1-29-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
This time of year can be tough as a sports fan. The NFL is gone for a couple weeks before one last big show. The NHL is on their All Star hiatus for ten days. The MLB hot stove is more like a hot plate run from a cigarette lighter plug in an old Datsun. We don’t even have an NBA team here so at least for me, I don’t care what they have going on. College basketball anyone?
Let’s do this….
1. But There’s No Room For….
Pirates fans are facing something they haven’t dealt with since 2013, a system with talent near the top of MLB Pipeline and a MLB club that is already largely populated with Major League players. Back in 2013 the Pirates Top 10 prospects were, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Alan Hanson, Gregory Polanco, Luis Heredia, Barrett Barnes, Josh Bell, Nick Kingham, Dilson Herrera, and Wyatt Mathisen.
Some of those names you heard of, some even contributed in a big way to the Pirates competitive window that began that very year. Just as true, some of those names fell flat on their face, got traded, or underwhelmed here.
It’s an important lesson. There wasn’t a single member of this list below a 40SV rating, and the Pirates current top ten is just as full of potential regulars and stars.
Some of you probably even remember whining that Clint Barmes was taking at bats on a team with Jordy Mercer who also wasn’t the “star” we wanted and “blocking” Alan Hanson, who was the heir apparent at short at least in our minds. How were we holding back that generation’s phenom Gregory Polanco? Josh Bell was a outfielder, nobody had even suggested first base yet.
Point is, when it came time, there was of course room. And there will be again.
It’s natural for fans to look at a system or group of players stacked at a position and say, well, there’s no way there’s room for all these guys. That’s probably true, but if you don’t like something in baseball, wait ten minutes, it’ll change. Some of this current group won’t make it. Some of them will take this core and expand it to become part of the group that pushes this thing to new heights.
Looking at the prospect lists now needs to shift to focusing on who can or might help this year, and of course you care about the overall health, or that there is a really good looking kid in High A, but the focus has to change now because as of right now we’re no longer waiting for the savior, we’re looking for reinforcements.
Way back when we started this journey together in 2020 I told everyone they’d have to become more comfortable with good players eventually being supplanted. Well, we’re finally here, and that sort of thing will happen almost yearly for the next half decade or so.
Just remember, it far surpasses the alternative as far as fan experience goes.
2. Pittsburgher of the Year
Andrew McCutchen was recently bestowed that title by Pittsburgh Magazine.
It’s a wonderfully written story, I hope you actually take some time and read it.
I thought to myself, have I ever really sat back and thought fully about how rare it is a man like Andrew McCutchen comes along? I mean, players don’t just show up everywhere and become not only fixtures on your team, but also your community. Especially after the convenience of playing here is taken away.
We’ve been blessed here in Pittsburgh in this regard. Mario Lemieux was a huge French-Canadian kid who didn’t speak a lick of English when he was drafted, and now he’s a Pittsburgher through and through and undeniably saved his franchise from relocating.
Cam Heyward has roots here planted by his father Craig “Iron Head” Heyward, but none of that forced Cam to become the fixture of community excellence he’s become in Pittsburgh.
Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, they all have played here, won a lot and more than anything became part of our city.
Andrew, well, he did it in the hardest sport in North America to do so. In fact, he survived being traded from the Pirates and still called Pittsburgh home. His kids are Pittsburghers, his wife is a Pittsburgher and if you’ve ever run into him casually shopping at Market District, he’s so one of us there’s almost an understanding that seeing him there just isn’t all that special, let the man get his apples n’at.
Back in 2012, I ran into Cutch downtown just walking down the sidewalk. I had my kids with me and they both had their shirts on from the ballgame a few nights earlier they’d gotten
He’s a brilliant man, truly. Gifted as an artist. Quick witted and charming. Hell of a ballplayer too of course, but Andrew is never going to be defined as any one thing. Well, except maybe one of our very best adopted citizens, and the pride with which he represents us now is something none of us could possibly appreciate enough.
I could see Cutch doing 150 different things after he retires, he’d be good at anything he wanted to accomplish, but no matter what he chooses to do, I feel fairly certain, he’ll choose to keep home base right here, in his new home town.
We’re a better city for it, and him.
3. Five Predictions Before Opening Day
- Mitch Keller Sharpened – Last season Mitch threw variations of 7 different pitches, some redundant, some actually worked against the effectiveness of others and he somehow still was one of the best starters in the National League. I’m hearing Mitch is working on paring down that offering, or at the very least, trying to create more separation between similar offerings.
- Henry Handles the Backstop – This story has been the hotness all offseason, especially after Endy went down to UCL surgery, but behind the scenes, Henry Davis has been spending a ton of time working on his craft. Here’s my prediction, 10 days into Spring Training, the narrative is going to change to the Pirates simply not recognizing how good he was. He’s going to do more than ok back there.
