2-19-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
This Saturday at 1:05 PM, I’ll be in another world. Oh, I’ll still be in Pittsburgh, but when I put in my headphones and tune in the Pirates vs the Twins for the first game of the Grapefruit League schedule, I’ll be right there and I probably won’t miss more than a handful of innings this team plays for the next seven and a half months unless they make it last longer lord willing.
I’ll still find opportunity to watch some MiLB games in that stretch too, you just have to, and a lot of this team’s story is still to be written and it starts down there.
Somewhere along the line, I’ll have to watch some other teams play, especially if they have a player I’m interested in who’s a pending free agent or potentially someone who could be dealt for. It’s always good to keep up on the competition, so I’ll watch a bunch of NL Central games, and I’ll probably read a bunch about their systems because it really matters as all these teams come up together.
Oh then there’s the draft, so I’ll have to watch some college baseball, like it’s some kind of chore right? The Pirates picking lower means a bit more work in a weird way, because the range of who the pick could be is wider, and this year I don’t have Craig to handle this all on his own and just live off his info to beef myself up on these guys.
There’s a lot that goes on here to red up for the season. A ton of track to lay, milestones you know you have to pass. Cut down deadline days, split squad days, murky injury and usage reports, slow transaction page updates, bro, its not as easy as hating Bob Nutting and startin’ a blog. LOL
Every season is a challenge, a passion project for me, and this site now entering it’s 5th season albeit rebranded, remains 100% free. The writers here, write because they want to cover a baseball team and be fair while doing it. They make nothing but a more informed fan base for their work, so in advance, let me quickly use this space to thank everyone who will contribute to this site as we cover 2024 together. I’ll have some coverage plan news soon as we map out our thoughts.
Play Ball!
And I’m feeling musical today so song titles as titles today! Have a crack at telling me the bands, if it’s a remake song, original or remake artist is fine. Yes some are easy unless you’re like 17.
1. Start Me Up…
The message all offseason has been that the Pirates rotation is the biggest priority by a country mile on this team. The GM has said that, the coach has said that, hell, even though it was socially awkward like everything he does, Bob Nutting said as much.
Most people have called this out as the main area of addition from fans to actual team insiders.
Yet, the Pirates have only brought in 2, Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez. Both are a bit older veterans, both coming off down years or stretches of bad. Both have good track records if you look past the recent performance.
This was the priority even back when the team and fans had every expectation they were returning Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo.
I say all this not because any one fact there is something that somehow eluded you as the offseason has played out, but more to say, as a baseline, I think everyone has been on the same page on this front the entire time.
Now, think about how often that happens in Sports. How often all the fans, all the pundits, all the executives, writers, coaches, other players even seem to mention, notice, point to, a need to add to the starting pitching at the MLB level this year.
Not very right? And when those conditions exist, it’s also very rare to see those things not get addressed.
I know, I know maybe the Pirates think Gonzales and Perez were all they needed, look at this guy and that guy… Yeah, I get it. Thing is though, the team has still, as of last week, not stopped saying they’d like to add.
Truthfully, Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez and two of Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, Falter, for a little while might be ok, so long as you feel really good Skenes, Jones, Ashcraft types will take a jump and get here. It’s not that bad if you feel Brubaker will come back and be what he looked like.
And that Flex Seal tape you put on your roof last year instead of getting roof work done might hold too.
It might hold, but I wouldn’t try to sell it as a fixed roof either. That’s where I am. The rotation will fill out, regardless of whether they add more in or not, but let’s just say, if they want to sell it as fixed, I’m going to need some demonstrations, and that my friends will begin in a week.
They may change their minds and ultimately think they have enough. For all we know, they got eyes on Roansy and thought, ok, well boys he’s back, we don’t need to be thinking he’s a DFA candidate. Perhaps Ortiz showed up having put in more work this offseason and the team is drooling at the possibility of having him in the rotation. Maybe Quinn bulked up, is throwing hard and looking July locked in as we live through February.
All of that could be, but the team would have to come out and say it to have fans start believing they chose to not get another, as opposed to believing they missed on another because they wouldn’t pay up, and I mean that on both the free agent and trade markets.
I take you back to last Spring, where most of us felt Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras were going to be awesome all year in the rotation, most people were more concerned about Oviedo.
