1-28-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
It’s a slow time of year, so the worries, concerns and questions of the fan base tend to fracture. There’s no universal goings on to debate and comment on, so people’s concerns jump all over the place.
Perfect time to do these things. Let’s Go!
Question 1
Recommendations for a first time fan attending spring training? – DilfMagic on X
The first thing I’ll say is follow my friend Douglas Smith on Facebook and his Pirates Spring Training Insiders Group. He goes every year, has written a couple guides about it and is always happy to geek out about anything you might want to know. I know when I’m beat, and I’m simply never going to touch the amount of knowledge Doug has on this subject. We had him on the Pirates Fan Forum to detail a bunch of his thoughts awhile back. Feel free to give that a listen too. https://megaphone.link/DKPS8912691692
Now, for me, I think the most important part is to make sure you save time for actual baseball. I know this sounds nuts but especially if you go with family, there’s so much to do and see the baseball can find it’s way to the back seat.
Buy tickets in advance, you can get them when you walk up, but as soon as lineups or pitchers being used are announced, you’ll be shocked how fast they fill up, and it’ll help you with my first point.
Lastly, if you’re an autograph hound, have some respect for all the players you’ll run into around town. They’re almost all gracious, but they just want to eat, play, enjoy the beach with their friends and family too. Basically, ask them to do stuff for the fans near the ballpark, not when they’re trying to just unwind.
Have fun!
Question 2
Will there be another big name signed. – Shawn Wheeler
I mean, define “big name”, because to some that would have been Adam Fraizer, and in reality, that’s more of a name you recognize than an actual big name. That’s the first thing I have to say on the subject because to every single fan that answer is going to be different.
I personally don’t think they’ll sign anyone of note, instead I think they’ll trade for what they need.
Question 3
With payroll potentially not accommodating a free agent high rotation guy, is it now more likely we will get another 3/4/5 guy and place faith in getting him to mid-season and have young/recovering guys step
Up? Follow-up Q: Do you think we have enough AAA/AA/A pitching depth for the next couple years? – Douglas Smith
Speak of the Devil, Douglas here is the man when it comes to Spring Training info.
I absolutely think they’ll bring in another pitcher of that level Doug either via trade or signing. I know for a fact they believe Brubaker will return this year, and that they expect him to contribute. I’d hope they don’t expect him to jump right back in where he was, but I do know they expect something, and I know they hope picking up his 3rd year of arbitration makes sense.
Burrows on the other hand, well, I’m sure he’ll debut this year, but you can’t count on him purely because he’s a rookie, let alone the injury recovery.
Now, next couple years? So hard to say. I’ll go this way Doug, they have what I feel are guys who should be on schedule to debut each of the next three years that we have some reasonable expectation “should” be in that class.
Enough and Pitching so very rarely fit together though, so it’s much easier to just say no.
Question 4
Will O’Neil Cruz be one of the biggest bust in Pittsburgh Pirate history? – @pghfan15061 on X
I don’t think so Rob, but since you’ve asked me this twice I believe, I’ll assume you do. Honestly though, it’s already too late for him to be the biggest bust. I can name 5 or 6 guys who were first round picks which absolutely outrank a lottery ticket acquired for a reliever that simply never delivered a damn thing, let alone 17 dingers in his rookie season that lasted only 87 games.
Anyone could fail, but I think you have better bets for what you think will be epically and historically bad.
Question 5
Since the signing of Aroldis there’s been a lot of posts and talk of the bullpen. I hadn’t seen Kyle Nicolas name mentioned. Are the Pirates still planning on using him as a reliever? Has the inability to use the 60 day IL until spring training been an impediment? – Robert Hagelin Jr. on X
Kyle is an enigma. Been a starter but it was a lot to ask with his innings load last year. As far as I know, still considered a starter but I’d imagine not in MLB at the start in any capacity.
Yes, the 60-day thing sucks, I actually wrote about that rule needing amended a month or so ago in 5 thoughts. I can also see how it would be abused so I don’t have an answer for how they should fix the weirdness it causes.
Question 6
What odds would you place on the Pirates making a major trade before spring training? – James Littleton
Kinda like I said to Shawn earlier, define Major. It’s going to be a different answer for everyone at the end of the day.