- Jack Will Expand his Zone – I think it will potentially cut down on his strikeouts looking, and add to his strikeouts swinging, but it’ll also add to his damage path. Jack is the type who will improve as long as he’s physically able on an area of concern over off seasons, and this is his focus this time. I won’t bet against him.
- Jared Jones will Stand Out – Don’t get me wrong, he’ll be one of the first cuts thanks to MLB rules about service time due to injury, most players who aren’t on the 40-man will, but his stuff is going to blow away a lot of fans who haven’t seen him for an extended period of time.
- Second Base will Clear Up – At least for now. I don’t want to pick winners and losers before the competition has taken place, but I think it’s hard to deny, Liover Peguero is probably entering this race in the pole position, and I don’t see him losing enough steam, or anyone else creating enough to push him aside. At least to start the season.
4. How Much Leash Does Shelton Have?
I don’t think it’s necessarily make or break for Derek Shelton this year, but I think we fans will end 2024 either feeling better about him as the skipper or building a bonfire under his seat.
Oh, I know, a whole lot of you have long since decided he wasn’t the right guy, I get it. I’d also add in here, 99% of what you’ve made that decision based on is exactly what Ben Cherington wants in a manager. What I’m saying here is, even if and when they fire him, you’re going to get Sherick Delton, a young hot shot with an analytics background who focuses on a player centric approach. I probably just saved them time on their Indeed post. And no, it doesn’t matter if he’s actually done those things in your mind, just the GM’s.
His decisions are analytic driven, and guess what the GM wants. His player usage is founded in the NBA spawned load management player rest philosophy. Again though, exactly what his GM wants. The Atlanta Braves for instance are the ONE team in the league that has completely abandoned this thought process.
See, it’s really hard to claim a guy is doing a crappy job if he’s doing exactly what you tell him to do and on top of that, nobody is blind, they know they haven’t given him enough talent to win yet.
This year, the communication from the team including Shelton himself is very much so, they expect, plan and want to win in 2024. Right or wrong, when you speak it, you can’t escape it.
If this year were a complete disaster, say a regression from last year’s win total without a glut of high impact injuries to high impact players, let’s just say, Cherington isn’t getting fired but someone will, and likely it’d be his entire staff on the same flight out of town.
I can tell you last year was largely seen as an overachievement internally based on their own projections, so if you expect anyone at 115 Federal is ready to start flipping tables and kicking people out the door, first know they aren’t remotely close to where you want them to be.
This isn’t about right or wrong, this is simply about honesty. Shelton is seen as a partner in this rebuild. A guy charged with taking the seeds, and dirty looks from you, planting them, growing them and ultimately deploying them, but everything these players do short of forecasting when they’ll be injured is scripted. They know the innings counts they want. They know the number of at bats they would prefer everyone get. They know how much rest they want each player to have, and when. They know all the injuries being nursed.
More than anything, they know that Shelton has this room, and that might be the only thing he’s done that’s fair game for judging before this season starts off. It’s just about the only thing he could have overtly failed on that didn’t depend on talent.
I’d be shocked if firing him was taken even half way seriously before the end of 2025, but I can’t say the same for his assistants. Much like I outlined the scapegoat trail from Cherington to Shelton, well, Marin and Haines will hit the firing squad long before Shelton too, again, unless its historically bad and not injury driven.
5. Let’s End on a Crazy Thought
This team has the potential to be offensively dominant. I say that, not forgetting that Andy Haines is the hitting coach.
I look at a lineup with Jack, Reynolds, Peguero, Cruz, Hayes, Cutch, Davis as the features and it’s really hard to think your way around them not being successful as an offensive force. Sure there are what ifs baked in, sure it’s optimistic with guys like Davis and Peggy, but it’s also not entirely dismissible either.
They have 3 or 4 guys who could pop off for 30 homeruns.
They have 3 or 4 guys who are almost locks to finish with OPS north of .750.
They have speed, power, tremendous eyes at the dish and honestly, it’s pretty evenly spread throughout. It really has a dynamic potential to produce.
Obviously the biggest position fans have to be concerned about is the starting rotation, and that’s been the case all season long, and will remain so until they upgrade it or prove us wrong, but this offense, it’s a lot closer to reaching the heights this executive team has aimed for than it’s not.
I don’t think it’s enough to win a bunch without the pitching taking a jump, but I do think they won’t be fun to pitch to, and there should be a lot more baseballs that wind up floating in the river this Summer.
From purely an offensive perspective, I’m quite pleased with the progress, at least on paper.
Steel City Pirates 