1-25-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Relievers are a “dime a dozen.” You’ve heard it. We’ve heard it. It’s a volatile role which has a lot of turnover. That said, strong bullpens have led the winning charge for Pirates teams during the 2013-15 playoff runs.
Recent losing years have included some rough names coming out of the bullpen. Dovydas Neverauskas ring any bells?
No? Well, then you’re all the better for it.
But that is changing with the current string of relief pitchers the Pirates have acquired via trade or developed within their system and it’s what I want to break down for you today.
David Bednar (Closer)
I couldn’t start this list without doing Bednar first. I mean, he’s the new Pittsburgh Kid! Did you know his bobblehead plays ‘Renegade?’ But put aside that he drinks IC Lights while tailgating before Steelers game or is present at essentially EVERY Pirates community event, because none of that matters if he can’t pitch like he does. And this dude can PITCH!
That is the full workload for Bednar over the past 3 seasons since being acquired via trade from the San Diego Padres – keeping in mind that he spent nearly all of 2021 as setup man for Richard Rodriguez so all but 3 of those saves are from the past 2 years.
Among all relievers with at least 60 innings pitched last year, Bednar is ranked 6th in ERA (2.00), 4th in FIP (2.53), 3rd in fWAR (2.3) and tied for 2nd in saves (39). All that while posting a K% of 28.9% and a BB% of just 7.6%. No one else in baseball had a higher K rate and a lower walk number.
Again, relievers are volatile and Bednar could just as easily fall apart as he could keep it together but, for the sake of the city he loves and gets to pitch in front of every year, I think he’ll fight tooth and nail to be the best Yinzer he can until his arm basically falls off.
Aroldis Chapman (Setup)
When news broke that the Pirates acquired 2-time World Series Champ and noted “bad dude” Aroldis Chapman, my first thought was surprise but everything after that was pure elation:
I mean, just LOOK at these lines! Chapman may be turning 36 next month but the Cuban Missile can still deal, touching 101 at times during the 2023 season.
Yes, there’s some bad blood with Chapman, mostly among some ardent fans remembering the times he used that fastball for a little chin music against the Bucs – specifically, against Cutch. But that’s water under the bridge.
He’s also had his own off-field issues, which I won’t go into – though it makes this headline an unfortunate choice. He’s served his time regarding the matter. The question is, can he still pitch? And the answer is a resounding YES!
In 58.1 innings pitched between the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers, Chapman posted a 3.09 ERA, 2.84 xERA and 2.52 FIP. His control is an issue as he walked 14.5% of batters faced but his K% was 2nd best in baseball at 41.4%, behind just the Orioles closer, Felix Bautista (46.4%) among qualified relievers.
When you have one of the best closers in baseball being setup by a guy who could be closing games for at least half the teams in baseball, you have an embarrassment of riches.
Colin Holderman (Setup)
Heading into the off-season, Holderman seemed set for the 8th inning role. And, it’s still possible Shelton mixes and matches to move him around in the back-end of this bullpen.
His fastball sits 98 with movement and can reach triple digits while his sweeper has nasty movement that resulted in opponents hitting just .185 against the pitch in 2023.
He’s also the only member of the team to have thrown an immaculate inning.
His stuff is VERY good and he’s maybe the third best option out of the pen. He had some poor luck last year, resulting in a 3.86 ERA despite a 3.29 FIP. His sinker results in a high ground ball rate and his ability to avoid barrels (5%), leading him to tie for the 8th most holds (27) in MLB last season.
Dauri Moreta (MRP)
Moreta was acquired from the rival Cincinnati Reds last offseason for infielder Kevin Newman. Newman is no longer in Cincinnati but Moreta has THRIVED since leaving the hitter-friendly terrain of Great American Ball Park. A big key to his success has been his slider, which moves very differently from a normal slider.
Moreta had a strong start last season working in some high-leverage, high-pressure situations early and often. He usually came into close games with men on base. Over the course of the year, Moreta was tasked with 33 inherited runners and allowed just 8 to reach home. In high-leverage situations, opponents posted a .160/.290/.200 triple slash against him.
You can’t just eliminate a month or two from a pitcher’s season but, outside of June (9.00 ERA in 10 innings) and August (11.57 ERA in 4.2 innings), Moreta was ELITE. His final line on the season: 3.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 58 innings, a 31.8% K rate and opponents batting average of just .184.
