Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – The Big Chips Are Home

12-11-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Well, we finally know where Shohei Ohtani will play baseball next year, The Dodgers and some of us pretended it wasn’t almost 100% guaranteed to be his landing spot. Toronto was little more than a decoy in this whole thing and we’ve already seen the “good person” tests issued. You know, you have to be 100% happy for Ohtani getting 700 million or you’re an evil owner loving bootlicker, or a sore loser fan of one of the loser teams that “would never”, not couldn’t, participate. Even as this deal makes Ohtani on paper richer than Cincinnati’s owner. Look, if you’re one of the people attaching some kind of moral litmus test on things like this, I promise, I’m never more than 2 sentences from pointing out how hypocritical you are, and what side you take hardly matters.

You see, for some, you must hate the “rich”, and root for “labor”, but when labor makes as much as many of the rich, I’d simply point out, much like Alex Rodriguez before him along with a host of others, Ohtani himself will become the hated “rich”. That’s right, he’ll employ people (and they might even make less than him!!!), he’ll donate money to avoid taxes, he’ll start businesses, he’ll invest in businesses, I bet he’ll even fire people, but the way he earned his money will be different. Different in that you’ll know, read, hear how hard it was for him to earn it, hell, you watched it. Regardless of the truth, 90% of baseball owners are there cause daddy was rich right? We accept the rich as long as they’re the right kind of rich, or they visibly spend the right way, or, I suppose, if they are a member of the most powerful union in the country.

He deserves every last penny. That doesn’t mean it’s good for baseball. When you have to bargain with the part of yourself that isn’t ok with 100% of something, you aren’t abandoning your principles, you’re critically thinking. Enjoy.

In case you can’t tell, I’m a bit irritated by this Ohtani story. For a ton of different reasons too, none of which spawns from believing the Pirates or 27 other teams were really in this or that it guarantees a World Series for the Dodgers.

1. Necessities List for 2024

This isn’t going to be another post about what this team needs to add this offseason. Nope, it’s going to instead be my yearly list of questions to answer. Last year number 1 on my list was “Will this team lock up Reynolds or are we farther away?”, and thankfully this one was answered at least partially, maybe the farther away part wasn’t as tied to that as I’d hoped.

Anyway, here we go.

1. Will they get the Keller Extension done? I can’t think of anything internal more pressing. Given the state of the rotation, he’s the only internally developed anchor they have, and I think they’ve more than proven what a pitcher like him would cost on the open market, they aren’t doing. And, much like Reynolds and Hayes before him, he too very much so wants to be here.
2. How many starters can get a foothold? This doesn’t have to be all prospects, this could be anyone. Say Jackson surprises us and the Pirates, point is, can we enter the offseason following 2024 with 3 starters we feel good about under team control? To me, there is no more crucial question as to how seriously we should be taking 2025. If this is Keller, Priester and Jones, awesome. If it’s Keller, Brubaker, and Ortiz, sweet. I don’t care, just don’t enter the offseason after 2024 needing 3/5 of a rotation. Have Skenes ready to enter a settled situation should he not make it this year and be one of them.
3. Is Oneil Cruz a Star? Honestly, I feel most of us have taken for granted he’s going to destroy MLB. I don’t just mean good, I think some folks have him as capable of Acuna stuff this year. Maybe he is, but folks, we don’t even 100% know where he is going to play. We know where he’ll start trying to play, but that’s it. I don’t need Cruz to be the SS to be a good player, but I do need him to tell us this year where he’s going to play if not there. His injury made this a priority, we’re talking about a guy that as we sit here, we can’t put a finger on value, just his enormously high ceiling. I’ll sum up what this season for Cruz is for this team, picture him as an emerging superstar and with a little pitching, this could be fun. Picture him as a struggling young player who hasn’t played a ton of baseball in the past couple years, this could be not so fun. It’s not all on him, but many fans are already looking at him like the second coming, imagine if after waiting all this time he kinda doesn’t have much to say.
4. Find clarity at catcher. Not a question so much as a need. They have to figure out what they’re doing here. If it’s a question heading into 2025, I’m afraid they won’t know what holes to fill and which to leave exposed.
5. If someone looks like they’re taking second base, LET THEM! With as many players as the Pirates have who can and have played second base, my fear is they won’t give any of them a true shot to win it. Having guys compete for it is fine, but when one looks like they’re taking the lead, they need to let them run with it and see what every day looks like on them. Take your obvious breaks and what not, but if Peguero looks like he’s finding it for a couple games, give him a month. Let him try to feel owning a position instead of wondering every day where he might play, if he might. I’d rather not try to win with 7 guys who consider themselves utility players. We’ll never see if someone can handle it, if we don’t find let them try. The only reason not to is to fear choosing the wrong one, and again, you’ll never know until the Pirates or someone else lets them play.
6. Make 2024 decision year on Shelton. If Ben Cherington gives Derek Shelton what he believes to be “competitive” there can be no outcome that doesn’t reflect on Shelton. Cherington too, but he’ll survive beyond this season regardless. First, he gets the manager to blame. And yes, he hired him, buck stops here, all that, but fans do that stuff, not front offices. I’d imagine that plays out this year. I don’t think he has to make the playoffs (for the team, not your expectations), but I do think if they don’t the team has to have fairly big injury problems to have the focus not point at Shelton. Just my opinion here, nobody has so much as whispered Shelton’s name within earshot of me that hinted at anything other than him coaching here for a very long time.

