1-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
PiratesFest was fun but now it’s time to get back to the business of building this team for what Derek Shelton again on the record said they want to win this year. Now, I wouldn’t expect him to say he planned to finish last, but I’m not sure I see a division winner as we sit here either.
The holidays are gone, PiratesFest is over, it’s time to get as serious as I hope they know it should be to tell hungry and hurt fans a Division Title is within reach if it isn’t….
…unless they’re right.
1. So a Division Winner Huh?
It’s possible, it’s always possible. I mean, many of you remember 1997, you never know, and your division, well, it’s always going to be true, anything can happen.
Baseball is about likelihoods, percentages, playing the odds, all of that, so I have no issue with shooting high, but to make such a goal something you put out in the universe, I’d like to think you sure it up, you know, at least make the bet realistic.
Hey, all joking aside the Steelers just got help and got in again! Don’t sit here and tell me something isn’t possible. lol
Let’s talk about what they really need yet, and no, I don’t care if a prospect has to start in AAA, or a player needs traded or DFAd or whatever method of moving players needs to happen. If they want to win this division, one that other teams are still shaping, they need more and that means honestly evaluating areas of weakness, and upgrading them regardless of the corresponding mess you potentially create, of course within reason.
First Base – Rowdy Tellez can’t be the only addition at first base, unless one of two things is true. 1. They think Conner Joe is way better than he’s shown, and no, I don’t think he’s awful. Or, 2. They believe someone else like Jared Triolo is not only going to make the team but he’ll hit enough to man 1B. I suppose 3 could be that they believe Tellez will play the defense of his life and he’ll also revert to his power numbers from 2022, and stay a lot healthier than he did last year and… I’d sure this up, and while I’m not sure they’ll land Carlos Santana, I can say their biggest competition for him might be the Mariners and the Brewers, neither of which want to add much payroll. I think he takes 7-8 million to get done, he had that kind of season where even a year older than the too old he was last year, he’s probably getting a raise. I know normally you’d say the Pirates don’t spend, why would they spend here? All I can say is, it’s not about that, it’s about what I think they need to reach such a lofty goal.
Starting Pitcher – Specifically, they need someone who can help Mitch Keller carry this staff. Usually what that looks like for this team is a guy with at the very least recent performance that suggests he could do it again, but for some reason or another, didn’t last year. They don’t have to trade for this, but I don’t think there are more than 3 players who might classify as capable of filling this role on the traditional market remaining, Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell. Two of those guys are going to get 20 million plus, one maybe 16-18. All will want years. Below that, you have Ryu, Lorenzen, Paxton and you could probably add a few more. this group you could probably get for a year or two, 10-16 depending on who. Trades present some options. The Royals have some young pitching and might want to move some guys who still have a couple years of control to make room. Seattle, Miami, who knows, Colorado does something stupid every year, ask them, lol. Point is, they need to find one, and it needs to at least be of a quality that you can expect 25+ starts and look decent doing it. Non-negotiable, probably even for just a Wild Card. I don’t care what it costs for this reason, Atlanta just got Chris Sale in a deal and extended him to restructure his entire contract, on top of getting Boston to pay the entirety of his 2024 commitment. I get it, not a Pirates deal model, but my point is, Atlanta didn’t add payroll here in 2024, so I don’t use a generic payroll figure to argue “improved” or not.
Center Fielder – I’m fine with Jack in Center, but more than anything, I want Jack taking 550 at bats this year, so if you bring in an outfielder, bring in an outfielder that improves the defense out there. I have no desire for an outfielder who isn’t going to start 135+ games, so if it isn’t a starter, I’ll pass. And as I already said but feel the need to repeat here. If you want to improve a team, you can’t have feelings. Moves like this could cost Joshua Palacios a job, maybe Conner Joe, this Olivares kid for sure, and bluntly, if it improves the team, it can’t matter. You can’t serve both masters in this game. It’d also be good if this was a right handed stick.
