1-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
Most of you saw the announcement last week about this website changing to Steel City Pirates, and since you’re here, it’s obvious it hasn’t prevented you from getting here, so, awesome.
I covered a lot of ground in the intro article, but let me just move that ball forward a bit. We will be adding a couple new writers here in the next month, at least one more podcast and I plan to build out a page where you can go every week to see all of the shows on video.
I’d like this site to become a hub for all the Pirates podcasts we love and an outlet for all those podcasters to write.
Spread the word, help other fans find the site and let’s blow this thing up bigger than we ever did before.
1. What if Marco Gonzales is, Gasp, Good?
Let’s be as real as real gets here. Marco Gonzales is coming off an injury that almost no pitchers recover from, at least not to a degree where they return and are effective. Nerves are funny things, and you’d almost be better off having a tangible injury that can be repaired in a traditional fashion.
A first round selection of the St. Louis Cardinals back in 2013 out of Gonzaga, Marco made his debut at the age of 22, and he’s thrown 893 innings in the Bigs.
After a fledgling start in St. Louis, he was traded to Seattle and that’s where he became a solid performer. From 2018 through 2022 Marco would start 131 games and deliver 765.2 innings, including being the opening day starter for the Mariners 4 times.
Last year, Marco was plagued by this nerve issue, in fact, just getting a diagnosis was a struggle. He wasn’t healthy, but nobody could tell him exactly what was wrong. It forced him to try to push through, before they finally discovered the issue and shut him down.
Marco is also seen as a soft tosser, meaning, 91-92 and a bunch of breaking stuff, which from the left side can play. Well, frankly, some have decided even that is too much to expect.
Well, enter Gonzales, who claims to be 100% healthy now, and is working hard to recapture what made him worth his 15 million dollar price tag, and yes, I’m aware the Pirates aren’t paying all that.
Good stuff, because last year there was real fear he’d just never be right again, and when Marco is right, well, you won’t see him as a “5” or whatever.
Now, how many innings do the Pirates expect to get from him? Unknown, and they’d be wise to leave it there. This is still a scary injury, and while he feels right, it could crop back up at any time.
Bottom line, at worst, this is Rich Hill from 2023, at best, Jose Quintana.
This isn’t to convince you they’ve done enough, just to remind you they haven’t done nothing.
2. Rumors & Whispers
For many fans, not seeing rumors and whispers about their team equals not doing anything. I’ve quite literally heard some fans claim just hearing the Pirates were interested in a player is better than nothing.
Well, let me word this carefully, because there are a ton of people who like to pretend they’re super plugged in to the inside. Let me again be very clear, if you do this long enough, you’ll get contacts and you’ll hear stuff. Knowing what is “reportable” is a skill.
If I told you every name I heard, every whisper that swirled, every conversation someone nudged me was going on, I’d hit on something here or there, and some of you might actually think I’m one of the insiders. Thing is though, I’d have about a 10% hit rate for being right, because the truth is, most of the things you hear, they simply aren’t report worthy.
Real reporters get even more of that stuff, and they too have to know the difference.
There are times when the best thing to do with information is allow it to inform your writing, but not push it out to the masses to watch it get turned from a whisper into a swirling vortex of consternation and expectation. Bluntly, it’s not fair to you.
It’s also not fair to say nothing is happening. There are conversations, there are deals that have been proposed, some that have gone all the way to agree or not agree. Players they’re interested in, workouts they’ve attended, contracts they’ve offered and there’ll be more too, but telling you that the Pirates are “interested” in a player is just about as useful as me reporting the Pirates Fans are interested in winning.
Now, let’s say I’m sitting here writing and I get 3 or 4 text messages from different people, and 3 times without me asking one guy’s name comes up. Well, that might be worth me mentioning. Especially if they’re in different departments.
I’ve chosen to take this approach because when I tell you about a rumor, I at least want you to know, it’s a solid rumor, at least by my standards. A daily dump of “news” won’t do anyone favors.
3. The Bednar Conundrum
We all love David Bednar, the hometown kid has become the latest in a long line of local kids making it big, and he happens to be home to do it.