2. An Outfield Spot is Available

The news about how the Pirates plan to use Henry Davis behind the dish opens a hole some had only had as a luxury. The starting outfielders as we sit here today are Bryan Reynolds in Left and Jack Suwinski in Center. Regardless of how this turns out, the intention of the team is for Jack Suwinski to play just about every day, and unless they bring in a better option, they plan to have him handle Center.

Some of you probably hold out hope that Ji Hwan Bae can eventually take hold in Center, and I’m sure the Pirates aren’t done trying that too, but he’s seen as being more capable of the spectacular than the routine, and that’s not great when you don’t have a game changing arm to make up for miscues. Additionally, his bat simply hasn’t shown enough to consider taking a huge jump as extremely likely. Rather Bae is a group of skillsets, it remains to be seen if he’ll turn it into a ballplayer. He doesn’t have to hit 20 homeruns, he doesn’t have to hit .300, but if he’s going to stick, he needs to get on base at more than a .300 clip, and whatever yips he developed on the bases, he needs to overcome them.

The Bucs have to find some help, because Joshua Palacios isn’t enough to count on either. feels like this is setting up for a couple options, neither of which I’m in love with but I could see them thinking like this.

First one is Andrew McCutchen except this year, actually play him in Right 25-30 games. This could help unlock and utilize the DH spot better, but at Cutch’s age, we could be a calf strain away from a plan being shelved.

Next is to get a player who can play first base and outfield, but most of those aren’t entirely good at either.

I think I’d much prefer they spend a bit of money here, and folks, I’d get the Center Fielder, as opposed to the corner guy. I know they need power, but center is where they need to add another playable player in my opinion.

I know it’s not something we had at the top of the list, but I’d feel much better getting another bat with some experience. Sounds like Cherington is leaning toward getting an outfielder too, but it feels to me this isn’t a spot to just get a bench guy to compete with Palacios or Joe for playing time, I’d rather get something that lifts the whole group.

3. Roansy Contreras On the Brink, but Don’t Count Him Out

Roansy Contreras is out of options. His need to be protected and option situation was part of the reason the Yankees made him available, and since Contreras started his Pirates journey largely just killing it, most of us headed into 2023 had him in the “OK there’s something there” category. After 2023 played out, it’s hard to bring up his name without feeling a little sad. He was as developed as anyone in the rotation when we began the season and by the end, the man was nearly in tears on the mound at PNC, frustrated, probably scared of what was happening to him, and on a team just as concerned and just as full of questions.

