2-26-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
Residents of Cincinnati have a lot of reason to be bullish on their baseball team right now.
The Reds were the darling of the baseball world for a period in 2023. It seemed as though each week they had a new & exciting player being called upon from the minor leagues. And each time that player reached the Show, they made a splash. As things often go, the team hit a skid after a red hot stretch. The perils of a young core.
So, the team will get a fresh go at it in 2024 with almost all hands on deck. Below is a zoomed out view of the organization as it stands currently.
Pitching
Andrew Abbott – Called up during the early post-Super 2 season (aka early June), Abbott had
an impressive rookie debut. Abbott posted a 2.2 fWAR 120 Ks, and a 3.87 ERA with peripherals that back up the results for the most part. Given that Abbott pitches in the worst hitters park in baseball and he gave up a lot of hard contact (5th percentile EV/6th percentile for Max EV), a lot of fly balls, and pairs them with a hitter friendly launch angle (21 degrees), this gives some pause when considering him as a possible front end option. Regardless, the debut was great. I expect there will be some ERA regression unless the batted ball profile changes in the right direction, but he will be a Reds SP for some time.
Hunter Greene – Somehow Greene is still just 24 years old and will be for the majority of the
2024 season too. Hampered by injury in 2023, the fireballer flashed his potential yet again in
what Reds fans may consider to be a frustrating sophomore year. The talent is there for a
monster breakout in his 3rd season and I would not be surprised to see him do it. His stuff is
LOUD. He does surrender some hard EVs against, but that is probably a case of him throwing
so damn hard the ball just being hit at all means it will come off the bat hot too. It needs to be noted that the rumor is Greene has added a splitter to his repertoire for 2024. The addition of a new pitch that “works” could portend a true ascension for him. If he approaches near 160-180 IP it will mean good things for the Reds.
Nick Lodolo – The 2019 1st round selection was a trendy breakout pick preseason. What the
Reds got was an injury plagued, underperforming 34.1 IP. His underlying numbers show that he was not as bad as the surface stats (6.29 ERA vs 4.83 xERA) & the stuff very much “popped” in generating whiffs, chases, Ks, and avoiding BBs. The sample was quite small and the health was quite poor. I still believe in Lodolo having high K #2 starter kind of ability if he can get his innings in and remain healthy. Two very big ifs to this point of his young career.
Graham Ashcraft – Yet another young fireballer in the Reds rotation. Ashcraft was a bit of a
mystery box in 2023. He throws an extremely hard cutter (95.8 mph avg) and sinker (96.5 mph avg) along with an effective hard slider (33.1 whiff%). His contact allowed is right at league average EV with a lower than average launch angle surrendered. Unfortunately he was not able to keep these figures down at his 2022 totals and it saw his results worsen a bit. The stuff he presents would make you expect a breakout is possible. But he just might not be able to get the Ks and avoid quality contact enough to reach new levels yet.
Nick Martinez – A newly added piece for the Reds, Martinez had a very successful 2023
season. While he appeared in 63 games he only started 9 total games. He enjoyed a great deal of success and earned himself a nice 3 year, $26 million dollar deal. Currently penciled into the starting rotation, Martinez will bring terrific flexibility to this club. In his career to this point he has been very able to suppress hard contact (98th percentile EV against & 95th percentile hard hit%), and he will need to keep that up as he takes his talents to the toughest pitcher’s park in the division.
Frankie Montas – Freshly inked to a 1 year/$16 million dollar deal for the Reds. In his last two
full seasons Montas has been a very gnarly pitcher. Frankie posted a 4.0 fWAR season for
Oakland in 2021 and remained dominant for 104.2 IP in Oakland in 2022. At the deadline the
Yankees acquired his services and he was abysmal. Part of this was due to the change in
parks, Oakland being a cavernous pitchers park & new Yankee Stadium being much more hitter friendly confines. Last we saw of Montas he threw 1.1 inning in the majors for the Bombers and just 3 AAA innings of rehab work. There is not much to glean from this other than to say based on what he got paid, the Reds must think he can bounce back to his pre-injury performance. I am hesitant to say he can be his old 2021 self again, but fans might be able to expect something akin to his 2022 level of play. His new home park is a hitters paradise, but his health should be much better than during his time in NY.
