Steel City Pirates Q&A – Deep Questions for Early Spring

3-2-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Impressive questions this week, truly. Some of them really got me thinking, some of them opened up a path I honestly hadn’t considered yet. That’s why I love these pieces. Completely selfish view here, but these give me a box full of tools.

I get to see where the general concern is of the fans, the names and issues that are most top of mind for you and sometimes they challenge me to discuss something I’ve been avoiding because there isn’t a clean answer.

Thank you all for participating, and again, I’ll do my best to answer them all with as serious an answer as I can.

Question 1

Is it odd that Cutch hasn’t played in any ST games? I know you don’t run him out there a bunch, but thought he would at least have a PH or two. Did I miss something? – Brad Frantz

I don’t think you missed anything per se, they aren’t exactly screaming it from the rooftops. They’ve decided the take it very slow with Cutch as he works his way back into baseball shape and for that matter health in general following his Achilles injury. I haven’t heard from anyone exactly when we should expect him to play, but I also haven’t heard anyone concerned that he won’t be ready for the season starting. If we still haven’t seen him play after this week, they’ll be forced to address it more up front. My guess is if they had anything to say we’d have heard it yesterday when they finally addressed why Palacios hasn’t played, dealing with a lower leg injury and we should see him this week, by the way.

I get the impression he’s ok though, just probably a bit “baseball behind” as he mainly focused on injury rehab this offseason.

Question 2

Do you think the pirates have reached out to the remaining FA pitchers? if so are they just not interested in the buccos? – Drizzy16

There are a lot of remaining free agent pitchers, I know for a fact they’ve reached out to some, I know some they haven’t. The three “big” ones are Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is nowhere near in the same class as the other two, but those three are the best available.

Lorenzen is said to want 2 years, clearly nobody has yet been interested, or more accurately desperate enough, to take that on. I’m quite sure he’d love to play in Pittsburgh what with his affinity for Clemente and the Clemente family, but I also know he wants and AAV around 10M. This is as simple as I don’t believe Cherington wants to lock in on him for 2 years. As I understand it, they’ve made an offer, long ago actually. If they’ve reapproached him, it hasn’t reached me, and I haven’t seen it reported.

Montgomery has held fast he wants to return to the Rangers. The Rangers for whatever reason haven’t moved forward with it. Looks like he’s got some other teams interested mainly in the AL East, but we’ll see. I have never thought the Pirates were terribly interested here.

Snell is simply out of the question here. He’ll wind up signing a Boras style, option laden contract that essentially gives him the ability to pitch for a year or two for 25-30 mil per then opt out and try again for the mega deal if he’s performed. The price tag doesn’t match the amount of innings Snell typically gives in a season, and that’s why they’re struggling to find a match. The Pirates in my mind are certainly not in this. They hate player options, almost lost Reynolds because of it, and I can’t imagine he’s interested either.

Question 3

Hey Gary – what is the current sentiment on whether Henry Davis is going to be the Opening Day starter behind the plate. I cannot imagine Grandal usurping him. – UnburdenedDoctor

I’ll take this as my sentiment, because according to social media he’s starting in AAA because Pirates are dumb.

I’ve seen nothing negative about his catching this Spring. I’ve seen nobody say anything negative about his catching this Spring. He’s also hitting.

I see no tangible benefit for the Pirates to impede Henry in any way. Opening day? Looks like they’ll be facing Luzardo, so I sure as hell hope so.

Question 4

When do you think or what do you think it would take for BC to be on the hot seat as GM? – James Littleton

People won’t want to believe it, but Cherington is safe through at least 2026, and I mean before I could see Bob Nutting even close to ready to discuss it. Everyone involved with this team knew Cherington and Williams for that matter were going to play the long game here. There wasn’t going to be a quick answer here, not with everything they wanted to do.

Despite popular belief, Bob isn’t a stupid man, he knew this wasn’t going to be some silly 5 year plan, it’s instead an overhaul of everything they did.

This was just highlighted in the Athletic piece actually. A full scale change of everything this franchise does on the baseball front. Scouting, training, analytics, development, I mean, even the talent itself.

Listen, I don’t say all that to paint the picture is all has been smooth, clearly it hasn’t, nor am I saying it’s ultimately going to get them the ultimate prize, what I am sure of though, there isn’t one important person in this franchise that thinks they could possibly have been farther along than they are right now employing the method this GM sold to ownership.

People don’t often think about the hiring process here, but it’s key. GM’s come in with a resume and that of course matters, but Cherington didn’t come in and try to convince Bob he’d have this ship turned around and in the playoffs after waving a magic wand for 6 months. They knew this would take time and we’re just nowhere near the point where the owner is suddenly going to admit, realize, have a change of heart as to the approach.