I think they’ll make a move to fortify their pitching staff though. Will it be “major”? Oh, I doubt it sincerely. We’re probably looking at a guy who slots in the back end of the rotation who hopefully has potential to work his way into more. More importantly, someone who at least has the team control to be a factor next year, or even longer.
That’s the type of deal they need to pull off, not overpaying for someone on the last year of team control, only to face all the same questions again in 2025. I think the team would be best next year if they enter it with 4/5 of their rotation “locked in” at least to the degree you feel they could open the season without a move, even if they should do more anyway.
Question 7
So little has happened outside of Chapman the past month so hard to think of anything interesting tbh. Do you think Hernandez starts the year in Indy? Let’s assume Ro is #5 and Falter is long man in the pen to make it easy. – Adam Yarkovsky on X
I kinda always thought Hernandez had a good shot to start in Indy because he has an option. Now, that was of course before Chapman, and now, yeah, it’s damn near a lock.
The funny thing is, I think that he’s got a good shot of looking better than Borucki, in fact, I’d be shocked if he didn’t. His stuff is way better, but Borucki laid down some crazy and unsustainable stats last season if you ask me.
Quality depth, starting MLB players in AAA, a lot of these concepts are going to be foreign concepts to some Pirates fans, because even in the window last decade they didn’t have that, at least not enough of it.
I’m not going to assume anything like that for the fifth starter or a long man role. Yes, they’re both out of options, but at this stage, clinging to perceived talent or even witnessed talent. If it isn’t there, they won’t be. I believe they’ll cling onto both of them hoping one wins a spot, but if it isn’t happening, I can’t see them holding on hoping games that matter make something out of them.
They show it in Spring or they probably don’t show it here, at least not at the big league level. Bluntly, if Ro looks like he did last year, he’ll clear waivers easily especially with the glut of others being trimmed at the same time and be assigned to the minors. Falter being a lefty, probably has more of a chance to fail upward.
Question 8
2023 The Pirates Flew Outta The Gate with an unbelievable win tally in the month of April. The team looked unstoppable.
Then in May they began to teeter off with struggles to get series wins and wins alone.
With that said, in your opinion, what would the Pirates need to do to stay consistent all year long and not copy the 2023 season and take that next big step! Lets Go Bucs!!!!! – Bobby Castine on X
Did you ever watch Ocean’s Eleven?
Well, the Pirates need a couple miracles just like that crew needed to pull off the heist of a lifetime.
Miracle number 1 – They need Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez to at least be what they’ve been.
Miracle number 2 – They need the starters to stay healthy. This team is a Keller injury away from a season that likely has a very poor outcome for instance.
Miracle number 3 – Henry Davis hits and catches better than we’ve seen, which bluntly neither individually would classify as a miracle, but both together for a virtual rookie, yeah, that might be asking for a bit much.
Truthfully though, that team simply put pitched their asses off early on. Good pitchers looked great. Great pitcher (singular on purpose) looked Cy Young level. They led the league in quality starts and the bullpen was plenty deep to support that kind of starting pitching. As the starters faltered, the bullpen cracks became apparent.
This year, the bullpen is stronger, at least on paper, but the rotation, well, you can’t feel as good as last year, or, can you? Think back to how much confidence you had in Vince Velasquez or Rich Hill? Think back to how much you had in Contreras. Paper is paper, the field is the field.
Question 9
Do you think now that someone like Luis Ortiz has seen the big leagues and gotten his feet wet, do you think he can help more now vs. when the Bucs first brought him up? – Neal Kokiko
This will be Luis Ortiz’ third season he pitches MLB innings, and of course the team should expect him to produce. First off, he did better last year than many want to acknowledge. Started 15 games, pitched in 18 and delivered 86.2 innings of ball with a 4.78 ERA. Way too many walks.
He was an all or nothing outcome pitcher. Strikeout, walk or hit seemed to accompany every at bat. He threw more innings collectively in 2023 with 143.1, a 20 inning jump. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you are also tinkering with your delivery on the side, those innings magnify.
Of all the Pirates kids on the verge, Ortiz to me has the inside track to claim the 5th spot in the rotation and by that I mean the one spot they leave for a kid not his level of ability.
Question 10
How do the fangraphs Cruz projections for ‘24 compare withe the actual stats for SS last year? Projections don’t seem overly optimistic, which is fine, but what might we be looking at?? – Jack Mycka on X
The Pirates had 7 people patrol SS for them in 2023 equaling 25 homeruns, one of which was provided by Cruz himself before being injured.