He looks locked in to the rotation and that begs the question of how do they all fit? Could we
see a 6 man rotation developing here?
Bullpen Bullet Points
Alexis Diaz – Diaz throws pure filth. One of the premier closers in the league. Can get a little
wild, but the trade off is big swing & miss stuff.
Lucas Sims – Sims has an arsenal tailor made for a set up role. He has struggled with health in
the past, but the stuff is great for the back end of a bullpen.
Emilio Pagan – Brought in via free agency. Pagan had a nice year back of the “baseball card”
year. He is currently slated to pitch in a set up role. I would expect him to regress to a sub 1
fWAR RP in 24.
Hitters
Joey Votto – Old friend Joey Votto remains unsigned to date. With the swell of young talent
arriving on a near daily basis for the Reds, it is difficult to envision a reunion happening. Not
impossible given his identity as a Red through and through. But hard to see becoming a reality as it stands.
Matt McLain – His middle infield partner gets a lot of the press, but McLain quietly put up an
awesome rookie debut. He is a terrific athlete, capable-to-good defender at both 2B and SS,
possesses plenty of game power, and a good approach with slight swing & miss bouts as a
rookie. While he did not make many super-human type plays like the next guy on our list, he
looks to be a clear fixture for this team.
Elly De La Cruz – Elly De La Cruz. A baseball unicorn. He is slightly divisive in some circles
because he has a clear set of warts in his game. More or less every baseball fan has seen or
heard of the absolute absurd nature of his gifts for the game of baseball. But will he ever be able to shake his approach and whiff issues? Many Pirate fans are fighting the good fight online arguing about who is better; Oneil Cruz or Elly De La Cruz. While I think this is mostly silly, because why can’t both just be viewed as good and extremely fun? I think it sort of highlights that they’ve got similar specters haunting them and threatening their upside at the dish. Similarly to how Oneil ended his debut season, Elly also was making some noticeable headway by improving his swing decisions and whiff% against breaking pitches. In his brief showing before being felled by injury, Oneil Cruz had appeared to maintain his approach tweaks into 2023. We will find out if De La Cruz (and Oneil) is capable of holding these gains into 2024. I must admit that I hope to see them both figure it out. Will it be frustrating for one of the Pirates chief opps to have a baseball mutant of their own? Yes. But baseball is better when there are more of these guys around!
The upside with ELDC is truly hard to fathom. I expect the batting average to remain on the low side in 2024. But I would not be surprised to see a 30/50 homer/steal season. I almost expect it, even.
Spencer Steer – Steer was a mega success story in 2023. A fringey kind of prospect for Minnesota, steer is not on the fringe any more. The bat appears to be real. His deficiencies with the glove sort of make him homeless on that end. While it could become tricky as the Reds seemingly unending flow of talent keeps going, his bat will keep him on the field in whatever spot will hurt the team the least.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES was also part of the same deal that brought Spencer Steer over from Minnesota. I regret to say, but he looks like a dawg. It was a pretty small sample size at the Major League level, he does look like a legit big time power hitter though. He checks many of the boxes you’d look for. Hits the ball extremely hard on average, hits the ball extremely hard on line drives and flyballs, did not struggle terribly with breaking pitches or off speed pitches. It is a successful slugger’s profile at heart. He did have a little whiff in his game, but that is par for the course with this kind of guy. CES should annually challenge for 30 homer seasons with a pretty good batting average to boot.
