Five Pittsburgh Pirates featured in MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list

1-28-24 – Ethan Smith / @mvp_EtHaN 01/28/24

With every new season comes new rankings for baseball’s best prospects, an area Pittsburgh Pirates fans have had to be very familiar with for the past half decade.

MLB Pipeline released their top-100 MLB prospects list on Friday night, with Jim Callis, Johnathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranking the best of the best in the minor leagues.

The ranking system is one I typically use to see risers and fallers in the prospect ranks, and for the Pirates, their representation was felt.

2023 first overall pick Paul Skenes and 2022 fourth overall pick Termarr Johnson each ranked in the top-50, ranking third and 44th respectively.

Three others from the Pirates system were included as well, with the pitching trio of Jared Jones(62nd), Anthony Solometo(82nd) and Bubba Chandler(93rd) rounding the Pirates inclusion in the top-100.

The Pirates were one of five teams to have five or more prospects in the top-100, with fellow NL Central rivals Chicago and Cincinnati being among those five teams.

This is impressive for Pittsburgh, seeing as they had three graduates last season in Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis and Quinn Priester, and they have continually had one of top farms in baseball over the past few seasons.

With all of that said, let’s take a gander at all of these guys, their expectations for 2024, their ETA’s, grades, and more.

RHP Paul Skenes – No. 3 overall prospect

Skenes slotted it at number three overall on the list on Friday night, sitting behind Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio, the latter who I imagine he will have plenty of battles with in the near future.

It comes as no surprise that Skenes is the top ranked pitcher among all prospects with the hype he received coming out of LSU last year, garnering “generational” talent praise while being coined the best pitching prospect to come out of the draft since Stephen Strasberg, and I’d say that pick worked out well for Washington.

For Skenes, it all starts with his fastball, which saw a spike in velocity and production upon his arrival in Baton Rouge from Air Force. It averages out around 98mph and he’s hit 102mph before, so there’s a reason its graded an 80 pitch for him, the highest grade number MLB Pipeline uses.

He also has a lethal slider that grades out at 70/80, with it usually sitting in the upper 80s while eliciting a 62 percent swing and miss percentage in his five starts in the minors last year. It’s his best secondary pitch and one all of you should get familiar with quickly because it’s his best strikeout pitch right now outside of his fastball.

His changeup still could use work, grading out at a 55/80, but its a pitch that already sits at 89-93mph and will only improve with time as he learns to get opposing hitters to chase it.

Folks, Skenes is the real deal. Scouts have said it almost to an endless degree, and its with reason. He has the pitch mix, the build and the swagger of a strong starter in this league.

When four of your five grades are above a 60 on the 20-80 grade scale, that’s not on accident. The biggest question surrounding Skenes is when he’ll debut, and MLB Pipeline believes it will be this season with his ETA slated for 2024.

Sure, Skenes could see big league action this year, but the team also has to see how he adjusts to a full-season schedule for a starter. He’ll likely start in Greensboro or Altoona this year, with AA Altoona more likely, and the evaluation process on him will be fruitful with his potential.

He’ll also be a quick riser no doubt, likely getting plenty of AAA Indianapolis time at the least. Maybe he makes his debut this season, maybe he doesn’t, but the Pirates have the strongest pitching prospect in their system they’ve had since they drafted Gerrit Cole and will utilize him sooner rather than later.

2B Termarr Johnson – No. 44 overall prospect

Arguably my favorite prospect in the entire system, Termarr Johnson slotted in at number 44 overall in the top-100.

Johnson was also ranked the highest second baseman in the prospect pool this year, indicating he’d have a spot in the top-50 as one of the best pure hitters in all of the minor leagues.

That hit tool is why the Pirates selected him fourth overall in 2022, with MLB Pipeline saying:

As the 2022 Draft approached, Johnson emerged as not only one of the best pure hitters in the class, but was perceived to be one of the best high school hitters in recent memory.

MLB Pipeline

That hit tool grades 55/80 right now, mainly due to his insane hand-eye coordination skills and bat speed that offers plus power, even for a player who only stands at 5-foot-8.

Johnson did have a shaky beginning to his first full campaign last year, striking out 35 percent of the time in the first few months, but instead of continuing to struggle, he went on to hit 18 homers while walking over 100 times with a .422 OBP and .860 OPS, so yea, I’d say he did just fine.

