this, St. Louis brought in the AL Cy Young runner up to anchor their staff. Gray inked a 4 year/45 million dollar deal and Cardinals fans should be pretty happy about this one! He will be 38 at the time he retires, but getting a pitcher of this caliber for a $12.5 AAV hit is a nice get. We mentioned the sweeper in Gibson’s blurb, well, this man threw the best sweeper in baseball in 2023 (pure coincidence the Cards signed them both? hmmm). I do not think fans should expect another 5+ fWAR, Cy Young candidacy here, but I would be shocked to not see him post a 2.5+ fWAR year.
We need to acknowledge here that the Cardinals just added what Streamer projects to be 534 innings of 7.5 fWAR starting pitching. As it stands right now, Fangraphs has them projected with the 6th highest team fWAR for 2024. Just something to think about. It has been a good offseason so far and it is just beginning.
Bullpen Bullet Points:
Ryan Helsley – Beast of an RP. Mostly replicated his 2022, but a regression in command & injuries dinged his overall output. Should be a bullpen stud again in 2024.
Giovanny Gallegos – Took a real step back in 2023. Has a decent track record for being better than that. Bullpen guys are mercurial, I’d expect to see him better in 2024.
JoJo Romero – JoJo found something in 2023. He was straight up good. If it can mostly stick, this trio will be trouble for opposing teams.
Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy had a somewhat disappointing year in 2023. The lowest OPS, batting average, 3rd lowest HR total, 2nd lowest wRC+, & wOBA of his career to date. Folks, age catches up to every player. But maybe not yet? It is easy to look at the back of the baseball card stats here & his age ticking up to 36 and think, it’s so over. But his underlying numbers say not so fast. The batted ball data is still great, the xStats great, quality of contact and hard hit rate, still great. While the overall output might begin to diminish, Goldy is still a dang good hitter and could defy the decline curve for a few more years.
Nolan Arenado – Unlike his running mate above, I think I am buying the 2023 version of Arenado a little more. Through most of his career, Arenado has had a skill (and I do believe it is a skill) for outperforming his underlying stats. I hesitate to predict this skill slowing at just age 33, especially when he has done it for every single year of his career, but I think we see it start. The defense took a step back in 2023 as well, but it was still good. Even a diminished form of Arenado should be able to post 2-3 fWAR seasons for a while longer.
Lars Nootbar – Nootbar was a hot pick for a big breakout in 2023. He did underwhelm a bit, but posted a quite good 3.2 fWAR due to his all around play. I do think that he might be a post-hype breakout candidate since he piled up injuries in 2023. He has a great approach and makes quality consistent contact. He is a good ballplayer.
Jordan Walker – Walker had enormous hype as an uber prospect. Many might see his season as a disappointment, but for a 21 year old it was really encouraging. I expect Walker to establish himself as one of the game’s bright young stars within the next several seasons.
Tommy Edman – Edman was not able to replicate his star turn from 2022, but he is still a high quality player. He is a versatile speedster with a lot of rock solid tools. Not a star but capable of well above play in almost all facets of the game.
Brendan Donovan – Speaking of versatile & well rounded, Donovan was having a nice little breakout in 2023 before succumbing to injury. His power output was taking a nice step forward making him a more complete player. If his swing changes are here to stay I don’t see why he won’t have a nice 3-5 more solid years of being a mainstay in St. Louis.
Willson Contreras – A dreadful start made his sizable new contract look gross early on, but he finished with a very typical performance in 2023. His defense at catcher is not great. His bat is still darn near elite for the position. All of the batted ball data and underlying numbers back up him looking very much like a good player still.
Tyler O’Neill – Talk about a bad year. O’Neill was injured on and off as usual and found himself in the managerial doghouse. He has not been able to be on the field enough to come close to repeating his monster 2021 campaign, but he did make some notable gains in his approach. 2023 say O’Neill cut his K%, whiff %, and chase rate. I am a sucker for the tool set he possesses. He is big, strong, and fast. If he could get near 500 ABs, the production will follow.
Farmhands
I do not want to focus too much on the farm in this version of Know Your Enemy, but I feel that just a few blurbs are needed.
Thomas Saggese – Thomas Saggese was added at the deadline from Texas. Simply put, he was one of the best minor league hitters in baseball in 2023. In AA, Saggesse put up a 92 run, 25 homers, 107 RBI, 11 steals, .322/.391/.587 triple slash, .978 OPS, 150 wRC+, and a .424 wOBA line. He split his time between 2B and 3B. There is no clear positional opening for him yet, but he will likely debut in 2024.
Masyn Winn – Wynn debuted in 2023 and struggled in a 37 game sample. He did level up his offensive game in AAA though and that sufficiently changes his player profile some going forward. He has a massive throwing arm, but a just so-so defensive profile. The bat now appears to have at least above-average potential along with above-average to plus speed. The opening is not yet clear, but he looks like an exciting piece.
This is a good place to wrap a brief tour of the Cardinals team. My preseason KYE piece for the Cards was definitely a miss. The team’s pitching issues were clear then, but the extent of the issues were really not clear to me then. As we have all seen, they are taking the steps to try and reverse that with veteran additions. The young pitching that is “ready” simply does not look good enough, so what they have done is admirable to say the least.
I again expect this team to be a real player to take the NL Central crown in 2024.
Steel City Pirates 