1-31-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
The “glut” of middle infielders the Pirates have, has been seen almost universally as a position they could easily and even painlessly deal from in an effort to fill a hole elsewhere.
The most popular alignment tends to be a starting pitcher with control in exchange for at least in part one of that “glut”.
It makes sense, you can certainly see why almost everyone lands there when discussing this stuff, the problem comes when fans don’t consider every factor and miss the most important one of all, the intention and goals of the team on the other end.
When looking for a trade partner, you need a few things. First being a player that fills a need on your roster. Second, do you have a player or players you could part with, that doesn’t hurt your goal, at least this year.
Find those two things, and ok, maybe you have something there right?
Maybe. But what about the third factor? Do the players you can part with that don’t hurt your current team help your counterpart in the way they want helped?
Rumors fly this time of year, and the more desperate your fan base, the more rumors tend to come up.
An example that’s cropped up a ton this year is the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates coming together on a deal. They have a bunch of pitching at the MLB level or ready to be, much of it has a ton of control.
To make this deal work, you start as we discussed by examining their roster and identifying do they have a player available, or more accurately, potentially available that would help you achieve the goal of fortifying the Pirates Starting Rotation, preferably with someone who slots in somewhere right below if not shoulder to shoulder with Keller.
Check.
The Marlins are reportedly in need of middle infield help, specifically short stop. They’ve also been interested in outfield help. So is this a fit on the surface with the Pirates having all those middle infielders?
Yup, Check.
Now for that pesky third part, does it help the counterpart? In this case the Miami Marlins. They have a starting rotation that you could proudly put up against any in the league and feel pretty good about it. That automatically makes them a team in the conversation for the NL East, even with the Phillies, Braves and Mets. The Marlins can pitch well enough to compete with all of them, if they could even get above average offense.
So, can the Pirates offer a middle infielder or outfielder that the Marlins would feel is not only a good return, but can and in fact is expected to step right in for the 2024 season and help them improve their offense? One they can afford to lose, meaning of course they could offer Oneil Cruz or Bryan Reynolds, or even Jack Suwinski, but c’mon, they really can’t do that right?
So, Check? I’d suggest no.
I don’t see a team like Miami feeling that Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Ji-hwan Bae, Jared Triolo, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Conner Joe, Joshua Palacios, or anyone else you can think of in the system and ready to contribute at the Big League level even in theory, being enough. Maybe in part. Maybe in an effort to sweeten a deal, but the big piece that makes this a sensible deal for both sides right now, when both teams supposedly want to win right now, I don’t see it.
Let’s think even further, using this example.
OK, so we don’t think we have what Miami needs for right now. At least I don’t, based on the little bit of work we just put in here taking a look at the situation. Maybe you’re still with me, maybe you aren’t, either way, let’s follow the train of thought.
Maybe we can give Miami something they want instead of need?
Top end prospects regardless of position can sometimes be that kind of almost irresistible, sexy object you can dangle and even though it doesn’t help them this year, there’s still a chance they’re interested because at the end of the day, they have more starters than they can use and it’s still a high value return.
Also, it’s not like Miami is going to spend like the Mets, Phillies or Braves, so prospects are always going to have to be part of their recipe. Chances are, they aren’t looking for another starting pitching prospect close to the league, but you won’t find many teams regardless who are going to turn their nose up at an MLB Top 100 type like Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, or Anthony Solometo, but the Pirates while deep in this area, the MLB club is light, which should tell you even though it looks like 7 of the Pirates top 10 are pitchers, this club needs those prospects to help their own cause. Some as early as this year.
Probably not the best fit there.
Termarr Johnson would likely get their interest, but if you deal him, you better feel pretty damn great about Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, or whoever else from that list you want to choose. Mitch Jebb is too far away to even be in this conversation I’d imagine.
I have looked at this deal, or more accurately, potential fit for a deal in just about every way you could approach it, and no matter what, I just can’t make it work in my head. I can find you equal value deals, I can find you deals that would be accepted on The Show 100% of the time, but I can’t translate that into the real world and buy what I’m selling. I can’t even take from the Pirates bullpen that is simply shaping up to be wicked and make it work.
For instance, why would they take David Bednar (relax, he’s just our best MLB chip if we got nuts) as a big part of a package for Edward Cabrera, a starter, but also a guy who many believe could easily be the club’s closer should he be pushed out of the rotation.
The last thing I could suggest would be potentially seeing if they might be interested in moving one of their high ceiling, returning starting pitcher options like Sixto Sanchez or Max Meyer. Sixto has no options, is likely to start 2024 in the Marlins bullpen should nothing change with their mix and his shoulder is finally right, he’s only thrown a grand total of 1 minor league inning in the past 3 years.
Meyer pitched 6 innings for the Marlins back in 2022 before he tore his UCL, and he’s expected to return this Spring, currently ranked as their #3 prospect, along with his full compliment of MLB options. Meaning, this 24 year old, top prospect with rookie status intact and all his options can take his time working his way back in the minors and hopefully fulfill his top of the rotation profile. That said, his injury burned up over a year of his service time and his injury recovery threatens to at least limit his year 2. Essentially, this is a guy who likely is going to spend his year 2 as a rookie, who is working his way back from UCL surgery, so we aren’t talking more than maybe 120 MLB innings in a perfect world in 2024, but potentially a top of the rotation arm for 5 years, dirt cheap. High risk, high reward, but if the price is right, a bet I’d place because if it hits, wow.
I could argue neither of these pitchers is a lock to help the Pirates this year, thing is, Miami couldn’t really protest, they themselves aren’t “counting” on them in 2024, but the Pirates could potentially find a more affordable deal here that helps the talent level near the league or flat out in the league. I could also suggest Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, and Roansy Contreras all have a similar chance of working out, so either of these acquisitions would sort of just be adding to this mix. Maybe with a tad more pedigree on Meyer, but not a lot more.
It would be a risk to acquire either of those pitchers, and hopefully that would be reflected in the asking price. For instance, you might be able to leverage that risk into the Marlins taking one too, perhaps a lower level starter with big time upside in exchange or even offensive talent a bit farther away with a middle infield flyer type such as Bae tossed in to make it work. Risk for both, potential answers for 2024 for both, nothing negative for the 2024 product for either side. The Marlins are also planning to stretch left handed reliever A.J. Puk into a starter this Spring, which could add his name to potential trade candidate or give them room to deal from deeper into their depth than they planned.
This is just one match, with one team. I wrote all this to try to illustrate just how much deeper these things go than reading a report that a team wants THIS, and they have THIS to offer. It’s so much more than that, and I could do this for just about any potential match you toss my way. So could you if you think through all these factors.
Some will work easily, some I have to work through all of it and find something that might help like we just did for Miami, others are flat out not a good match in any way.
None of this takes into account a fourth factor that we simply can’t possibly estimate with any accuracy, and that’s the desperation tolerance of a General Manager. Some GM’s simply won’t allow desperation to inform their decisions. In other words, they’d rather go hungry than eat something they don’t like. Some GM’s love making deals and overspending to them is really all in your head. So long as they get what they need or want for right now, there’s no such thing, or their list of “insane” is really short. Mostly though, they’re all a reflection of their owner, if they’re risk adverse, chances are a trade will almost always on paper look dead even, or it just isn’t done.
Miami will trade from their depth here, but something tells me they’ll deal with someone who’s a bit more willing to assume risk than the Pirates.
Steel City Pirates 