He also already has 412, yes 412, at bats under his belt, with 19 homers in that span. His power and bat skills will propel him to the big league level at some point, with his power also sitting at a 55/80 grade right now, with his fielding improving as well.

Johnson was a shortstop in high school, but the Pirates have stuck him at second base, a position I think best suits his defensive skillset and lack of range(something he can’t control due to his build). His fielding grades 55/80 as well, making him a 55 grade overall prospect, a number I think could rise if his success continues.

MLB Pipeline sits his ETA at 2025, which is feasible given his age and talent. There is the off chance he gets an Oneil Cruz like appearance at the very end of the season depending on where the Pirates are as far as the playoffs are concerned, but I wouldn’t expect he gets a full-time call-up this year, even if he does tear it up.

Expect a start in Greensboro for Johnson, a quick call-up to Altoona and a cap off in Indianapolis to end his second, full minor league campaign.

RHP Jared Jones – No 62 overall prospect

If you’ve listened to my podcast, Locked On Pirates, you’ve likely heard me say Jared Jones’ name about 100 times this off-season.

Jones was drafted over slot by the Pirates in the second round in 2020 and has made 66 starts since, becoming one of Pittsburgh most dynamic and consistent pitching prospects since his arrival.

His 4.31 career ERA in 315.0 IP is impressive, and that number came down after he had a minor league career best 3.85 ERA last season between his time in Altoona and Indianapolis while also topping 120-plus innings in the past two campaigns.

His pitch mix is all about power, a calling card he gained from his time in high school and something the Texas Longhorns loved before Pittsburgh pulled him away.

With that said, it should come as no surprise that his fastball is his highest graded pitch at 65/80, averaging out at 96mph last season. It’s a pitch he typically likes to throw up in the zone to miss bats, using his other pitches, which we’ll talk about in a moment, to be more of a command pitcher that works around the zone.

He has three other pitches that he features in his arsenal, a curveball, changeup and slider, all pitches that grade out 50/80 or higher.

He tends to use his slider and curveball as his best secondary pitches, pitches that have helped him post a 10.4 K/9 over the past two seasons. His slider sits in the upper 80s, having good sweeping action while his curveball sits in the lower 80s and has great movement and drop.

The changeup tends to be his fourth pitch, and it’s seen improvements over his minor league career, but it’s a pitch he tends to put a backseat on using in large quantities.

There’s no doubt Jones will continue to have a power archetype when it comes to how he pitches, and with work in Altoona and Indianapolis last year, he’s a call-up candidate this year for sure, with MLB Pipeline pinning a 2024 ETA on him.

If his command and control continue to improve and he performs well this season, expect Jones in black and gold sooner rather than later and look for Jones to be one of the top performers in Spring Training this season as well.

LHP Anthony Solometo – No 82 overall prospect

Ranking third among all left-handed pitching prospects, Anthony Solometo ranks 82nd among all prospects in baseball and that’s not a mistake.

Solometo was drafted in 2021, becoming affordable for the Pirates at 37th due to drafting Henry Davis under slot, and Solometo immediately got eyes on him due to his funky delivery and being penned one of the best left-handed prospects in the 2021 class.

Topping 100 innings for the first time last year, Solometo became a riser in the Pirates system, posting a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP between his time in Greensboro and Altoona.

He’s also grown quite a bit since being drafted, standing 6-foot-5, so he has not only the frame and build of an MLB starter, but the stuff too.

His three pitches and control grades all rank 50/80 or higher, with his fastball and slider ranking the highest along with his control.

Starting with his fastball, it sits around 91-92mph most of the time, but he showcased 95 as a maximum velocity last year, indicating that average velocity could increase with time. It’s also a pitch that tends to rise, which is mainly due to his delivery, and it misses bats quite a bit.

His slider works well in tandem with the fastball, and that’s his usual one-two punch, with the slider working almost like a cutter, and he uses it well to run away from left-handed hitters and in on right-handed hitters.

He tends to use his changeup against righties more often than not, with the pitch sitting around 84mph and being a chase machine.

Solometo has pitched 158 innings in his career thus far, with 51.2 of those coming in Altoona, so there’s still a ton more to see on Solometo, but his career 3.08 ERA leaves plenty to be excited about.