Something happened to Roansy last year, and it wasn’t just the league learning. No, all the things you measure for a player like this changed.

I mean, look at this…

Folks, a change like that, drastic changes in some of these things, they just don’t drastically jump like that, not with no reason anyway.

We talk about things in generalities because bluntly, none of us are experts, but that extension figure is the weirdest one. An increase in that was almost 100% taught, trained, and encouraged. In fact, I know it is internally one of their focal points. They’d like all their pitchers to have great extension, it makes velo seem faster, and it makes break more exaggerated, for the hitters. But everything else took a hit. None more than his chase rate, which was near elite and became barely pedestrian. Fastball velo is way down percentage wise, but the actual measured velo, not all that much really.

His off speed and breaking stuff actually got more effective. His fastball a precipitous fall off the table. Again, the velo didn’t really drop much, even the spin didn’t change much. What did change was physically his extension, which in turn changes his release point.

There’s something weird here. As far as I know, and of course I’ve asked, I’ve even asked my journalist friends to ask, which they have. Nobody has a physical injury being a cause here. In fact, as I said earlier, the extension numbers don’t jive with the issues he’s encountered.

All that said, a decision will be forced this year. A Roansy Contreras that looks even like he did in 2022 changes the complexion of all of our rotation conversations doesn’t it? In fact, if Roansy comes back looking like the one we all envisioned pitching meaningful games for Pittsburgh, it means a ton for how this whole thing progresses.

2023, we find out if he’s in, or he’s out. It really kinda is that simple.

4. Deflated

It’s kinda hard to jump right back into talking about free agency here for me. I mean, for my own mental health, lol, I don’t want to follow all this Ohtani news by telling some fan the 15 million dollar guy he wants his favorite team to sign is “too expensive” or risky or whatever. It’s no less true than it was 2 days ago, but, well, talk about how great marriage is to someone who just got divorced. Deep down they probably believe in love but for right now, go to hell, amiright?

Again, I feel the need to keep repeating this, I LOVE Ohtani, and honestly know he deserves every penny, I even know he’ll make that much for the Dodgers. I don’t begrudge him any of what he gets, even if they paid for what he was, as opposed to what he’ll be for most of his contract. Doesn’t even matter for what he’ll bring in financially off the field. Nothing about this is just “Rich team signs great baseball player”, it’s much more international icon territory, and Japan is ALL in on Ohtani mania. You may have looked, but relatively speaking, LA and Japan ain’t too far apart, and they’ve NEVER seen him make the playoffs, that very likely changes this year.

Point is, I need a minute, cause I don’t know about you, but the Pirates could sign Jordan Montgomery for 25 million a year and I’m not sure I could muster the excitement for it I’d have had 2 days ago, not right now anyway. Even though absolutely nothing has changed for my baseball team, or their chances, the simple charade that how much he was signed for would have impact in light of current events, I’d have a hard time really enjoying it. That’s me, certainly hope it’s not you, I don’t like having clouded thoughts I can’t shake.

I’ll get past it, I always do. Sometimes just writing stuff like this will kick me in the ass. In many ways, it’s like that time in your life when you’re sitting in a meeting, listening to someone tell you how they saved 55 cents a year from some process change and you realize, hey, this isn’t what I went to school for is it?

You get it? I’ll rebound, and you’ll probably pretend you’re having fun drinking a beer brand you don’t like at a holiday party with people you work with every day too this year. We all just need to find our dose of copium.

5. Deferring Contract Money

Here’s part of the Ohtani deal that is worthy of real concern, especially if you believe MLB’s system of taxing the big spenders to fund the low revenue teams is working. We don’t have real numbers yet, but estimates for how much of Ohtani’s record breaking 700 million dollar deal could be deferred well into the future have been floated that could turn his 70 million per AAV into a number that looks a lot more like 30-35.

The way the CBA is structured, the Dodgers (and many other teams by the way) have the ability to defer a percentage of salary, of course given the player is on board into the future.