I say 2026 because by then he’ll have had 3 draft picks in the top 5, likely all here and if it doesn’t look like it’s working by then, ok, they’ll talk. Bluntly, I think it’s more likely Cherington realizes he can’t get over the top without an infusion of cash and moves on himself having built a system up and having a story in his pocket for how he could do it affordably, but not without some willingness to stretch the budget to kick it over.

Question 5

What’s the ceiling if we find at least one good answer at each position among all the prospects and we have a comfortable stable lineup halfway through the season? – Chris Reisinger

We’ll never have what fans consider a comfortable and stable lineup for the simple fact that Analytics won’t allow it. Much of the lineup will find a spot and kinda stick there like Reynolds and Cutch last year, but never the majority. It’s just not Shelton’s style, and frankly, not Cherington’s, he wants analytics very involved.

All that said, They’re pretty close on the position player thing now. Catcher, second base and right field remain questions, but they have good answers for all of them already.

I’m not sure how to answer the ceiling part. It’s essentially, hey, if everything goes perfectly what could this team get done? And conspicuously left out the pitching which would probably hold them back.

I’d say if the offense performs like I think they will, They’ll make a Wild Card run this year.

Question 6

I know it’s only been a few innings, but what are your thoughts on Peralta. If they send Quinn and Ortiz down because they have options, I’d take him over Falter every time. – SadPiratesFan

Honestly, I just said yesterday on X as unpopular as it is to praise an NRI, I think he’s been quite impressive. 3 innings so, like you said, early, but a guy like this has a shot for sure to snag a long man spot, probably in a batter with guys like Honeywell, Heller. There is room for this, especially if the Pirates choose to not add a starter before the season starts. Having someone who can and has eaten 4-5 innings in this league might be important.

As to Falter, I share your pessimism.

Question 7

If Triolo wins the 2B job, how you do see the backup INF spot shaking out? And is there any downside, team/roster build wise, in your eyes if Triolo doesn’t wind up playing the role (Swiss Army knife UTL guy) many assumed? – Nick Cammuso

To me this is all about who can do what. Triolo in my mind was always going to make this team. He’s the best backup 3B they have, arguably the best backup SS they have and from what I’ve seen an extremely capable 2B, not to mention his 1B ability. You know all this, but making the team is step one and he’s the only one in this battle I can sit back and comfortably say is a Major League player right now.

How the backup role would shake out? Well, to me if Triolo is starting at 2B, they’re going to have to find someone who can help at 3B and SS. Gonzales is the only one who can handle 3rd, but SS, probably not. Peguero makes sense, but I could see them not wanting him to sit on the bench.

Thing is though, at some point they’re going to have to start picking winners and losers, or else you tend to never find a winner, just create losers. Hearing the constant consternation about getting at bats for so and so every time you discuss someone grabbing a starting role gets silly as you’re looking at an all kid group to choose from. You can’t always have a Chris Owings type to “rot on the bench” but it’s hard to do to a prospect you think has legs.

If Triolo wins 2B, I see Gonzales or Bae as having a better chance to make it as a backup, probably Bae in front. Gonzales would be a direct admission he’s gonna top out as a bench player though. Bae could probably get some ABs in CF too which would prevent me from thinking he would be “given up on” per se.

Question 8

Who will be the s**tty player that the Pirates force us to watch for far too long this year? – Jim Rosati

We actually talked about this on the Pirates Fan Forum last week a bit. If I had to pick the most likely subjects, Yasmani Grandal, Rowdy Tellez, Bailey Falter and my dark horse, Colin Selby.

The management is already setting up the Grandal hate, every time he is named the starter fans will take it as a slap in the face to Henry, and them.

Question 9

As we sit here today, what percentage chance do you put Hank starting the season in Indy? Feel like its gotta be close to 0 at this point…right…? How about Skenes? And for him its more is it Indy or is it Altoona. Feel like Pittsburgh isnt even in the mix. -Pitt_Panther_

Right now? Zero. I’ve seen nothing to make me believe Henry is a minor league player. Skenes, I think we’ll see start in Altoona, and I doubt it’s for long, mostly an effort to get him on a schedule and as he himself said, start to learn what was going to get better hitters out.

Question 10

Only 44 MLB pitchers in 2023 pitched 162 or more innings. Is the line between starter, middle reliever, and once through the lineup opener becoming more muddled? Does this trend help the Pirates given their apparently deep bullpen? – Mark Graham

It is, and clearly so as evidenced by the fact that Rob Manfred himself acknowledged starters aren’t doing what they traditionally have in the league. I have no idea how they plan to address it, but for sure, the game has trended in this direction.

I can say the stat keepers haven’t adapted. The low water mark that used to be a quality start is now somehow much less attainable than it used to be. I think we can see on the Free agent market when a guy can give those kind of innings, they get paid differently, so there is still incentive to do it for a player, but management doesn’t allow it or demand it the way they used to.

