Know Your Enemy – Milwaukee Brewers 2023 & Beyond

12-5-23 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter

The 2023 NL Central champions are going to see some changes this year. Some, like letting Brandon Woodruff go, make sense financially given his injury and contract status. But the rumors of a Burnes trade do not have to happen. Their roster features some steady veteran performers and a whole lot of younger players looking to establish themselves. This team is good enough to be a division winner yet again. We will see what direction they ultimately take, but let’s look around the organization and see the lay of the land, shall we?

Pitchers

Corbin Burnes – There are already some whispers that Milwaukee might trade their big dog. Burnes is set to hit free agency in 2025, so these rumors have some grounding in reality. If the team doesn’t think they will be willing to pay the man long term, moving him now would probably net them a “better” return. However, this division is WIDE open. Navigating this is not easy. Frankly, I’d say keep him and try to win it.

Burnes was not quite as good in 2023. Make no mistake though, he was still very good. He is an absolute king when it comes to surrendering weak and poor-quality contact. Strikeouts dropped through, so I can see why some fans might be disappointed. But fear not, he is still quite legit.

Freddy Peralta – Freddy P had a great 2023. Reached a career high in IP and games started, his entire arsenal was excellent, and he piled up Ks (210!). This version of Freddy was very close to his breakout in 2021. Injury is probably his main obstacle to having a nice run of “prime” years ahead.

Brandon Woodruff – Brandon Woodruff is no longer a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. In a sort of shocking move, the Brewers non-tendered Woodruff on November 17, 2023. Woodruff is expected to miss almost the entire 2024 season and is a UFA in 2025. He will almost certainly be signed and stashed, but it is a risky venture. When he was on the mound in 2023, he was an ace. Whoever signs him will likely need to sign him long term and trust he can return for them in 2025.

Adrian Houser – Houser had a pretty OK 2023. He is a solid, above replacement level starter that can probably give this team another good chunk of innings. Maybe 130+ IP of 1+ fWAR baseball?

Colin Rea – Rea is very similar to Houser. So similar that we could plug the “pointing Spiderman meme” in here. Put him down for about 130ish IP of 1-1.5 fWAR. 

Bullpen Bullet Points

Devin Williams – The man with the airbender finally got his shot to be a closer. He did not disappoint. Total stud.

Joel Payamps – Experienced a major breakout in 2022. Looked mostly legit hurling 70 near-elite set-up innings. Bullpen projection is oftentimes tough, he has a chance to stick though.

Abner Uribe – My goodness is the stuff loud here. Uribe kind of came out of nowhere. Only 3 minor league IP in all of 2022 and just 23 purely dominating IP in the minors in 2023. Called up and was immediately nasty in 30.2 MLB innings. One to watch.

Hitters

Jackson Chourio – Early offseason rumors look to be coming to fruition. The Brewers appear to be set to ink Chourio to the richest contract ever given to a yet to debut player. 8 years for 80 million dollars along with 2 team options. These contracts come with the risk that a player simply might not figure it out at the major league level. But the cost/benefit here has an equally massive upside. At worst Chourio shares the “best prospect in baseball” mantle with Wyatt Langford, and Jackson Holliday in a 1A/1B/1C situation. Chourio is a beast. A power/speed mutant that also made plate approach strides in AA as a 19-year-old. 

Chourio is my personal #1 prospect in the sport. One of the only current prospects with a Ronald Acuna Jr./Fernando Tatis Jr sort of skill set & ceiling. All prospects have risk, and even the most talented ones have a learning curve once they are called up. But he looks like a future all-star & possible megastar.

William Contreras – This may surprise you to learn, but, by fWAR, William Contreras was the best catcher in all of baseball in 2023. He was both a terrific hitter and defender in 2023. His power numbers were a bit lower than I would have expected, but the hit tool was really good. The power should tick up some even. Great player.

Christian Yelich – I think that I wrote this in every single month of the season, but Christian Yelich is still very good. Lots of folks seem to not agree because the gaudy, MVP caliber numbers are mostly gone. But I will never understand penalizing a player for simply being really good & not great. I will also not discount his still being good because he got paid after posting back-to-back 7+ fWAR seasons. He earned what he got, in my opinion. All the tools and ingredients are there for him to remain a 2.5-4 fWAR guy for a while longer.

Willy Adames – Adames is settling in to a nice career at this point. Quietly posting 3+ fWAR seasons in three consecutive years now. His batting average and likely his statistical output overall took a dip due to a low BABIP, this figures also may be tied to his declining speed. There is a possibility that his game trends more toward being a lower average slugger as he rounds in to his prime “grown man” years. Given that he is an impending UFA in 2025, there is an outside chance that we see his name pop up in trade rumors as soon as this offseason as well.

