01/22/24 By Ethan Smith / @mvp_EtHaN
Some of the biggest news of the Pittsburgh Pirates off-season was news none of us wanted to hear, as news broke that Endy Rodriguez would be sidelined for the entirety of the 2024 season after having reconstructive surgery on his UCL, repairing his flexor tendon.
Derek Shelton expressed, even before Endy’s injury came to light, that the Pirates other top catching prospect and former number one overall pick Henry Davis would be thrust into the a catching role in 2024, a spot Rodriguez occupied for most of 2023 after the departure of Austin Hedges. After the injury announcement, it became a bit more.
Rodriguez occupied that spot mainly due to being more defensively inclined then Davis at the time, with Davis’s struggles defensively pushing him to the corner outfield and designated hitter for his debut campaign, struggling to find footing defensively in the outfield as well.
When a general manager drafts a catcher as high as Davis, the tools have to obviously be there for the selection to be made, and he showed them at Louisville, having a career 1.001 OPS with the Cardinals. He continued that success in the minors, becoming one of the fastest rising first overall picks in recent MLB history.
The questions about his bat are still there of course considering he’s only seen 225 career MLB at bats and hit a measly .213 with a .653 OPS last season, but the bigger question is this, can Davis play the catcher position?
We only saw two Major League innings from Davis behind the plate last season, and he’s already been outspoken about bulking up physically and working in Bradenton to improve defensively.
One part of Davis’s defensive game that we have nothing to worry about is his arm talent, ranking in the 98th percentile in all of baseball in arm strength last season, which you would expect to a plus pop time at catcher, something Davis has always done well with, grading out at a 70 in arm talent out of the draft.
Davis also did well in throwing out opposing baserunners in 35 games in the minors last year, throwing out 16.7% of opposing runners, which ranked better than Jason Delay, who had a 10% success rate at nabbing opposing baserunners.
Where things get sticky with Davis is his blocking and pitch framing, both areas of importance to the Pirates brass.
He can improve in both areas for sure and again, has been working on those areas of improvement in Bradenton, while also working with the staff and potential call-up candidates, most notably Paul Skenes.
That’s a big deal for Davis, seeing as he’s still developing on how to handle a pitching staff as well as scouting opposing hitters, all things young catchers have to learn with time at the big league level.
There’s no doubt Davis will put in the work, he’s just that kind of player, and with the arm talent already being a plus and the potential of his framing and blocking improving, he could play his way into being the full-time catcher moving forward.
But, what if he doesn’t? With Rodriguez returning in 2025, the pressure is on for Davis to figure it out, and that includes hitting the baseball as well and being the player the Pirates projected he could be when he was drafted.
His offensive outputs last year won’t cut it, and if he does continue to struggle defensively upon Rodriguez’s return in 2025, do you move him the outfield again?
A ton of emphasis goes towards his defensive improvements, but he has to hit the baseball too folks. FanGraphs highlights his strikeout rate, pull-happy tendency and ground ball rate as areas of improvement, also being adamant that he needs to be more aggressive with hitter friendly pitches rather than chasing stuff that wouldn’t result in anything positive.
You have to consider these factors. It could be a potential doomsday scenario for Davis if defensively, he doesn’t improve and if his offense doesn’t take a noticeable step forward. The outfield has become loaded as well, with the introductions of Edward Olivares and Gilberto Celestino to the room and the potential that Ji-hwan Bae could be a more permanent outfielder along with potential debuts from Matt Gorski and Matt Fraizer, not including what’s already there.
That’s why the emphasis on his bat may be as important as his defense improvements, because he’s going to have to show the Pirates he’s worthy of a spot in the lineup even with his potential defensive woes.
Now the two sides are clear here. If the work he’s put in this off-season shows positively at catcher, improving pitch framing, blocking and using his strong arm, then Davis should be fine. If the bat improves to at least an average area for a catcher, then he’s more than fine because he’d be in the infancy of becoming a strong two-way catcher.
On the flip side, if the defense continues to be an issue, you have to find somewhere to put him defensively or make him a DH exclusively, a spot currently taken up by likely Rowdy Tellez and Andrew McCutchen, and if Cutch returns in 2025, then what?
Davis has the most to gain, or the most to lose in 2024. He’s thrust into the role as the Pirates catcher. He has the keys, he just has to drive and not blow a tire. If he gets to his destination, folks, you’ll be raving over him. If his tire blows out, the Pirates get into a very sticky situation, especially with him being a former number one pick.
Keep you eyes on Davis all season. Watch his maturation, I expect it, but if he doesn’t improve, he’s not all that safe just because of where he was selected in the draft. I don’t want to call it boom or bust considering this will be his first full season at the bigs, but a ton of pressure is on him to perform, and these are the decisions the Pirates are going to make for awhile with the construction of the roster.
It’s on Henry, and ultimately, his play, and that’s how it should be.
Steel City Pirates 
Quite frankly, I think it’s a domino effect at the linchpin position of the defense. One can also argue everything runs through the pitcher for obvious physical reasons, but from a mental side it’s usually incumbent upon the catcher, let alone the amount of physical work and craft required. He’s on a steep, unlikely climb, which will then have more ripple effects if it’s simply not going to happen.
For the position, that makes a split wherein Delay is the starter with Sanchez as backup, barring hopes of some waiver wonder in late March–definitely would fit the M.O. As much as Delay has exceeded expectations so far, I think it’s fair to say even a 1b time share would have him overexposed, at least offensively. Maybe not a Hedges-level hole in the lineup, they’d be close.
And then Davis must play elsewhere, taking time and a spot–given to aforementioned Sanchez from necessity–from whom? Triolo? Bae? I’m not sure there’s a good answer.
I’d be thrilled for Davis to pull this off, but the odds say unlikely. I still think this position is the likeliest actual hole from a non-pitcher standpoint, the one I’m most concerned about torpedoing a chance at 80-some wins before the ship even raises anchor.
LikeLike