In many ways, analytics have robbed us of seeing what some guys could do if asked to do so. Holding back pitches to use later in a game as you face a rotation for a third time through is dying, now most guys just use their entire quiver from the jump unless they’re one of the rare pitchers expected to give 6 or 7 innings like Keller.

Long way of saying, yes, in many ways it’s become arms, arms, arms, innings, innings, innings, and if it takes 6 tonight, so be it.

The commissioner recognizes it’s not good for the fans. The Players union should recognize it’s bad for their top earners. But I’m not sure how you legislate out trying to win at all costs.

Question 11

Any thoughts that the pirates mine sign another outfielder (Pham, Duval or Taylor) or a pitcher (Lorenzen)? You thinking maybe there happy with the young players they’ve picked up (Oliveras, Perez or Celestino) or the pitchers they’ve signed (Peralta, Fleming, Anderson or Honeywell). Maybe just the young pirates will get the job done. Until Skenes and Solometo are ready. – Richard Sabatos

I don’t see them bringing in another outfielder. Legitimately believe they think they have enough out there. Pitching, I just can’t see this as being off the table. There are still some legitimate options out there, relatively affordable and the longer we go without Martin Perez pitching the more concerned I become. Having Gonzales, Perez and Keller as the only established starters could be ok, but they can’t afford for any of the 3 to be anything less than healthy.

Big if for me. I thought they needed another all off season, I can’t shake it now.

Question 12

Do u think they might make a trade before April first in regards to the starting pitching or an outfielder? Robert Greene

I certainly think it’s possible, but once Spring gets rolling the problem is all the other teams start getting a feeling for their rosters too.

Here’s why I leave the door cracked. Lorenzen, Montgomery, Snell, Cueto, whoever else you think is worth a crap out there will very likely sign and when they do that team will inevitably have a 4th or 5th starter they suddenly become ok with moving. Probably a guy with no options or down to one. Maybe a guy who’s borderline bullpen or rotation.

Say the Giants grab Snell, well that’ll leave a guy like Sean Hjelle on the outside looking in for the rotation. He’s a big 6′ 11″ pitcher with one option left, under a year of service time, lots of potential for the 45th overall pick in 2018, he’s also 27 years old.

Look, I’m just making up a guy, I have no idea how the Giants feel about him, just explaining the type of guy who sometimes pops loose as teams upgrade. I can’t even say he’d be better than Ortiz, but he has experience, even if not much. This would be his first year as an MLB starter though. He’s always been one in the minors, but he isn’t the instant step in answer so don’t get hung up on the name. Again, just explaining how it happens that guys become available.

Any team that picks up Montgomery or Snell in particular might be a potential trade partner, and potentially a motivated one who doesn’t want to DFA someone.

Question 13

One thing I want to ask is, I know you and I have discussed it’s early spring ball, but what’s some of your take aways so far? Who looks like they wanna win the 2nd base battle? Right now it seems like they’re still going through cuts from the looks of it. You know I sincerely love hearing your takes. – Neal Kokiko

They’re going to go through cuts until the last day of Spring, probably the day after actually. That’s how it almost always works for the 25th or 26th man. It could even come down to negotiating with players who have opt outs and were NRIs, before making a final call on a roster decision, you might want to see if you can convince someone like Peralta to hang around in the minors and if he won’t, you might decide it’s better to just have him make the roster.

Now, Peguero and Triolo were the leaders at 2B, and they still are. If anything, they’ve separated themselves farther. Henry looks impressive, I can’t see any real reason to expect he’s anything but the primary catcher this year and he’ll hit.

Keller is Keller, he’ll be fine. I’m worried about Perez and Gonzales in the rotation. Perez cause he hasn’t pitched, Gonzales cause he hadn’t in a long time and he just isn’t going to throw anything that inspires hope, he’s just not a stuff guy.

Biggest takeaway, this team has some pretty lofty power potential, I think they could finish in the top 15 for sure, maybe 10 for homers.

Bullpen will be filthy and deep.

Rotation is weak, will start weak even if they bring in another, but by the end of the year it’ll be much more promising.

Generally, the players believe, and while they’ve said the right things in years past, this is different now. They believe they’re good, more than that, they believe they can take this division. That won’t mean they win, but if they have one way of thinking, that’s the one you want.

And it is early for much more than broad strokes.

Question 14

What does your heart tell you about this team right now? – James Littleton

My heart says this offense could be good enough to make up for the starting rotation enough to get them over .500 and into a Wild Card competition.

Unfortunately I have this damn brain too.

Question 15

Cutchs role this year. Same as last year ? Everyday at DH and in the 3 spot in the order ? Or Is Davis going to eat into his DH at bats and Cutch is more of a 2-3 starts per week and pinch hitting. Why not take his high on base % and bat him 9th so Cruz and Reynolds can feast with him on base. – Ryan Antonucci

I don’t think any of us could know Ryan, especially given he hasn’t done anything yet.