Fangraphs projects him to hit 25 and hit around .250. Lots of K’s, not lots of BB’s. As you probably know, I don’t really pay much heed to projections, especially for young players who don’t have a long track record. The more track has been laid, the better the projections usually are, because you have history to aggregate them. In fact, Cruz’ projections for 2024 aren’t all that dissimilar from his projections for 2023.
His early returns and admittedly very short sample size in 2023 showed an increased focus on taking his walks and not striking out at a 2:1 clip. Not long enough to effect a prognostication, but long enough to show he was working on improving in the area, and we should potentially expect him to show that again.
The truth is, he’s essentially a rookie as it comes to experience and much like I won’t begin to predict what say Quinn Priester will accomplish in 24, it’s very hard to nail down what Cruz will do. The same exciting potential is there, but we simply have to see him do it.
Question 11
As someone new to baseball, you seem like a good person to ask (even if it does make me look silly). Why are some pitchers purely closers? Why aren’t they in the rotation? I can look elsewhere for more info on all different types of pitching roles. – Edward Bechham
As with most things in baseball, this has changed over time Edward. The “closer” is a relatively new thing. And I say new in relation to the history of this very old game. See the Pirates have had plenty of pitchers finish off games for them, Kent Tekulve, Elroy Face, and on into the guys you probably find more familiar like David Bednar, but back in the days of Face and Tekulve, they’d sometimes be asked to give the club 3 or even 4 innings when the starter ran out of gas. They were more, finishers than closers. They’d also do it 3,4 maybe even 5 times a week.
Starters going 8 or 9 was routine.
Specialization took over in the game, especially in the 80’s. In fact, the stat “saves” didn’t officially start being recorded until 1969.
MLB clubs believe that it takes a special player, with a special mentality to get those “harder to get outs” that finish off a game. The stat gives it more prestige, and that equals more money for guys who have them and are asked to deliver them.
I’ve long been a proponent of preferring they use their best “bullets” against the hardest part of a lineup rather than a specific inning, but it is what it is for now.
Analytics eventually will claim this position if you ask me, so will the arbitration process, but until 90% of everyone stops feeling this is a thing, it’ll be a thing.
If it were soccer, it would be like asking why your best striker is who you want taking a penalty kick. Of course you want your best in the highest pressure situation, and just as obviously, that makes sense, even if the best bet might be whoever has the hot, um, leg that day.
Hope that covers it brother, and I also appreciate you feel comfortable enough to ask me. I’d hope most fans wouldn’t try to make you feel less for trying to learn.
Question 12
As it stands today, looks like Reynolds in left and Suwinski in center. How will right field shape out? Olivares mostly, or a lefty/righty platoon with Palacios? Would like to see Cutch there once or twice a week as well. – Shearod Learn
I can’t even say they’re done Shearod. They probably shouldn’t be. I certainly don’t think either of those names should be a lock. As to Cutch, all I can say is the team and he wanted him to play out there last year. They’ve said the same this year. We’ll just have to wait and see, but I wouldn’t make any assumptions about how it shakes out, I think they’ve set up a true competition here, and they don’t need to be married to any of them.
Question 13
Gary…the rebuilding is over for the pirates….Do you believe we move on from Derek Shelton if we have another bad season? Bc I do, and Andy Haines coming back, I mean he was fired by the Brewers for a reason #LetsGoBucs – Chris Bunnell
First, as much as I agree on Haines, that is quite frankly the dumbest reason to quote. Just about everyone in professional sports has been fired from somewhere along the line, including Clint Hurdle, Chuck Tanner, Danny Murtaugh, all I’m saying is being fired doesn’t promise a guy who must be fired.
Shelton I believe is entering the first year where he has what I’m sure the team will publicly say could/should win. They could be completely full of crap, but it’ll still be said, and expected at least publicly. Ben Cherington won’t go anywhere, he’s done nothing he didn’t sell to Nutting 5 years ago, but Shelton should this team underachieve, or barely achieve, he could be the scapegoat. Now, I don’t think he will be fired, but this is the first year I think it’s a subject that shouldn’t just be dismissed.
It’s also his first real opportunity to show us what he can do with better players.
Yin and Yang, they both live together at all times, and baseball shows that on a daily basis.
