3/6/2024 – Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN
Prospects have dominated the scope of discussion for the Pittsburgh Pirates for the better part of the past half decade.
Every off-season, we see multiple outlets release rankings for MLB’s best prospects, from MLB Pipeline, who we’ll use today, to Baseball America, FanGraphs and more.
MLB Pipeline annually updates each team’s top-30 prospect rankings before the start of the season, while updating the list as prospects graduate or players play above or below their initial ranking.
For now, the Pirates top-30 has plenty of names we’d consider “household names”, but also some prospects who the fanbase overall may not know just yet, but could in the coming seasons.
So let’s take a look at what MLB Pipeline thinks are the top-30 prospects in the Pirates minor league system.
The Top Five
RHP Paul Skenes, 2B Termarr Johnson, RHP Jared Jones, LHP Anthony Solometo, RHP Bubba Chandler
Most of you reading this piece know these names, seeing as all five of these players were also featured in MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list that came out earlier this offseason.
The Pirates system is and will continue to be headlined by Paul Skenes, the number one selection in the 2023 MLB Draft and arguably the most highly touted pitching prospect since Stephen Strasberg.
It was announced Tuesday that Skenes would start the 2024 season in the minors, which is the right decision, but his debut trajectory will be much shorter than what the average fan is accustomed to due to his talent and the need for rotational help as the season progresses.
Termarr Johnson should continue to garner attention locally, and nationally as well. Johnson has showcased some of his skills with the bat this spring and should continue to progress through the system in 2024 as he continues to hit for contact and power with potentially elite bat-to-ball skills.
Jared Jones is the likeliest to debut in 2024 of this top-five, seeing a step forward in 2023 with a 3.85 ERA in 126.1 IP last year.
His velocity has flashed in spring thus far, seeing him even touch triple digits on the radar gun. Jones four pitch mix also offers further optimism to becoming a top starter in the Pirates rotation, but the progression on his off-speed pitches to become complimentary to his above average fastball, slider combination will determine just how quickly he comes up in 2024.
Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler round out the top-five, and both were sent to minor league camp as part of the first cuts of spring.
Neither Solometo, nor Chandler, should debut this year, but both have high upside and had good season’s last year, so I would expect a heavy dose of the duo at AA Altoona through 2024 as they continue to progress in their own areas.
Both should also push for the rotation in 2025, making the Pirates future outlook for the rotation, even next year, even more positive then how most currently feel about the group.
6-10
RHP Thomas Harrington, RHP Braxton Ashcraft, SS Mitch Jebb, SS Tsung-Che Cheng, SS/3B/2B Jack Brannigan
The top-seven of the Pirates prospect list is dominated by pitching, and that continues with Thomas Harrington.
Becoming Campbell’s highest selected pitcher in 2022 at 36th overall, he arguably has the most diverse pitching arsenal of anyone in the system, having the ability to throw five different offerings.
His velocity currently sits around 93-94mph, topping out at 95mph, something you’d like to see an uptick in but is not the biggest deal if it doesn’t increase. He tends to mix in his sweeping slider and changeup alongside the fastball while mixing in a cutter and curveball as well, so if he mix those pitches well and throw each offering consistently, he should have no issue in at least becoming a back-end rotation piece.
Braxton Ashcraft comes in at seven, and I spoke about Ashcraft on Locked On Pirates a bit on Tuesday, due to the fact I think he can make a real impact for the Pirates in 2024.
Ashcraft has dealt with multiple serious injuries as well as the missed COVID year in his young career, but a resurgent 2023 that saw him post a 1.35 ERA over 20 innings in AA and a 2.39 ERA overall awarded him a 40-man roster spot this winter.
Like Harrington, he has multiple pitches he is confident in throwing, but most impressive was his 1.9 BB/9 last year, so he showed a strong ability to keep the ball in the zone. If Ashcraft continues to hone his craft and lean into his athleticism, he could become a staple in the Pirates bullpen faster than you might think.
Mitch Jebb follows behind Ashcraft, and the Michigan State product already has the highest hit tool (60) in the Pirates system.
The 2023 2nd-round selection has great bat to ball skills, being a primarily line-drive hitter who doesn’t strike out often, if at all, while also getting on-base via the free pass. He couples those attributes with above average speed, stealing 11 bases last season in 34 games with Low-A Bradenton.
Jebb is further away then some other bats in the system, but he could be anything from a shortstop to a second baseman to maybe an outfielder, but he and the Pirates have plenty of time to see what he becomes.
Tsung-Che Cheng slots in at nine and folks, this kid has some high potential.
I’d argue Cheng has the best glove in the middle infield in the system, and his 60-fielding grade would agree. Not only that, he also has a bat that is no slouch either. Cheng had an .808 OPS last season with Bradenton and Greensboro, hitting 13 homers while having a 1.006 OPS away from Greensboro, so the kid can hit. If his offense can continue to impress and the glove stays consistent, he could be a fun player for this Pirates team as soon as next year.