First thing I can say is, I think they’ll need the DH spot to rest Cruz and Davis but keep their bat in the lineup. So, I don’t think this team can afford to have an everyday DH, bluntly if Cutch wasn’t Cutch I wouldn’t have seen this as a “need”.

Like last year, they and Cutch claim they want him to play some more outfield. I’m sure they both really do want that, but like last year, I’m quite sure they’ll quickly discover Cutch can’t do it as much or as well as they’d like.

I think if he finishes around 400-500 at bats I’d feel they probably used him a bit more than I personally expected.

Primarily though, I think when he plays he’ll be a DH.

Question 16

Pay Skenes 10 years 100 million right now? – Heath DiSalvo

I wrote this about 10 days ago.

For Extension – If this franchise truly believes Paul Skenes will debut in 2024, I think it’s a brilliant idea. Let’s do some math, I know, gross, but let’s do it anyway. In any young player’s first three years they’ll make league minimum unless they sign a contract that pays them more. League minimum will raise by 20K year over year for the next two leading into the new CBA. For Paul that would mean if he started right out of Spring (set aside your opinion on this for the moment) $2.26 Million. He obviously has the bonus he signed for too so he won’t go hungry. Then arb starts and that’s where this gets tricky, cause you have to start guessing. the only player who comes close to Skenes in recent history is probably Gerrit Cole but it’s been a while, and inflation is real. In arbitration he made a cool $24 Million. Now, Gerrit didn’t fly out the gate so let’s say that was probably low anyway so lets give Paul a very optimistic for him 32 million. To me, that number right there is why this is possible. You take those 6 affordable years and try to buy 2 or 3 years where yes he could easily make another 20-25-dare I say 30 mil per on the open market. Approach him with 9 years 75 million, pay a little more now so you keep him longer and keep his pay reasonable later in turn. Even if I’m off a few mil here, it’s not a whole lot on either side. Now, let him prove it for a year, everything I just wrote is erased. Those extra years are what get more and more expensive.

Against Extension – I mean, we’ve seen like 10 minutes of this guy. He looks like he has crazy good stuff, but let’s not pretend 75 million even if it’s spread out wouldn’t be a risk. What if he has a career path like Taillon? What if that electric stuff for whatever reason just doesn’t fool MLB hitters often enough? Tough to 100% say this is anything more than a bet with nice odds to pay out.

So, clearly I’m on board, but I don’t think I can outline the pros and cons much better than I did here. If you’re interested in my thoughts on everyone else who could be up for extension, check it out.

Question 17

On Skenes. Putting when he’ll be promoted aside. Do you have a feel for how the Pirates will manage his innings? Strasburg pitched a total of 123 innings between the minors and majors in his rookie season in 2010 and they shut him down before the playoffs. Do you think there’s a way the Pirates could stretch him out but have innings left at the end of the season on the outside chance the Bucs make the wildcard? – Jim Maruca

I love this question, I love the entire thought process because baked into it is the understanding that you can’t expect this guy to be Roy Halladay tomorrow. It takes time to become the horse he looks like.

If you toss in his professional innings after being drafted, he threw roughly 130 innings last year and I see them likely looking at 150 as a good benchmark. You’re very right to assume he’d likely run dry on innings by the end of the season, but the Pirates have shown they’ll stretch it out, some would argue that’s what they did last year with Oviedo and many of those same people would use it as a reason for his injury.

All that said, I expect them to let him build up and see what he can do instead of worrying that he will have to stop. The next step has to come one way or another. I do think we’ll see him as a member of a 6 man rotation in MiLB and that’ll be a familiar once a week turn for him. If he does that and builds up to 7 even 8 innings of work in each outing that probably puts him around 65-75 innings a couple months in. Now, that assumes he goes deep in all of them, never has a skipped rotation turn, and starts the season fully revved which he won’t. So, I think they could get to June with him only having thrown 50-60. If he’s earned a call up shortly after that, he probably has a good 100 left for the big club.

Frankly though, this is why Keller was so intent on making sure he hit 200 innings in 2023, which ultimately he didn’t reach. In order to succeed in the playoffs as a starter, you can’t be a shell of yourself when you get there. Paul is a special kid, but if they aren’t careful with him, well, they’re as dumb as many fans assume.

I believe the path will look something like this. 6 man rotation, one turn a week, build up the number of ups and downs they’ll let him see in one day. Build up the number of pitches they’ll let him touch. Call him up if ready, let him continue his path and let the talent decide where it goes. If they worry about him pitching in the playoffs before they get there, I’m afraid we’ll have the same conversation next year.

I wish there was a real and understood science to keeping these guys on the field, but there just isn’t any one size fits all method. This is how I see Skenes’ path though.