2-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
The anticipation for me is firing on all cylinders right now.
Seeing pictures from the early arriving journalists and fans who already showed up just to catch a glimpse of someone through some chain link fencing.
Reporters excitedly reporting that David Bednar and Mitch Keller are playing catch…it’s all so silly, but it’s all so awesome too.
I’m not ready to make predictions yet, in fact, I don’t even think they’ve finished forming the roster, I’ll let Spring play out before I go there like every year but I have a few thoughts I wanted to get out there before we get this thing started.
There’s More Good Than Bad
It’s been a very negative offseason, really has. Underwhelming in many ways. Oversold in even more by management, but drastically over swung to the dark side, mostly by people who set expectations not for how the team would do this year, but more so a vision of exactly what that would take.
Anything less was toxic goo.
Don’t get me wrong, everyone is free to feel whatever they want, that’s quite literally what I hope everyone who reads my stuff is doing, hopefully thinking through things form all angles with me and forming whatever opinion they want.
You and I agreeing, not part of the equation. I’ll give you my opinion, but taking it, agreeing with it, wanting to punch me in the face, hey, that’s all your choice.
So, I’m going to give you my honest opinion here.
I think we’ve taken this team’s words about attacking the free agent market or shopping in a different aisle, rightfully gotten pissed as we saw them not attack or shop even to the level they did last year. And in all that, we’ve forgotten that, they’re also adding to a much stronger team than they were entering 2023.
We entered last season with a weak rotation. Think back, Anchored by Mitch Keller who about half of us believed in, Roansy Contreras, just about the only one who didn’t get questioned as to whether he was going to be a good starter or not.
Brubaker who they of course lost before first pitch. Rich Hill who most of us thought should have been fishing. Vince Velazquez who 90% of you would take back as a terrific acquisition even as he recovers from UCL surgery, and Johan Oviedo, as a last resort and shot on an unproven kid.
Go ahead and walk through this year’s and tell me it doesn’t sound similar.
Keller is now in the Roansy role, as unquestionably the best of the bunch. Gonzales is a lot like Vince, you don’t expect much, but ok, why not. Martin Perez is easily as good as Rich Hill, and I’d argue far superior. Roansy had an awful year, but he’s still here and still an option. Ortiz, Priester, Falter, and again, I still think we’ll see another.
I have this plus a bullpen I think is easily twice as good as the one they started 2023 with as collectively a tick above where they were on the mound to open last year.
Offensively, a whole bunch of kids who have to win, Cruz coming back, it’s frustrating they didn’t get themselves more of a sure thing at first base, but offensively I really like where this team is.
All in all, I guess what I’m saying is, I’m not ready to call out a record, but as I sit here the night before a reportable throw has been made, I certainly don’t feel worse than I did entering 2023, Arrow up in my mind.
I’d certainly like to feel better than that. A good starter could really improve the outlook for me and a bunch of other people. But it’s not a mitigated disaster, even on paper to me anyway.
A real pitcher, even a back of the rotation arm raises this thing for me, and I really hope they do it.
Remember, Their Bigger Stated Goal
This isn’t a World Series contender, that shouldn’t mean it can’t be fun.
It’s important to remember the larger goal this team has and Ben Cherington set it all the way back in 2019, to build a sustainable winner.
That’s key. It’s also incredibly hard to do, and bluntly, has yet to work in this league, so long as you consider winning it all as working. I’ve always been suspect that he could do it, not him personally, but more, would it work in this market, and quite frankly, I already think he’s made some moves that make this hard to envision as their path.
Regardless, it is their goal, and to that end, I’d like to just point out prospect hugging is often part of that for GM’s who think they have the ability to play the Rays for dress up.
Honestly, I’m not sure they’re deep enough to 100% jump in that world myself. For instance, I can’t trade Termarr Johnson until I’m sure I have a second baseman. And I mean sure.
I can’t trade Bubba Chandler when my hit rate on successful starting pitchers being developed is lower than Austin Hedges’ Average.
I guess what I’m saying is, I’m ok with not moving any big name prospect, I’m not sure they know where all the holes are yet.
Proving Grounds
Some guys have to prove what they are this year, it’s really that simple. Much like Thanos, this was inevitable.
There is no way to anything meaningful for this franchise that doesn’t roll through having kids turn into baseball players. And there’s no amount of AAA time that makes it a seamless transition.
That doesn’t come without pain. It comes with highs too. Sometimes you get a Corbin Carroll, other times you get Spencer Torkelson. Most of the time you get a little of both and a lot of the time it takes a couple years to fully know where they wind up.
Take Jack Suwinski, here’s a guy who got called up from AA, had one skill set, he could hit long homeruns, on a very small zone of pitches and the league took a while to catch on. Last year he added plate discipline and probably took it a touch too far. His damage zone got a little bigger, but his scouting book got far larger.
Now he embarks on his 3rd season, hoping to make more adjustments, hoping for a season that really takes him from an interesting kid who’s hit a bunch of homeruns quickly and into a player fans and teammates consider part of the core.
That’s what this process is.
They have a ton of guys entering year two of that process in 2023, and some of it is going to hurt, some of it is going to make you wonder why it isn’t that easy for everyone.
I know they could go and spend a bunch of money, and probably give you a playoff team this year, I think they might anyway, but they could certainly make you feel better about the prospect. I also think they really can’t avoid this stuff one way or another.
The single most important thing that happens in 2024 is that this process plays out for a bunch of guys, because if we feel they need 5-6 free agents entering 2025, they truly won’t be any closer.
Internal growth right or wrong is where a winner will come from, if it does.
Embrace that it isn’t always going to be pretty, and remember if they’re patient, it just might wind up looking a lot better.
I’m rooting for a 2024 that leaves me feeling 2025 the playoffs aren’t some hope, but an expectation.
Now, let’s get started boys and girls.
Steel City Pirates 
I really believe that more will happen, the offseason isn’t complete and that we are not a pitcher or 2 away from what will be on the roster come the end of March.
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