2-21-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
I just finished up the busiest time of the year for me (top 30 prospects episodes – check them out if you haven’t already) and now I’m ready to jump back into writing some articles on my beloved Buccos.
Ahead of last season, I did preview pieces on Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo and Ke’Bryan Hayes and predicted breakout seasons for each of them. If not for an early injury that took Burrows out for the year (and what will be most of this year as well), I think I would have gone 3-for-3 there.
But alas, with each new season, hope springs eternal that this perennial under-performer will suddenly figure things out. While many fans have hoped that person would be Bob Nutting (or Ben Cherington, depending on how you like to pass the buck here), the players on the field are the ones who ultimately will be the reason we win or lose.
I’ll have some more player previews in the coming weeks as this piece isn’t about any one player but really, a numbers game. The numbers game, honestly. A list of numbers which I feel are critical – for one reason or another – to this team’s success in the upcoming season.
We are now only a few days from the Pirates’ first Spring Training game. And with a 162-game schedule comes a few other numbers which might be important for the team this season as they hope to reach playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.
1
Technically, +1. As in, a positive run differential – or difference between runs scored and runs allowed. Last season, the team had a 14 game improvement to their record from 2022 but they still posted the 7th worst run differential in MLB. They were 2nd worst in 2022 (-226) – just behind the Washington Nationals – and in 2021 (-224) behind the Baltimore Orioles. In fact, Pittsburgh hasn’t posted a positive run differential since, unsurprisingly, 2015 when the Pirates had MLB’s 5th best mark with +97.
The run differential isn’t the “be-all, end-all” to determining whether a team will make the playoffs. The Chicago Cubs had a +96 last season and missed the playoffs while the National League Champion Arizona Diamondbacks were -9 and clearly were not encumbered by it. That said, you feel a lot better about your spot in the standings with a positive number there than a negative one, and the team should strive to be on the other side of it this season.
20
I was listening to Bridge to Buctober a few weeks ago and a comment from Josh Booth has been stuck in my head ever since: In all the years that they have existed, the Pirates have a single season with 4 players hitting 20+ home runs. It felt like the Braves entire lineup achieved this feat last season (only 7 out of 9, somehow) but the Pirates had just 2: Jack Suwinski (26) and Bryan Reynolds (24).
The franchise record for most home runs hit in a single season is 171, achieved in 1999, and it stands as the lowest single season home run total for ANY team in baseball. This was, obviously the year that four players (Brian Giles, Kevin Young, Al Martin and Ed Sprague) reached the 20+ plateau.
Yes, it was achieved during the height of the steroid era, and in a more hitter-friendly home park (Three Rivers compared to PNC Park) but it also feels like the pieces are in place to supplant this record in the near future. If Suwinski and Reynolds maintain – or potentially improve upon – their numbers from last season. Or maybe Oneil Cruz stays healthy and unleashes his potential, Henry Davis gets 400+ at-bats, Ke’Bryan Hayes continues his progression from late last season. Add in newcomers in Rowdy Tellez and Edward Olivares, you start to think maybe this team will have 4, 5, even 6 players vying to reach that 20 home run mark by year’s end.
87
We now have 3 wild card teams with no 1-game, win-or-go-home playoff spot to reach. Last season, the Diamondbacks squeaked into the playoffs with their 84-78 record and parlayed that into a trip to the World Series. The year before, the Phillies and their 87-75 mark ended in the World Series as well. Though they both ultimately fell short of their goals, it was proof once again that any team can get hot in the playoffs and all you need to do is get in.
I already mentioned the Pirates 14-game improvement from the previous season. If they can post another gain similar to that, somewhere in the 87-90 win mark would almost assuredly be enough to push them into October baseball again.
.984
That was the Pirates’ team fielding percentage. Yes, it’s not the most analytical way to assess a team’s defensive prowess but it’s one of the few team-based fielding metrics we can look at and judge against contemporaries. The Pirates ranked 21st in MLB and 12th in NL for Fielding Percentage in 2023. The top two teams? None other than the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks (.990).
Coincidence? Maybe. Keep in mind that the Pirates have switched out Gold Glove finalist, Carlos Santana, with Rowdy Tellez – who has a career -19 Outs Above Average – to man first base. Oneil Cruz may have offensive upside but there have long been concerns about his defense and losing a year of development last season could further curtail any progress he was making with the glove. The outfield is a mixed bag with Suwinski the only one projected as average after posting a single run in OAA category.
There is still some reason for hope. Hayes does a LOT of heavy-lifting on the infield, leading to his well-deserved Gold Glove this past off-season. Additionally, potential super-utility man, Jared Triolo, isn’t too far behind Ke as far as defensive proclivity is concerned and is likely going to bounce around the infield as needed.
Liover Peguero might not be the most skillful 2nd baseman but he is young, still learning and (if he secures the job) would be an improvement over Ji-hwan Bae (465.1) and Rodolfo Castro (207.2), who combined for 10 errors over just 673 innings. Peguero only played 208.2 innings at 2B but committed zero errors in that span.
There’s no guarantee the team will universally improve defensively but it’s something that you hope they make incremental growth as they look to open that playoff window.
5
Ok, this isn’t a number to achieve but more a number with a question. Most teams have a 5-man rotation to start the season. Some teams have a 5-man team to end the season too. The Pirates, notably, were not one of those teams as the 2023 season ended with just Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo as consistent members of the staff. And the offseason wasn’t too far along before news that Oviedo would need Tommy John Surgery was announced and then there was one.
The team – to whatever extent you believe or don’t believe it – has worked to address this glaring issue. They traded for Marco Gonzales and signed Martin Perez but it is clearly murky after that. With the bullpen as it stands currently, handing a lead over after 5 innings gives you a pretty good shot at keeping that lead but you need arms to get through those first few innings and there is no guarantee yet that the team is ready for this venture. Who makes up the 5 spots and pitches those 5 innings every 5th day is still to be determined.
22
Cutch is entering year 2 of his second (and final) stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has said he wants to play at least two more seasons and, while he likely spends most of his time as a designated hitter, he provides value to this team both on and off the field. For his career, he is one home run shy of 300, one triple short of 50 and 27 runs away from 1,200. While his career has been littered with highs and lows, his time playing baseball is winding down and he wants nothing more than to bring playoff baseball back to Pittsburgh.
For all the concerns about Cutch being a bat-only player, fans might prefer it that way. Per FanGraphs, Cutch has been a below-average defender for the past few years. His -36 Outs Above Average since 2016 (when tracking for the stat began) are the 20th worst in baseball over that stretch. Again, the value he brings with his bat – a wOBA of .345 last season with a 115 wRC+ and .378 on-base percentage (14th best in MLB) – as well as his veteran experience and passion for Pittsburgh make him a model teammate for pushing this team over the finish line and into meaningful games late in the season.
3/28
That number is the first day of the 162-game season and I can’t wait to see what happens.
Let’s Go Bucs!
Steel City Pirates 