Sal Frelick – The 2021 first round pick made his debut in 2023 and it was almost exactly as billed. A strong, strong plate approach, quite valuable defense, great on-base skills, with below-average thump. His profile is not one that gets me particularly excited, but there is no denying that he is probably going to be a long-term Major League OF. The batted ball data was not particularly inspiring in his 57-game rookie year, but I expect him to be a double plus speed, plus defense, average to above average hit tool player for the Brew Crew going forward.

Garrett Mitchell – Mitchell had piping hot 17 game debut before being felled by injury for the remainder of the season in 2023. Hard to get a true read on Mitchell in that small sample, but he flashed the ceiling at times as a power/speed option. He also flashed the issue with swing & miss. Not a lot to glean from it other than he looks like he could be fun assuming he gets his health back for 2024.

Joey Wiemer – Frequent readers will know that Joey Wiemer is one of my guys. Tyler O’Neill 2.0 skillset, but with premium centerfield defense. If Wiemer is able to cut his whiff issue down, he will have a chance to be a legitimate MLB star. He’s a power/speed freak for a man his size & is capable of playing near elite CF defense. Whiff and approach issues can totally derail a player, it is true. But Wiemer is as tooled up as almost anyone. It seems to be assumed that Mitchell is going to get an everyday job over him, but I am not so sure!

Jake Bauers – Former top prospect for the Tampa Bay Rays, he was dealt to Cleveland in exchange for Yandy Diaz (oops!) and was never able to put it together. Since then he has kicked around (Cleveland, Seattle, Yankees) and found some modest success in the Yankees lineup in 2023. This has the feel of a placeholder player, but it is worth mentioning that in a small sample size, Bauers had some interesting underlying data. He had above MLB-average EVs, barrel rate, xSLG, xwOBA, & wOBACON. No real idea if it will roll over, but there could be a little meat on the bone here for a post-post-post-post hype former top prospect breakout.

Brice Turang – I almost skipped Turang, but figured we needed to at least mention the 2018 first round selection. He is very fast (96th percentile sprint speed), and he played solid defense at 2B. The bat looked not ready for primetime, but in AAA he was a pretty well rounded hitter. If the bat clicks he could be a sort of Tommy Edman-lite type of player for Milwaukee. If it doesn’t, there isn’t much shot of him remaining a regular.

Farmhands

In the Cardinals Farmhands section I decided to not mention a ton of players, but with the Brew Crew, it would be a disservice not to discuss a few more. They have a significant rising tide of young players. Many of whom we should see in 2024.

Tyler Black – Tyler Black had an enormous breakthrough in 2023. Terrific approach, mega speed, the power popped off between AA/AAA too. He has all sorts of infield versatility so there are at least two positions where he could fit as soon as the team can get him to town (1B/3B). I am a little hesitant to say he has a “star” ceiling, but he looks destined to be a very good Major League player, and soon.

Jeferson Quero – As if Milwaukee needed another young impact bat, they were aggressive with Quero in 2023 and he handled it well. He manned primary catching duties in AA all year at just 20 years old. Typically catchers are slower to develop given the demands of the position, but he looks to be one of the premium hitters at this position in the minor leagues. Possibly has a chance to see the Bigs in 2024.

Robert Gasser – Gasser had a really nice season at AAA. He does not seem to offer top of the rotation sort of play, but he looks the part of being a Major League starting pitcher. He took care of business at AAA and he will almost certainly get a look for the Crew this year.

Jacob Misiorowski – Big time, monster stuff. Miso was one of the big pitching prospect risers in the game this past year. Control is a little wonky, but the stuff & K potential is devastating. Got a taste of the upper minors and the strikeout stuff was there, but control went out the window. One of the most enticing pitchers in the minors based on pure stuff.

Eric Brown Jr. – Suffered an injury that set his development back some in ‘23. Prior to going down he did flash the wheels and hit tool that made him an interesting prospect. He is a player I will be watching closely to see if he can take the “Tyler Black” leap this upcoming season.

The Brewers are in a position where 2024 is somewhere between a “transition” point, they could deal away Burnes theoretically or even shop Yelich to make room for their young OFs (Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer), they could stand pat, or do they even look to add? The Central is open to all comers at this point. I think the Brewers have the pieces to take the NLC again, especially if a guy like Chourio comes up and gives them a huge boost right away. 

Following their remaining offseason moves is going to be fascinating. Until next time!