I feel a tone shift coming. Just seemed like they were a bit less gung ho on targeting a starter than they’d been previously. Nothing saying they directly won’t get someone, but more of a hey we’re not that bad here in case we don’t type of feeling. If anything, I think a guy like Lorenzen dropping his 2 year deal wish might wind up being the path here.
2. Instant Karma…
Pittsburgh fans love to diminish the stardom or potential of their rivals. You know what I mean, Lamar Jackson is a running back, Ovechkin can score but he doesn’t do all these other things well, you get it.
It’s all in good fun, it’s all part of a rivalry, but it also has a tendency to make a lot of people look really dumb.
A really good for instance is Elly De La Cruz, the standout prospect for the Cincinnati Reds who burst on the scene doing a lot of exciting things and earning comparisons to the Pirates own Oneil Cruz. The height comparison alone is enough to get people thinking, but folks, these aren’t the same player.
Additionally, Elly doesn’t have to suck for Oneil to be great, or vice versa.
First, Oneil is 25, Elly is only 22. Oneil is a left handed hitter and struggled against lefties, Elly is a switch hitter and struggled against both.
Both struck out a bunch and didn’t walk much although Oneil did look like his offseason focus following 2022 at least was providing promising results in his extremely stunted 2023.
Point is, there are a lot of similarities, but there are a ton of differences too.
These two could be on a collision course to compete with each other for the next 5 years or just as easily, Elly never takes the next step, or Cruz ultimately can’t handle SS and he becomes a bit less than a complete package.
I guess the point is, you needn’t pretend you see all bad Tarot cards for Elly, then flip over all the same ones for Oneil and pretend the reading is different.
Their profiles are similar, their issues are similar, and if anything, Elly has more time to figure it out. I think I’d probably not feel the need to die on this hill is all I’m saying.
Karma, yeah, has a tendency to kick you in the teeth.
3. Last Kiss…
The Pirates have some players who are probably in danger of having this be their last year in the Black and Gold. Now, I’m not talking Yasmani Grandal or Rowdy Tellez here, I’m talking younger players and I’ll put my reasons next to each name. This isn’t meant to be a prediction of who will be out, it’s more about who is in the spot where they could be in danger of losing their 40-man spot or even just having the team move on after the season.
Some of them are going to piss you off, so again, not a prediction, just look at it like forecasting weather, the conditions are right for….
JT Brubaker – He’ll hopefully finish his UCL recovery this year, and the internal target chatter has been around the All Star Break. JT was agreed to 2.275 Million this year in Arb 2, so when he comes back, providing he stays on track we could be looking at July or August. That leaves him roughly 2 months to show he’s worth taking to arbitration for the third time and probably a price tag that eclipses 4 million. I could make an argument this would be smart regardless of what he’s able to do this year, but we’ve seen the Pirates move on from Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault when in similar situations.
Mitch Keller – If the Pirates don’t get an extension done with Mitch Keller and he has a year, even like his 2023, he’s going to approach 8 million in his Arb 3 case, which would be his last in Pittsburgh before reaching free agency. Where this team plans to be in 2025 tells me letting Mitch Keller walk or moving him with one year of control left for prospects can’t be option one, but it also has to be on the table. Best case scenario, they extend him. Second best, they hit on enough pitchers that they feel he’s expendable, but even then, wouldn’t you still want a guy who has proven he’s good vs a guy just starting to? Either way, these contract talks should they be unsuccessful become almost impossible to see reaching an agreement next offseason. Get a guy that close to free agency and the agents have a very clear image of the price tag he’ll command.
Ryan Borucki – Let me start here, if we so much as care about where he plays in 2025, he’ll have already beaten the odds by at least proving his 2023 wasn’t a fluke. He’s in his last year of arbitration and next year, he’ll reach free agency. I don’t expect the Pirates to even discuss extending him, frankly, they shouldn’t, his bad track record is a lot longer than his good one, but if he contributes like he did last year, he’s gonna get paid friends.