I’m not going to try to tell you this just started, it simply hasn’t. You all know the Bobby Bonilla story where he gets a cool million from the Mets every year. No, this has been going on forever.

Thing is, there haven’t always been CBA Tax cap implications.

This used to be a way for teams to stretch their budget. Need a player now, well, pay for some of him later when you have more room in the budget. It’s just like going to Levin Furniture, the couch as a 1,200 dollar hit vs a 40 dollar monthly hit can sound doable if you don’t have the 1,200, even if it’ll cost you in the long run.

It enabled the Cincinnati Reds to bring Ken Griffey Jr. home, and last year in 2023 the Reds paid Junior 3.6 million bucks. Only 2 Reds players made more.

The Orioles are still paying for their Chris Davis mistake, 9 million last year. Just a million less than their top paid player Kyle Gibson. Hell, they paid good old Bobby Bonilla 500K too!

So it’s not new, the Washington Nationals used it to retain Stephen Strasberg, a mistake they’ll pay for well into the future, and a mistake they made AFTER he provided a World Series Championship.

This though, this is different. This is from Jeff Passan at ESPN, “The Dodgers are going to pay Ohtani $700 million, but the present-day value of the contract will be markedly lower. The details matter. How much of the money is deferred (“a majority,” said a source) and how long the deferrals last will give a better sense of how good of a deal this might be for the Dodgers, minutiae that will offer a better understanding when the deal is official sometime midweek.

This part is key,

Major League Baseball discounts deferrals when calculating the amount teams are charged in the competitive balance tax accounting system, and rather than the $70 million a year a straight contract would cost, Ohtani’s deal is expected to wind up somewhere in the range of $40 million to $50 million a year.”

Now, the benefit to the Dodgers here is clear. Because of this, they’ll be able to spend more this year to surround him. Totally makes sense, but on a contract of this size, we’re no longer talking about 5 mil here or 500K for this guy, instead we’re talking about hundreds of millions potentially being spread out so that less tax money is put back into the system as well.

In theory, the Dodgers could push this thing out 40 years. People will praise Ohtani for wanting to win so much he begged the team to defer some of his salary. They’ll praise the smarts to basically set up a retirement pension for himself. Almost nobody will talk about how this is jobbing the system. And no, I don’t think Ohtani had anything but altruistic intentions here, I’m sure he did want it this way for competitive reasons.

Again, I don’t believe the system works, but let me explain the theory and yes, I am in a mood, so it’ll be filled with smarm, sorry.

Big revenue teams spend lots of money because they have lots of money. Low revenue teams don’t because they “can’t”.

Regardless of what any one owner is capable of, MLB as far as this process and set of rules is concerned, there very much so are owners who can, and owners who can’t. It’s probably more accurately Owners who do and owners who don’t, but as far as MLB is concerned, the revenues generated directly by baseball are the only revenues that count.

They don’t care who made their money where. The baseball team and what it generates is all that counts.

Some teams can’t spend a ton, some can. Simplified to it’s core.

The Luxury tax was implemented to help keep the lid on an ever widening gap form top to bottom. For a while it was a brake in the spending, it was even strengthened in the last CBA.

Immediately after signing the CBA Steve Cohen and the Mets set forth to thumb their nose as the scary new penalties put in place.

The Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, they all blew past the new “roof”, and now, I think we’re going to start seeing them using deferrals to limit the tax paid.

If there is less tax paid, there is less revenue sharing spawned by it. Again, I don’t feel it works, but this is the theory, that the rich teams spending, actually helps the non spending teams with their tax dollars.

Maybe next time I’ll get into how this system actually incentivizes a team to just stay on MLB welfare if you will.

It’s easy to just scream cap and floor and have that stupid fight to nowhere with each other. In the meantime, this system is broken and we aren’t even looking at how badly because we’re too hung up on cap vs no cap. There are things we could try to fix or improve that could at least make things a bit more even.