His strides in 2023 were noticed by MLB Pipeline with this ranking:

Solometo made some excellent adjustments during the 2023 season and saw his command and control improve markedly as the year wore on. Because of the deception, his stuff plays up especially against left-handed hitters. Just 21 for all of the 2024 season, he’s poised to make another step forward in his march to becoming at least a mid-rotation big league starter.

MLB Pipeline

As noted there, he’s only 21, but he’s gotten better and better with each start, and if he pans out, which I expect him to with his deceptive delivery and control, the Pirates won’t have to sign veteran lefties every off-season.

Expect Solometo to be a riser in the system again this year, likely starting in Greensboro or Altoona and making Indianapolis his home for most of the campaign. His ETA is 2024 as well, so don’t rule out a small stint at the majors either if Solometo continues to see success.

RHP Bubba Chandler – No 93 overall prospect

The final of the five Pirates represented in the top-100 is Bubba Chandler.

Chandler was a two sport athlete in high school and nearly went to Clemson to play football and baseball, but the Pirates pried him away from Dabo Swinney and Erik Bakich in the third round in 2021.

The Pirates signed Chandler for first round money in the third round that year, again thank you Henry Davis for that, signing him at $3 million.

Questions surrounded Chandler on if he would be a two-way, Ohtani like player for the Pirates, but Pittsburgh was adamant about making him a pitcher in 2023 after he hit and pitched at the lower levels in the previous campaign.

The returns on pitching only weren’t great at the beginning, but he turned it on in the second half of 2023, allowing 2 ER or less in eight of his final 10 starts last year. In nine of those 10 starts, he also went five innings or more, showcasing his potential to be an inning’s machine down the line.

Unlike the other pitchers on this list, I don’t see Chandler making a massive leap to the Majors in 2024, and MLB Pipeline agrees with a 2025 ETA.

Nevertheless, he’s got stuff, and lots of it.

He’s a 55/80 overall prospect, with all of his pitches and control ranking 50/80 or higher.

His fastball is his primary and best pitch, grading 60/80, a pitch that sits mid 90s usually but cant top out at 99. Much like Jones, Chandler uses the fastball to miss bats up in the zone to compliment his other pitches in his arsenal, an arsenal that’s very similar to Jones as well.

He’s AA Altoona debut really showcases his stuff well, striking out eight over five one-hit innings.

As for his other pitches, his slider is and will be his true secondary pitch. It sits in the upper 80s, even hitting 90 last year, and as you see in the video, it runs away from righties with a ton of movement and life.

His curveball has good action as well, having good drop that gets hitters to chase more often than not when placed correctly. He also doesn’t shy away from his changeup either, but of the four pitches, it’s the one that needs the most work for sure.

MLB Pipeline also thinks his time with Skenes will help with his long-term development:

Because of his athleticism, there has always been confidence that Chandler would become a consistent strike-thrower with more reps, and he walked only 2.4 per nine over those last nine starts. The Pirates also think being around Paul Skenes at the end of the year and beyond will only help Chandler learn about how to prepare and reach his considerable ceiling.

MLB Pipeline

From what we’ve seen so far on Chandler, the first round money appears to be worth it with his upside as am athletic strike-thrower. He’s also only 21, so he has plenty of time to bring those secondary pitches up to a 60/80 grade with his fastball.

He’s already a 55/80 overall prospect with two campaigns under his belt, and with potential graduations from Skenes, Jones or Solometo, he could quickly become Pittsburgh’s top pitching prospect in time. He was already Pittsburgh’s 5th ranked prospect from MLB Pipeline last year, and that’s where I would expect him again to begin 2024.

Expect Chandler to be a mainstay in Altoona this year, honing his craft and continuing to throw in the zone, with a call-up to Indianapolis very likely to end the year.

The Pirates getting representation in the top-100 is no joke, these five players have real talent, but with all prospects, they have to see out that upside. Development has been a question for the organization, but with these five guys, even if two hit, it makes the team better, and two hitting is a very likely outcome.

The MLB Pipeline top-100 will of course update throughout the year as always, so keep an eye on names like Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco or Mitch Jebb to potentially make a back-end appearance on the list.

Enjoy these five prospects, watch them grow in the minors and ultimately, root for them and get ready for their debuts, because we will see them this or next season from this talented group.