TJ Friedl – If there is one name to expect to not “buy” what we saw in 2023, it is Friedl. For three straight seasons now he has outperformed his xStats and underlying data. As a general rule of mine, when a player has been able to replicate this for multiple seasons in a row, it starts to become a skill in its own right. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, but he does pull & lift the ball relatively well. This approach is similar to that of a lesser Isaac Paredes approach. And also like Paredes, Friedl plays in a park that allows this to play up. It is not wise to continually bet on players to outpace their underlying numbers over the long haul, but he is in his prime years right now. A regression is possible, certainly. But it may not be as big as one would immediately expect.
Will Benson – Benson was a KYE favorite last season and much of that doesn’t change for It does not appear that he is a full time player though. Benson only saw 41 ABs against
LHPs in 2023 and the splits were clear. He is a dangerous hitter against RHPs though.
Stop me when you’ve heard this before, but he too exceeded his underlying xStats. Here again we see the home ballpark factor giving him a bump. Make no mistake though, Benson hits it hard on average and pretty hard in the air. His approach is OK. Benson will not chase often, but he’s got a high whiff%. It does not appear that he could function as a full time player at this point, but he is a dangerous piece nonetheless.
Noelvi Marte – Marte debuted and had a solid showing in his 35 game sample. One of the big
knocks on Marte was that he was not really a premium athlete. Well, all he did was post a near elite MLB sprint speed of 29.1 ft/s. Pair that with top end max EVs and well above average average EVs and you’ve got a scary young player. One lagging factor is an extremely below optimal launch angle sitting at just 1.9 degrees. Small sample alert overall – but at a glance he has proved himself to be very much an elite prospect. It must be noted that he is already battling a hamstring injury sustained this winter. While it does not sound too serious, these injuries can linger and have an impact in many facets of the game.
Jonathan India – India had a nice bounceback season after a disappointing sophomore year. The overall production was still down with just a 99 wRC+ and a slightly above average wOBA. Nevertheless he is a solid contributor across the board on offense. This roster is clogged with a lot of good pieces, so he may be rounding out into a utility sort of role in 2024.
Jeimer Candelario – The biggest offensive player brought in by the Reds, Candelario has a very “Reds” profile. That is to say; he spent most of 2023 overperforming his underlying data. Bringing him in should allow for a competent bat that can play a few positions, mainly 1B, 3B, & DH. Things get crowded quickly in Cincinnati when trying to put together their projected lineups.
Farmhands
Connor Phillips – Phillips got a small taste of the Majors in 2023. The results were mixed, but he flashed his truly nasty sweeper that resulted in a .159 wOBA against & a .091 BA against. The control will need to be firmed up or he could end up in the bullpen eventually.
Chase Petty – Early this offseason there have been reports of Petty reaching big time velocities. If he is able to maintain this, you will see him skyrocket up prospect ranks. He already possesses a great slider and control (5.8 BB% at A+ & 3.2% at AA). One to watch close.
Rhett Lowder – The number 7 overall pick in the 2023, Lowder has yet to debut yet. He is an advanced arm and should move quickly to the upper minors.
Edwin Arroyo – Still just 20 years old, Arroyo feels as though he has been on the radar for a long time. As his profile stands currently he has the potential to be an average to above contributor in all facets of the game.
Sal Stewart – The 32nd overall selection in 2022, Stewart is primed to see his stock blast off in 2024. The approach is good with a higher BB% than K% in the lower minors. Physically there is a lot of projection due to his large frame at 6’3” 215lbs.
Blake Dunn – Dunn is in an odd place as a prospect. Old for his level in most of 2023, but the
production is hard to doubt. He went for 23 homers, 54 steals, and hit .304 across A+/AA. Given his age it is tough to predict where his ultimate ceiling is, but the ingredients are there for him to be a Major League player.
Well, as much fun as it is to take a dive on this organization, I think this is a good spot to leave it for this point of the season. If I had to guess; I would say this team has the talent to make a statement in 2024. But I think that they are still not quite in the same tier as St. Louis, Milwaukee, and maybe the Cubs. Seeing Cincinnati excel would not surprise me. On the other side of the coin, seeing them have their struggles with extremely brilliant moments is more in line with my expectations in 2024.
Steel City Pirates 