Jack Brannigan falls into the same category as Cheng in my opinion, and he slots in at 10, having solid fielding skills while also flashing offensive potential.
Brannigan was a reliever in college, hence the 70-grade arm, and he’s played third base, shortstop and second base in his minor league and Arizona Fall League time.
A .914 OPS in 2023 with 19 HR and 54 RBIs offers optimism that his bat can play alongside the glove, its just a matter of seeing it in the upper-levels of the system while also wondering where he’ll play with Ke’Bryan Haye occupying third base for the foreseeable future, but Cheng and Brannigan could create an even bigger log jam in the middle infield if they both pan out as regular big leaguers.
11-15
RHP Mike Burrows, OF Lonnie White Jr., RHP Zander Mueth, LHP Hunter Barco, LHP Michael Kennedy
Leaving the top-10, it becomes clear this system is dominated by pitching.
Slotting in at 11 is Mike Burrows, a player many believed could debut last year but was sidelined with Tommy John Surgery before getting a real shot to do so. Burrows was a 40-man player after a strong 2022, but he likely won’t return to action later this year, pushing his debut to likely 2025.
Lonnie White Jr. comes in at 12, and the former football player, who almost went to Penn State just for that, has football speed, having the highest run grade(70), in the entire system.
Playing only 11 games from 2021-2022 due to injury, White Jr. finally stayed relatively healthy in 2023, appearing in 61 games, 44 of those for Bradenton. His calling card will always be his speed, but he also flashed a bit of power potential last year, hitting nine homers. He likely profiles as a center fielder with his top-end speed, he just has to stay healthy and continue to check boxes as far as improvements are concerned.
2023 comp-B selection Zander Mueth comes in at 13, and honestly, I don’t have much to say about Mueth expect that he already has a fastball that tops out at 97mph, a sweeping slider that has action and a changeup in the mid-80s. Mueth won’t debut for awhile, but he should have upside if he can control those pitches better moving forward.
Left handers Hunter Barco and Michael Kennedy round out the top-15, both with ETAs 2026 or later. Barco is a University of Florida product who elicits a ton of ground-ball outs with a sinking fastball while Kennedy, a high school product, has similar offerings despite needing some more work on his off-speed selections. Both will be interesting to watch at the lower levels of the system for sure and if they pan out, it could create a strong, layered pitching system in Pittsburgh.
16-20
OF Shalin Polanco, SS Yordany de los Santos, RHP Jun-Seok Shim, 1B/3B/C Garrett Forrester, LHP Jackson Wolf
If you’ve ever spoken to me about Pirates prospects, you know I love Shalin Polanco and his potential.
Coming in at 16, Polanco was a top-10 international prospect in 2021 and had his first, full season of professional ball last year. His 12 homers along with a .762 OPS at Bradenton impressed, but bringing down his strikeout-rate will be huge for his development.
He profiles more at the corners in the outfield, having had time at all three positions, but keep an eye on Polanco and his power, as I believe its sneaky good and could play moving forward with the right adjustments.
Yordany de los Santos comes in at 17, being the fourth-ranked shortstop in the system. He hasn’t done anything overly impressive, but the team decided to give him ample opportunities in the Florida Complex League and the Florida State League, which are great opportunities for youngsters to face top, young talent.
He already flashes high exit velocities and bat speed, with the biggest question being a potential development of power. I also don’t know if he’ll be a shortstop long-term, but he’s only 19, so he has plenty of time to figure that out.
Pitcher Jun-Seok Shim sees himself 18th in the system, and Shim was ranked very highly in the 2023 international signing period.
Choosing to sign with the Pirates instead of the KBO, he already has a four-pitch arsenal with a ton of power potential as his fastball already sits consistently in the mid-90s. He couples that with a 12-6 curveball and a slider, while mixing in a changeup that needs a ton of work.
Shim has plenty of development time ahead of him, but if he can continue to hone his craft and become a true power pitcher, the Pirates may have found an intriguing international signing in the coming years.
Garrett Forrester ranks 19th as the highest ranked first baseman in the system, having experience at 3B and even catcher collegiately.
A 2023 third rounder, Forrester left Oregon State walking more than he struck out, which I absolutely love. I’d expect Pittsburgh to lean into first base time with Forrester, seeing as the depth in the system and overall isn’t great, but Forrester, like the others ahead of him in this category of five, has plenty of reps ahead of him to find a defensive home and bring those hit tools to the professional level.
Left-hander Jackson Wolf, a 40-man player who was optioned to AA-Altoona recently, slots in at 20, and he’s a guy the Pirates could use this season if needed.
Wolf arrived via a trade from San Diego, and the WVU product has had success in the minors while appearing in one MLB game so far in his career. He has a unique delivery, which helps with average offerings, all of which aren’t the fastest.