And the best part is his underlying metrics (3.04 xERA and 2.93 FIP) indicate that Money Moreta could be even better in 2024.
Carmen Mlodzinski (MRP)
A 2020 Comp A round pick, Mlodzinski posted a 2.25 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 36 innings pitched with 34 strikeouts and 18 walks over 35 games.
He only recently transitioned from starting to relief and has some red flags with his control (30 walks over 62.2 innings pitched between minors/majors in 2023) but also an excellent ability to avoid barrels (4%).
He’s young and, although there is room for improvement, there’s a good amount to like with Mlodzinski.
Ryan Borucki (MRP)
Borucki was a surprise success in the bullpen last year, posting career best ERA (2.45), xERA (3.21), and BB% (2.6). He also saw his average exit velocity drop from 88.1 in 2022 to 85.7 this past year. His 0.74 WHIP was the best among all relievers with at least 40 innings pitched.
While the southpaw posted strong stats across the board, his BABIP of .206 is well below his career average of .273 and could indicate some regression on the horizon, though he likely will be an important piece out of the pen.
Who Else?
There are a number of other options who could play a part out of the bullpen this upcoming season as the team likely has another single-inning arm and a long-relief man added to this group.
2022 Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez had a 2.25 ERA through the end of May, pitching 24 innings with 23 strikeouts to 4 walks.
Through the rest of the season, however, the young lefty posted a 7.43 ERA over 26.2 innings allowing 7 home runs and 18 walks in that span while striking out 39.
Kid still has some REALLY good stuff, especially when you consider that he didn’t pitch above Double-A prior to this past season, but maybe he starts the year at Indianapolis to refine his stuff and build up to withstand a full season in the bigs.
Another option is Colin Selby, whose 9.00 ERA in 24 innings obviously looks bad. His opponents BABIP of .385 despite a solid groundball rate of 49.3% gives reason to believe he could perform better given a larger sample size. His xERA of 5.52, while still poor, would provide a big improvement while his FIP of 4.80 gets him closer to respectable production.
The key to getting better than that would come down to avoiding barrels, something Selby was unable to do in 23. Barrel rate of 10.1%, line drive rate of 24.6% and hard hit rate of 42% are all very poor.
His sinker wasn’t working for him in 2023, and he might benefit from going with a slider-heavy arsenal a la Moreta. Batters hit .395 against the sinker vs .192 against his slider. Ditching, or at least minimizing the use of, his less-than options will help him grow and develop as a solid arm out of the pen.
Kyle Nicolas similarly had a rough start to his MLB career, allowing 6 runs in his debut appearance against the Chicago Cubs while retiring just one batter. He pitched in 3 games after that last season allowing just 1 run over 5 innings, showing why he was, and still technically is, a top 30 prospect in the system.
Like Mlodzinski, walks are an issue with Nicolas (his BB/9 has risen every year, reaching 4.74 between AA/AAA in 2023) but he’s now shown the ability to rebound from a bad MLB outing, clearly, and can work multiple innings in relief.
Basically, there are a number of intriguing options. And this hasn’t even gotten into some names who might fall short of rotation, like Bailey Falter and Roansy Contreras.
Or the Non-Roster Invitees in Ben Heller, Hunter Stratton and Ryder Ryan.
If one of them gets added to the 40-man roster this spring, I will write about them. But, until then, it’s not yet worth the key strokes.
So What?
The Pirates have an embarrassment of riches in their bullpen when, over the past few years, they have just been an embarrassment.
And yes, solid relievers are a luxury to most teams. There are still some holes that we, as fans, hope the team patches before the Pirates head to Miami for game 1 on March 28th.
That said, when you’re looking to contend for your first playoff appearance in 9 years, it doesn’t hurt to have more than a few bullets in the chamber.
If you want to hear more about this bullpen, check out the latest episode of 412 Double Play Podcast.
Steel City Pirates 
MLB has made me care less and less through the years, so I’m not as abreast of other teams, but this feels like a top 10 bullpen at the least, certainly glad to have it. I’m just concerned the overuse and abuse will continue for yet another season, which could really bite the club for 2025 and onward if it’s TJ surgery for Bednar, rotator cuff for Holderman, etc.
In that sense the bullet analogy is very appropriate to how the Pirates have treated relievers’ arms: disposable and fired all at once. I’d really prefer if they treated them more like swords. 🙂
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