Shortly after agreeing to a one year 10.5 million dollar deal with Aroldis Chapman to bolster the bullpen, the Pirates stove would heat right back up when Robert Murray of FanSided reported that the Bucs attended a bullpen session for pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Micheal Lorenzen. While the Bucs have already made additions to their rotation this off-season, they still need to add one more arm.
Currently, the Bucs have Mitch Keller anchoring that #1 spot. The added arms? Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales. For those of you doing the math at home, that’s three arms to fill five rotation spots. I think one of those open spots will be filled by giving Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester or Luis L Ortiz an opportunity to lay claim to a spot before Paul Skenes and Jared Jones are ready to make their debuts at PNC Park. I cannot, however, see them keeping those two spots open for the purpose of giving those guys a second look. We’ve seen that movie before and it did not end well. Let’s get back to Thor and Lorenzen,
Let’s start by eliminating Syndergaard. Could they offer a contract to Thor? Perhaps they do, but if I were a betting man I’d take the “pass” on that. Does Lorenzen make sense? Let’s take a look at Streamers Projection for 2024:
ERA 4.73, FIP 4.78, xFIP 4.78, WAR 1.2
For the back end of a teams rotation, that’s solid production. It also carries an added bonus of Lorenzen having experience in the bullpen. Considering that at least one of the guys in the opening day rotation could slide to the pen,when Skenes or Jones are ready, that is a rather nice bonus to have.
So why am I so reluctant to see the Bucs add Lorenzen? Well, let’s start with the other guys the Pirates added and their Streamer projections for the upcoming season:
Pérez- ERA 4.78, FIP 4.80, xFIP 4.94, WAR 1.4
Gonzales- ERA 4.93, FIP 4.99, xFIP 5.20, WAR 0.8
Solid production, again for the back of a rotation arms. I’m just not crazy about having three guys that all project to produce like a #5 starter.
But wait, there’s more. Martín Pérez comes on a one year deal. Marco Gonzales has one year and an option and I have to imagine that Michael Lorenzen would come with a one year deal as well. Not a lot of help beyond 2024 there.
So what’s my solution? Call the Miami Marlins, ASAP. Please!
Earlier in the week, Jason Mackey had a sit down with Robert Nutting. In that interview Nutting mentioned two things that grabbed my attention:
1-That GMBC had some room to add to the payroll. And…
2-That he didn’t want to “mortgage the future” in any trades.
How do those two points play into calling up the Marlins, you might ask? Simple answer in two parts!
1-The Miami Marlins have arms to deal.
2-Avisail Garcia.
The 33-year-old OF has an undesirable contract. I imagine the Marlins would like to get rid of said contract. See where I’m headed here? Using the old Surplus Value formula lets take a look at how that contract would affect his trade value.
Garcia is set to make $12M per year over the next two seasons. He has a third year mutual option, but we can ignore that season as there’s no way the Bucs pick it up (at least I can’t see them picking it up) so $24M over the next two seasons is our number. His projected WAR in 2024 is -0.4. With more regression due to set in for 2025, let’s set the WAR for that year at -0.6 totaling a -1 WAR total over those seasons.
| -.4 | 24 WAR Projection |
| -.6 | 25 WAR Projection |
| -1.0 | Total WAR |
| x $9M | Cost of a Win |
| – $9M | Total Value |
| – $24M | Salary |
| – $33M | Surplus Value |
Moving Garcia and that contract while adding a possible need to the 24 roster is something I think the Marlins Front Office would be happy to do.
The arms, in no particular order, I think the Marlins could listen on are:
Jesus Luzardo. Trevor Rogers. Edward Cabrera. Max Meyer.
The Minor League Fireballer
Max Meyer – SP: ETA 2024 – FV 50 ($21M)
I don’t really consider this to be an option for the Pirates, but I wanted to cover all the bases here. Meyer has a big time arm with some big time potential, so why not him?
He’s coming off Tommy John Surgery and likely won’t be ready to open on the MLB roster. Why could he make sense? The Marlins would likely have to chip in more than just Max Meyer in this deal. Attractive as that might be, it’s just not where GMBC’s mind should be headed.
Outside the box idea? The Pirates use what they get in this deal to make a trade elsewhere, too many moving parts considering that pitchers and catchers report soon. Let’s move on.