Question 14
Since logically, they don’t contended this year….. what do you see as the rotation at year end heading into 25?…. Thank you – LegLock22 on X
I can’t even tell you how the starting rotation enters opening week looking like. Keller, Perez, and Gonzales of course but after that, unless they do something, kids. Like, what if they trade for a guy they have 2 years of control of?
What I think they’d like, is for Ortiz, Priester, Ro, Burrows, Jones, Skenes to all make a case and along with Brubaker form the 2025 rotation with Keller. Will that happen, by god if I knew, I’d have money somewhere on it brother.
Question 15
Do you think the Bucs still believe in Nick Gonzalez or are they hoping his stock goes up for future trade value – Kyle Steiner on X
I can honestly say, teams don’t “hope for trade value”, they hope for contributions to the team’s cause. Sometimes that manifests itself in trade value, sometimes it manifests itself in someone else being traded.
Do they believe in Nick, I mean brother he’s only had 100 MLB at bats, and while it was pretty abysmal, that’s not enough to know anything really. In fact, all they’ve really learned is his bad tendencies in the minors were exposed at the MLB level in a very small sample size.
If they have formed a final decision on Nick, I’d suggest they won’t have much success developing a team internally, that takes patience, guidance and more than anything time.
Question 16
With Chapman here, the plan is to rely on the pen and shorten games. But what about the first 5 innings or so? Do you see the Pirates using a traditional SP there or more of the opener/short stint stuff, even if the talent pool is (presumably) better? – Nick Cammuso
I think that was kinda how they were shaping up anyway. I felt this bullpen was strong, and thought they’d have to lean on it before they strengthened it. Now I think they have created an opportunity where they could deal from strength to improve themselves at another spot, not necessarily before the season even. They could flip Chapman for a nice piece, even one that helps right now at the deadline. Maybe Holderman becomes expendable, who knows.
One thing I know isn’t really in the card is a Bednar deal. I know how dumb they have been, I know how little everyone trusts the brain trust here, but this one isn’t happening, not this year.
Now, will they use a split approach or opener or whatever nonsense, I can’t say no, they just did last year and have again said it remains something they might employ.
Honestly though, just from the very limited conversations I’ve had with anyone who might know, feels to me like while they’re willing to employ alternate methods to get innings, they’d much prefer to have starters start and give them quality starts more often than not.
Look at the beginning of last season. They can’t have planned to lead the league in quality starts for the first month, yet there they were, eating up and enjoying every single one of them. The alternate stuff came in when they had to, not because they wanted to outsmart the league.
Question 17
The optimist question. What do you do next year if Henry hits and does at least average as catcher. Where are you when Endy comes back? – Scott Nelson
I think this dream scenario has been talked about from the moment it became apparent both would make the league. If Henry wins the gig, and Endy comes back next year ready to step back in, I expect them to compete. In an ideal world, one would be the starter, the other would be the “backup” but both could play other spots if need be. On the surface, that looks like an easier task for Endy.
Either way, as we sit here right now, one of them has caught at an MLB level, neither has hit at an MLB level. Endy has some things to prove too is the point, it’s not like he laid down tape that says F whatever you did in 2024, Here’s Endy!
He’ll have to earn his spot back, and that’s as real as I can get, even if it’s completely unfair to the kid.
Question 18
It seems like the 2 potential trade partners for the pirates, for young controllable starting pitchers are the mariners and marlins. Do you see or heard any news of a potential trade happening with them? Or is thier another team that could be a trade partner? I know some free agent dominoes haven’t fallen yet (Snell and Montgomery), along with the potential of Cease of being dealt. – Billy Tissue
No, and you won’t hear anything credible unless it’s right on the cusp. You need two ingredients for trade rumors to leak. 1. A team that needs to build up a market for a player they want to trade (Cease being a great example), and 2. A GM trying to save face. A move needs made to help them improve and he or she decides to make sure someone knew how crazy another team was in their request.
Bottom line, if you hear a rumor and one of those two things isn’t involved, it’s probably crap. The Dodgers are a good match, they have a ton of pitching and probably a few they could move on from. The Royals are interesting, their rotation has been built upon and their system stinks so they could use some prospects.
I also don’t believe the White Sox want to move Cease at the moment. Just seeing how crazy they could get some exec to get. Probably laid a lot of groundwork for the deadline.
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