He also stands 6-foot-7, so if he can continue to throw strikes while adding even a slight uptick in velocity, he could profile as a solid, back-end starter in this league with the right situation and improvements.
21-25
OF/1B Jase Bowen, RHP Kyle Nicholas, RHP Patrick Reilly, OF Enmanuel Terrero, UTIL Jesus Castillo
The bottom-10 begins with Jase Bowen at 21, a former two-sport athlete in high school who has seen some time this spring and reached AA-Altoona.
He had a 20-20 season last year with a .794 OPS, so his speed could be valuable in the outfield while his power could be valuable either in the outfield or at first base.
Bowen has shown he can be a plus-defender at either position, and if he continue to hit the baseball hard, he should have no issues with eventually finding big league time.
Kyle Nicholas is likely the most familiar name of the bottom-10, seeing as he got four appearances with Pittsburgh last year.
Nicholas struggled in those appearances, but to be frank, he wasn’t quite ready. A 5.20 ERA in 98.2 IP last year in the minors would speak to that, but Nicholas does have real tools to be a strong bullpen options eventually.
A vertical breaking fastball with a ton of velocity, sitting in the high-90s, should help him moving forward. His other offerings aren’t awful either, but his command will continue to be what makes or breaks his professional career.
If the command can improve without a considerable dip in velocity, Nicholas should be fine, and if anything, he can offer depth in what should be a strong Pirates bullpen in 2024.
Patrick Reilly, another 2023 selection via the 5th round, slots in at 23. With these newer players, I don’t have as much information to go fully in-depth, but even MLB Pipeline compares him to a Kyle Nicholas type, so you can guess where his struggles come from.
Watching him minimally, he does struggle to keep the ball in the zone, so that will need to be his biggest improvement through the system.
Enmanuel Terrero comes in at 24, and the 2019 international signing, now 21 years of age, is starting to get real opportunities in the system.
2023 was his first in Bradenton, ending the year with a .777 OPS and 21 stolen bases, a credit to his on-base ability and above average speed.
Playing center field should be fine with his speed, although he’s only been out there with more things to work on. Much like others around him on this list, tons of time to work on things.
Switch hitting utility player Jesus Castillo rounds out the top-25, showcasing solid bat-to-ball skills on both the right and left side of the plate.
Castillo, a 2019 international signing, is pretty much all contact, seeing a 20-power tool, and he’s played every position but pitcher and catcher for Bradenton. Strength will be his biggest need, but if he can find that, his defense should warrant conversation down the line as a potential Swiss Army Knife at the big leagues.
26-30
3B/SS Jhonny Severino, OF Estuar Suero, OF Tres Gonzalez, C Omar Alfonzo, OF Bralyn Brazoban
Usually the bottom five of any system is full of guys who have ETAs that are 2027 or later, as they are usually younger guys with tons of upside, and that’s the case here for Pittsburgh.
Jhonny Severino, who came over from the Carlos Santana trade last season, kicks off the bottom five, and at 19, Severino has shown both power and fielding elements that could be fun to watch moving forward. He hasn’t played above rookie ball yet, so its unknown what he can truly become.
Outfielder Estuar Suero, another rookie ball player, comes in at 27, and like Severino, he just doesn’t have enough reps to truly know what he is. Experts say he could develop a fun speed-power combination, and with a 6-foot-5 frame and a 55-run tool, its something the 18 year old could definitely develop into.
Tres Gonzales is the only of these five to have an ETA sooner than 2027, with his coming in at 2025 and slotting in as the 28th prospect in the system.
Gonzalez is a left-handed outfielder has a good ability to just hit the baseball, showcasing good contact skills, but he doesn’t hit the baseball all that hard and hasn’t shown much power in his time in the minors.
Its always good to have high contact guys who can also field, and that’s what Gonzalez is, but I would like to see at least some power out of him to give him a higher ceiling than a back-up outfielder, but they may be all he becomes.
Catcher Omar Alfonzo is the only catcher in the top-30, and the son of 15-year veteran Eliezer Alfonzo looks to follow in his father’s footsteps.
Alfonzo has a big build, standing 6-foot-1, 180 pounds, and he does well behind the plate while also getting on-base at an impressive .380 clip. His five homers last year indicate he could develop some power, but Alfonzo has a timetable that will give him time to develop that power while also improving behind the plate as well.
And finally, Bralyn Brazoban wraps up the top-30, and as the 38th-ranked international prospect this year, the Pirates may have gotten a fun, unique player in their system.
Brazoban has shown hard contact from the left side, at least from what experts have seen, and he’s a very athletic guy and will likely put on some muscle as he continues to grow. Brazoban will likely stay in rookie ball for all of 2024, but he could be another exciting international outfielder, like Shalin Polanco, if he develops and grows into his own.
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