Catcher – The Pirates have Henry, Jason Delay and Ali Sanchez all right here, and Binz, Abrahan Gutierrez I can’t see dipping into the depth here. This one, I’m iffy on, if Henry can handle 70-80 games, ok, but if not, we have to be clear, Jason Delay isn’t the starter on a playoff team. This one could be as simple as letting it play into Spring, really give Henry a good look and if you feel ok, well, roll into the season a little and see how it plays out. If it looks like there’s just a poison pill he can’t overcome, or you just can’t let it go yet, grip up someone like Tucker Barnhardt should he not make the Arizona Roster from his minor league deal. Tyler Heineman is always a threat to wind up available again. If you’re going to fortify this to slow walk Henry, it can’t be for all that long. At some point this team is going to have to accept he may not be perfect but everything about him works better for the roster if he’s catching, at least until there is healthy competition for him again.
I’d call that 3 and a half things they have to do, and some ways to go about it. In the next thought, I’m going to talk about how I see this 13 position player set starting to look.
2. Lucky 13
The Pirates may not be ranked top 5 at a whole lot of positions, but when it comes to ceiling, they’re sitting in a pretty good spot almost everywhere, well, except first base forever and always.
I like to break the roster into 2 sets of 13, one for pitchers, and one for hitters. Of course, when the team comes North they could choose to keep 14 of either and 12 of the other, but by sometime in April they’ll be back to 13/13.
Let’s do the fielders as we sit here, and if there’s a competition at a position, well, I’m declaring my leader in the clubhouse too I suppose.
The Starters
C – Henry Davis
3B – Ke’Bryan Hayes
SS – Oneil Cruz
2B – Liover Peguero
1B – Rowdy Tellez
LF – Bryan Reynolds
CF – Jack Suwinski
RF – Edward Olivares
DH – Andrew McCutchen
The Bench
C – Jason Delay
OF – Joshua Palacios
1B/OF – Connor Joe
3B/2B/1B – Jared Triolo
The Fringes
2B/CF – Ji Hwan Bae
C – Ali Sanchez
2B/SS/3B – Nick Gonzales
SS/2B – Alika Williams
SS/2B – Tsung-Che Cheng
LF/RF – Canaan Smith-Njigba
CF/RF/LF – Gilberto Celestino
The NRI’s/Vet Filler (There will be more)
3B/1B/RF – Jake Lamb
LF/RF/1B – Billy McKinney
1B – Seth Beer
Non-40 Prospects to watch in 2024 for call up and why
C – Abrahan Gutierrez – None of the Pirates MiLB catchers are offensively impressive, but Abrahan is arguably the best defender who’s close.
1B/2B/3B – Aaron Shackelford – He’s 27 has a ton of power, if he’s ever getting a shot, even if it leads to being DFA’d days later it’ll be this year.
1B – Malcom Nunez – He’s only 22, so washing your hands of him would be premature, that said, he’d have to push to make this a reality. An emergency won’t get it done, as his age makes him more valuable than a guy like Shack. Just sayin’.
2B/DH – Termarr Johnson – I think he could push his way onto this team by the end of 2024. I also think this would require a whole bunch of extreme good from him and bad from the options in front of him.
3B/2B – Jackson Glenn – System guy here much like Shackelford, but also a use him or lose him type.
CF/LF/1B – Matt Gorski – Big power when it emerges gets noticed. Show it with less strikeouts and who knows.
RF/3B/LF – Joe Perez – Interesting late season pick up, really might be something there. At least enough to put him on this list. I’m at least as interested in him as I am Celestino, well, minus the CF ability.
That’s what I got. I think as we sit here they have 15-16 guys who can stake some kind of claim to an MLB role entering Spring, and remember, I want them to add.
I’ll let you do the math.