The “electric stuff needs control” option
Edward Cabrera-SP-MLB-(SV-hard to gauge)
What makes it hard to gauge? Well, first off, he carries 5 yrs of control. One year of pre-arb and four years of arbitration. Safe to assume he’d be somewhere in the $50-$60M range.
There’s a “but” here.
He just hasn’t been able to stay on the mound. He’s had some injury issues and that carries a bit of a red flag. Still, his stuff is “Charlie Morton” like. Electric and worth gambling on.
The deal-
Bucs get- Avisail Garcia(and $8M) and Edward Cabrera
Marlins get- One of SS/2B Ji Hwan Bae (SV $25M)/Nick Gonzales ($2M)/Jared Triolo (SV $10M), Quinn Priester OR Luis Ortiz
This might be light, sure, but the injury concerns are real with Cabrera. Bae or Triolo would have a surprisingly nice SV due to long-term control. Using 1 WAR per season would have Bae safely in that $20-$25M range. And it’d take a .7 WAR or so per season clip to get Triolo to a $10M SV. I wouldn’t mind the Pirates going a tad deeper here, I’m just not at all sure where I draw that line of comfortable and stupid.
A left handed Option
Trevor Rogers-SP-MLB-(SV $40-45M)
This is one of my favorite options for the Pirates. Trevor is a LHP, controlled for 3 years and, when healthy, he is fantastic. You noticed the “when healthy” note there, huh? Yeah, he too carries some risk, but again he is worth that risk. A nice three pitch mix and a nasty change up.
The deal:
Due to those health risks, I would likely offer the same package as I did for Cabrera. Would I dig a little deeper for either of these starters? Absolutely. But the health risk should have GMBC proceed with caution.
Nobody messes with the Jesus (if you get that reference we are bound to get along)
Jesús Luzardo SP-MLB (SV $68M)
This is THE guy the Bucs should push for. And frankly, I don’t get why the Marlins, a team that should compete, would be looking to move him. But his name has been out there, so here we are.
Luzardo is a hard-throwing, left handed stud with a three pitch mix just now coming into his own. In 2023, his chase rate was in the 77th percentile in all of baseball. His whiff rate? 86th percentile. Time to reach down a little and go get a dude. The SV here is 68-33=35. That price looks nice, but an overpay is still needed.
The Deal:
Bucs get- Avisail Garcia (full contract) and Jesús Luzardo
Marlins get- Liover Pegeuro-2B/SS -MLB (SV-?) Quinn Priester-SP-MLB(SV-?) and Bubba Chandler SP (SV $21M) OR Anthony Solometo-LHSP (SV $21M)
For Luzardo, the Pirates will have to step up and part with Liover Peguero. Is it possible that the Marlins could prefer, say, Jared Triolo? We can dream, but I would think Liover is the guy here. Peggy’s SV is hard to figure considering his control (6 yrs) combined with potential upside. He is ZIPS projected at a WAR of .8 in 128 games for 2024. Being so young, it’s easy to consider growth so using 1.5 WAR per season gets us north of $30-$40M. Control is key here.
Priester still has prospectus status. Some services could still have him as a 50 FV ($21M) but I figure him to be downgraded going into 24. He makes sense for the Marlins as he has options to go with his upside giving the Marlins some much needed depth. It’s also entirely possible Quinn is in the opening day rotation. Either way, I think the Marlins could be interested in him being in a deal.
Giving the Marlins an option on Top 100 Prospects Chandler or Solometo hurts. I get it. Both would carry a 50 FV grade on at least one service(SV $21M) but adding a guy like Jesús Luzardo? You simply have to give to get.
Conclusion-
The Bucs have held this rebuild together with duct tape and super glue. It’s time to make the team better and give the fans something to cheer for. Luzardo is the prize and the one guy they should be hot and bothered over. It makes the opening day rotation better, but more importantly, it makes the second half rotation something to drool over. Lay your eyes on this-
Mitch Keller (RHP)
Jesús Luzardo (LHP)
Paul Skenes (RHP)
Jared Jones (RHP)
Martín Pérez (LHP)
THAT is a World Series worthy rotation! Anyone have Peter Bendix’ phone number?
Steel City Pirates 