Roansy Contreras – This is a weird one. Here’s a guy with a little over a year of service time, meaning if he’s good, the Pirates can keep him for 5 more years, but he has no MLB options. So if he doesn’t make this team he’d have to be waived and sent to the minors should he clear waivers. He wouldn’t clear those waivers unless he looked just about as bad as he did last year, and even then he’s laid enough track in this league to think another team would believe they can fix him. 2024 is quite literally, the beginning of the rest of Roansy’s Pirates career, or the very end.
I could probably go into guys like Bailey Falter or Joshua Palacios but I’m not sure they’re in the expected to contribute, but might not category.
4. The One That Got Away…
I think I’m ready to call it here on this Edward Cabrera deal with Miami.
Let’s be really clear, this isn’t reporting. This is just my gut after taking in everything I’ve read, and personally heard.
Sounds to me like the Marlins and Pirates couldn’t come together on the Major League piece that the Pirates would return. It’s really unimportant to discuss the components, the big names you’re worried about like Johnson, Jones, Bubba, Henry or Skenes were never realistically in this conversation, Cabrera is a nice player with a good chance to be really good, but he’s not the type of player who’s returning that kind of prospect talent from a team like Pittsburgh. Miami would need to find a team that either has a lot more (there aren’t many) or a team that doesn’t need them nearly as badly (and they don’t want a project pitcher that bad). Long way to say, the Pirates are right for not overpaying here too.
Further, the Marlins were not budging, and with other suitors like Baltimore, that’s probably what they should do. Add in that Braxton Garrett has a bum shoulder that will at least slow him down this Spring for an extra kick in the seat.
Peeps, what seemed like a really nice fit, well, I don’t know, it’s not so good now.
I can say as of right now, I’d be shocked if this came together this Spring. If anything, it’s possible should they ultimately hold onto him they’ve laid some track for the deadline where these two teams come back together with a little more evidence on Cabrera and the Pirates part of the return too for that matter.
To get the kind of desperation it would take from the Pirates, you’re probably looking at a major injury to Keller, Perez or Gonzales.
Personally, I’m moving on from it. There’s enough here that I need to pivot to the actual roster and start talking to the rotation much as I did in thought number 1 today. By the time this week ends, I think we’ll all wind up on the same page, even if I’m wrong, one way or another we’ll all see this exactly the same in a week, there comes a point where the roster is the roster save the scrap sweeping from roster trimming at the end of Spring.
5. What’s Going On?
Listen, this Henry Davis going to AAA thing is kinda bat crap. It’s not that Henry going to AAA is completely off the table or impossible to comprehend, but it’s anything but the most likely outcome as Spring plays out.
The Pirates signed a vet for 2.5 million, so Shelton confirming they will have him on the roster, um, yeah. Why this immediately meant Henry was headed to AAA for some, bro, I just don’t see it.
I simply see, they spent a little bit of money on a dude, and he’s gonna be here.
There’s a whole lot of real, honest stuff happening, Spring Training just started after all, I see no reason to manufacture a situation.
Think about what many must have wanted to hear as an answer to a question specifically asked about the coach’s feelings on his newly signed catcher Yasmani Grandal. What many hoped was something like this…Well, Yas is obviously just depth here, his best days are behind him, Henry is the answer and he’ll take the lion’s share of innings and at bats until he proves to us he can’t do it.
You want him to say that with Jason Delay, Ali Sanchez, Carter Bins, Abrahan Gutierrez all out there working? You want them to tell their prospect catcher he’s already the starter before they’ve even had a team drill?
You’re welcome to want whatever you like of course, but that simply isn’t how baseball coaches or executives are ever going to address situations like this. In fact, I bet you couldn’t even get them to tell you Jack Suwinski is the starting Center Fielder right this second.
Rowdy Tellez is clearly making this team and playing first base, guarantee they won’t call him the starter, or even lock themselves in on who he might platoon with, if they would admit he might need a platoon.
C’mon, you’ve been around for a while, you know there was nothing weird there right?
6. Bonus: Return To Sender
Let’s welcome back Canaan Smith-Njigba who the Pirates claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. They’ve placed JT Brubaker on the 60 day IL to make room on the 40-man. I wasn’t happy he was let go, I’m happy they got him back, even if it amounts to nothing, I just couldn’t shake the feeling he didn’t get enough at bats to wash your hands of him entirely.
Steel City Pirates 