It’s not that I dislike guys like Joe, or Palacios, or that I think any of the prospects in particular stink, but you have to recognize as you look at a roster the weak spots, even if they’re nice guys who couldn’t be better ambassador’s for their team.
I will only speak for myself here, I don’t hate any player, well, ok Kolten Wong, but I mean Pirates players ok?
And the last thing I’ll say here because it’s the first time it’s been this way since Cherington took over. For the first time at bats at the Major League level aren’t only part of development, now they have to contribute to winning too. If they don’t, those at bats simply need to come in AAA instead or decisions need made as to whether we’ve seen enough or not on a guy.
For instance, in 2022 it makes more sense to give Jack Suwinski at bats, than it does to bring in a Conner Joe type. In 2024 it becomes a bit harder for prospects to crack through, and yes they should make it even harder. The harder it is, the better the depth will be, and hopefully the more prepared they’ll be when called upon. If a dude forces the issue, so be it, but no more can they arrive on some arbitrary schedule.
3. Projections & Offseason Progression
Part of the discourse over most off seasons inevitably becomes projection. Let’s guess who does what.
At best, fans will base their projection on whatever someone did last year, and if they’re extra into it maybe they’re adding in a full load of at bats or innings and projecting all that out with it to guess.
That’s all STEAMER and ZIPS really are, formulas that look at player histories and project out what a player might do. Both of them also have to project how many at bats/innings a player might get too, which is really hard. For instance, I “cover” this team and I couldn’t begin to tell you how many innings Quinn Priester will pitch in MLB this year and if I were to project based on his 2023 numbers, well, quite frankly he’s not getting more innings if he pitches like that.
In other words, those projections have a place, and they’re fun but for me they’re more accurate the longer a player plays, so for a team like Pittsburgh or Baltimore for instance, well, I have a hard time placing much in them.
The point of this thought though, is more to remind you baseball players take their absolute biggest jumps in execution, development, bulking, trimming, shaping, timing, in the off season, and absolutely nobody can project out how damn hard someone is going to work, and what the results might bring.
Yup, that knife cuts both ways too, see Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras last year. That’s not to blame them for not working, it’s more to say, just going through an offseason doesn’t guarantee growth either, regardless of what you try to get done. In other words, maybe soften what you “know” into what you “think”.
At least let this though wash over your brain when you start talking yourself into Nick Gonzales being expendable or Ji Hwan Bae’s experiment being over or Jared Triolo being a .300 hitting All Star Utility infielder.
When you get to the point where you think you’re sending MLB talent to the minors when you break camp, this is the kind of stuff you start to look for, rather than just picking a few names and waiting for them to get here.
Right now, I like the mix of potential 2B. Come Spring, I could wind up thinking they have 4 I want to see or none. And that feeling right there, is why teams don’t just leave spots for rookies willingly unless they don’t expect to win or are frugal.
4. 2 Offseason Proposals
Hey, MLB changes their rules every year, and it’s supposedly for the fans. Let me make a couple that I think could make the MLB offseason more fun.
Eliminate the 60-day Remittal Process – Now, what I mean here is, if a player is going to start the following year on the 60-day IL like JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodriguez, the exercise of purging the 40-man to fit them back on only to transfer them once Spring Training opens slows the market for free agent acquisitions by creating a spots game for teams. I understand why you would be concerned this could be abused, because if it can be they certainly will, but there must be something we can do to at least minimize the risk there even if it requires independent medical opinion to confirm designation. For a team like the Pirates, they aren’t exactly thrilled to have to DFA any of their 40-man and 4 of them won’t play before July if at all in 2024. To me, that’s just market crippling as they absolutely aren’t alone here. We keep crying about a slow market, but to me, this almost guarantees it will be because you can wait to pick up mid tier and below.
Put in New Deadline Structures to Force the Action – As it stands, there is no deadline for signing Free agents and in season that makes sense, but there’s also no structure to MLB’s off season free agency that funnels action and focuses fans. No, in MLB, even as the Championship Parade is ongoing teams are already posting qualifying offers, making option decisions or scrambling to re-sign a pending free agent.