This year David hit Arbitration and just agreed to a 4.51 million dollar deal to avoid a hearing.
He has 2 years left of arbitration before he hits Free agency after 2026. Currently, David is 28, he’ll be 29 during the 2024 campaign.
A heavily used closer, Bednar has pitched 179.2 innings since being acquired in 2021. He’s visibly worn down for spells in each of those 3 seasons here in Pittsburgh, and last year in particular, he rebounded nicely from one of those spells as well, which hadn’t happened before.
Arbitration will keep getting more expensive. If he duplicates his 39 save performance with a 2.00 ERA from 2023, well, next year his arb figure will hit 8, maybe 8.5. Arb 3, again if he keeps killing it, maybe 10.5 – 11.5.
The Pirates should be able to afford that, but knowing how these arb figures will likely evolve, should paint a picture of what an extension could look like for Bednar. You’d have to buy out those arb years, and you’d probably want another year or two.
I’m not sure that’s how I want a team that doesn’t spend enough to spend their money. And yes, it killed part of my yinzer to say it. Like I’m quite sure he’d take something like 4 years 32 million if only because he’s one of us, but even if he did, is that what you want?
Do you trust he’ll still be an elite closer in say 2027? That salary would still be ok even if he regresses to a 7th or 8th inning role, but everything they do with this player will get more scrutiny. More betrayal for a fan base already expecting it and fearing it.
I think the Pirates might end up extending him because of when he expires on top of the hometown kid thing, but I’m really struggling with it, because if David loses so much as 2 MPH from his heater, he’s nowhere near the effective closer he’s become. That will absolutely be the first thing to go too as he ages.
Brains might need to beat out heart here, and this team doesn’t have the credibility with this fan base to make the call right now in my opinion.
4. If 2024 Goes Bad
We all of course hope the team just keeps trending in the right way but if it doesn’t, let’s talk about what we can expect as we head into 2025.
- The team would not enter yet another rebuild, they’d just keep rolling with this one and try to get back on track.
- The GM would remain in place, so would the team president.
- A step back would spell trouble for the coaching staff, their jobs would all be in jeopardy.
- If the record doesn’t improve, but by the end of the year it looks like they have 4 or 5 internal starting pitchers in the Bigs and going well, 2024 could be looked at as little more than a blip. In other words, if the vets they brought in bomb and it leads to internal growth, it might be a step back that leads to a spring forward in 2025. In this case, all bets are off on the staff.
- Payroll will rise in 2024, and it’ll rise in 2025 again, regardless of how this season goes.
- Obviously player evaluation will take place, and we’ll move on from some, but it would be hard to avoid this team being even more talented at the Big League level come 2025, just through internal promotion and growth.
5. The Offseason Remains Slow
The stubbornness of the market will have to break within the next two weeks. We aren’t far from Pitchers and Catchers reporting, so it stands to reason, teams need to have some sense of who they’re sending.
Some free agents like Jordan Montgomery, have been very overt about where they want to go, and they aren’t afraid to wait to make it happen. Other top tier guys like Blake Snell, aren’t traditional starters, so the market value doesn’t match traditional estimates.
All of this stuff will get worked through, and dominoes will start to fall. The Pirates need this to happen if only because the signings are going to knock other players loose and create availabilities via trade that weren’t there before.
These types of conversations happen all the time. Track is laid on a deal, but it’s shelved waiting for one of the teams to land a piece that makes it all make sense. For instance, let’s say someone wants Conner Joe, well, the Pirates might not feel they can do that until they’ve signed another 1B to platoon if not start there.
Maybe a ridiculous example, but just trying to illustrate the types of background stuff going on. Now, multiply that by like 20, cause a whole bunch of other teams are doing it too, and they don’t know what all the others are doing.
ALL that said, deadlines create action, and Pitchers and Catchers isn’t one, but it sure acts like one as it comes to roster movement.
Steel City Pirates 
I really like the point about the bigger signings shaking out more options still dont wanna be left standing when the music stops
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