02/07/24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X
Among the many questions surrounding the Pittsburgh Pirates entering 2024, the Pirates bullpen seems to be the group that has the least to answer.
Last season, we saw a bullpen that took noticeable strides and steps forward to become a unit that could be trusted, especially after the Pirates rotation practically fell apart outside of Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo.
This off-season, Pittsburgh took it upon themselves to further bolster the bullpen, adding longtime reliever Aroldis Chapman to the roster just a few weeks ago, a move that saw mixed reactions initially, even from me, but through further digging and examination, I find it near impossible to hate that move now, especially as it pertains to this bullpen, its ceiling and just how good it could truly be.
If you listen to my podcast, Locked On Pirates, this week, you’d notice I had two complete shows on the bullpen, one highlighting Colin Holderman, Chapman and David Bednar, the other highlighting the complimentary pieces that will make the engine run.
On each of those shows, I really dug into the ceiling this group can have, because folks, it is a strong unit on paper.
Chapman has and will likely be the only true addition to the bullpen regularly, and yes, I know they got Wily Peralta, but thats no more than a depth option at best, so the bullpen you saw last season will be relatively unchanged.
The group of players I feel most comfortable mentioning as key contributors to the bullpen might be longer than some other’s thoughts, as I have high confidence in Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta, Ryan Borucki and Jose Hernandez to be options you don’t cringe at when they run out to the mound.
I think when discussing the bullpen, it’s important to start from the bottom down, seeing as I am making a pretty big statement saying this could be a top unit in baseball, but let’s go from the bottom to the top, and you’ll quickly see why I feel this way.
If you’re keeping track, I have already mentioned seven, yes seven, options I would feel comfortable putting in the game day-in and day-out.
Jose Hernandez was one of them, and although his 2023 campaign wasn’t spectacular, it was still a season that saw him show flashes, especially in his first full season at the big leagues.
Hernandez pitched 50.2 IP last year and left 2023 with a 4.97 ERA and 62 strikeouts. Again, not the sexiest statistics, but statistics that at least give cause for optimism moving forward. If he can bring his 9.9 walk rate down and keep his strikeout rate around his 27.8 mark from last year, he’ll be just fine.
Now, why did I mention Hernandez first? Well, of the names I have mentioned, can you say is he better than any of them confidently, because I cannot, but if you’re telling me Hernandez is your seventh best relief option and sporting numbers like that, folks that is a very, very good thing.
Borucki, Moreta and Mlodzinski were strong in their own ways as well, but the whole picture of my belief that this be a top unit in baseball, at least on paper, can be described in the simplest pitching statistic out there, ERA.
Last season, the New York Yankees bullpen led all of baseball in ERA with a 3.34 mark, while the Pirates had a 4.27 ERA from their group last season.
When taking Bednar, Chapman, Holderman, Moreta, Mlodzinski, Borucki and Hernandez’s ERA together and averaging them out, that number, and I fact checked this four times, came out to a 3.19 ERA, a 0.15 difference between MLB’s best bullpen last year and a large difference from Pittsburgh’s ERA number from the entire group last year.
Take that in for a second, a 3.19 ERA combined between seven relievers. That is an elite tally, a tally that doesn’t even include the multitude of other bullpen options the Pirates could have from Hunter Stratton, Kyle Nicholas, NRIs and other minor leaguers.
Now, you may be asking yourself, can we as fans really expect all seven of these guys to perform to or above their 2023 level? The simple answer is no, but, the Pirates have created a unit that has room for regression.
Say for instance that Hernandez and Moreta take steps back, that still leaves you with five, strong relief options that you have confidence in.
Which again, doesn’t take into account if another reliever that isn’t even on our radars right now takes flight and makes an impact quickly in the minors and eventually the big league roster, which is entirely possible, especially if they add to the rotation and want looks at some of these young starters.
I doubt anyone who watches baseball would argue that you can have too many options in a bullpen, and right now, Pittsburgh has seven I have confidence in and others who could gain my confidence if play dictates, wherever that may be in the system.
So, can the Pirates have a top bullpen unit in all of baseball? Yes, they most definitely can, and I think there is a higher likelihood of it being a top-10 unit then being near the bottom, a place we’ve seen that group be in for most of the time since Mark Melancon, Jason Grilli and Tony Watson.
Now, injuries, rest and many other factors will play into just how good this bullpen can be, but the ceiling is high and so is the floor, and the Pirates have built a unit that should be able to withstand what baseball will throw at them.
On paper is always different than what we see play out on the field, hence why they play the games, but this a group that all of you should expect to be Pittsburgh’s best, and be one of the bigger reasons why they potentially compete this season, something the front office has told you all they want to do.
Steel City Pirates 