5 days is all they get before boom it’s free agency time. To me, build up some anticipation. Give us a bit bigger of a period to try to woo a player to stay in town instead of free agency. Create an environment that when you open the market, teams are chomping at the gate like Secretariat .
10 days later you have to purge your roster (creating new free agents) to protect guys from the Rule 5, which usually fills most of your spots.
Then boom onto tendering arbitration guys.
The Winter meetings used to feel like a spot to look to. A place where deals got made, guys got signed, a flurry of activity in the baseball world where teams added and swapped and a buzz was created. Now though, it really accomplishes little of that, the free agent market is held up by agents until the perceived top tier starts signing.
With no deadline, well, ever, it can just drag on and on. Put in some milestones. Get creative. Maybe open an early window and it’s just for 75 million plus contracts that lasts 2 weeks and then everything is open. I’m just spit balling, but this isn’t going to just get entertaining again on it’s own, not as things are structured.
5. Things I Still Expect to See in the NL Central
Brewers – It sounds like the Brewers are leaning toward trying to keep what they have together at least until they get to the deadline. The buzz seems to be that they are not making Adames, Peralta or Burnes affordable. I’d imagine if a team really looked like they were jumping to the top of the division they might be budged but feels like they plan to at least enter the season trying to compete and delaying a potential retool.
Cardinals – The Cards jumped out early and added pitching, specifically starting pitching. Sonny Gray is the big swing, and they added competent depth beyond that. Feels like they’d still be ok moving some of their younger position players even after moving Tyler O’neil but they certainly don’t have to. They’re probably improved, but nobody will know and I can’t claim to understand where they go from here. I think they realize they need more young pitching, but this isn’t a team that “rebuilds” they reload. This could be a staging year.
Reds – The Reds have done well, with some nice additions to the fold. And, they were already a pretty strong squad. They almost have to be at least close to done, I can’t imagine they want to move any of that young talent they worked so hard to build up, at least not yet, maybe at the deadline if they are in position. Cincy will and has spent, but they also know they need the core to be young and cheap to ultimately get where they want to go. I think they sit in the weeds now and the question with them will stay the same, is the sophomore jinx real? If so, they’re screwed, cause they have an absolute mess of them. To me, total wild card team this year. They caught fire, but kids react differently when presented with adversity. Let’s see. Pirates have many of the same issues and concerns.
Cubs – They’ve spent more time hiring coaches and team executives than signing anyone of note. I can’t imagine they get into the season without adding. They’ve been rumored in just about every big name, so it’s not like they aren’t offering, and I’d assume they wind up getting Stroman or Bellinger at least, if only because they had fans really believing last year and losing those two while doing nothing isn’t going to sell in Chicago. Right now, how can I evaluate this club? I can’t, I just know Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon aren’t enough and MVP bats don’t grow on trees.
6. Bonus
If you made it this far, January 12th MLB clubs and Arbitration eligible players must submit their offers. So expect to hear some kind of news on Mitch Keller this week. Could be just a contract for the year to avoid Arb, or, you’ll hear about them going to a hearing and the figures will leak out. People will call them cheap. Others will yell about extending him. more still will panic about the though of him hearing bad things about himself if they make him go through the process.
Yup, it’s that time of year.
Also, the Pirates hired Scott Seabol to be a hitting instructor in the minor leagues. I just so happen to have talked to him a bunch.
Here’s an article…. https://insidethebucsbasement.com/2020/04/26/communication-is-the-fuel-that-fires-the-engine-a-conversation-with-eric-minshall-and-scott-seabol/
And here he is on our podcast The Pirates Fan Forum
A ton of insight on a coach the team just hired. You might never hear stuff like this for a coach in a minor league system. Enjoy if you like!
Steel City Pirates 