3-20-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
The Cubs had a bit of a surprising rise in 2023. Not to say that they were expected to be
“bad.” That certainly was not the expectation. They did manage to exceed most prognostications and in so doing, they have accelerated their “rebuild” quite a bit.
Chicago benefitted from a lot of things going well. Justin Steele & Cody Bellinger
performing like legitimate stars, the farm system performing well, and a terrific draft
really went a long way to changing how this organization as a whole is/was perceived.
The question now is just how close to being a true contender are they?
Let’s take a look at who is in the fold on the North Side.
Pitching
Justin Steele – Arguably the biggest breakout starting pitcher in all of baseball from Steele hurled 173.1 IP putting up a 16-5 record and am NL Central best 4.9 fWAR. Steele will look to repeat his success, and he is well positioned to do it. While it is worth noting that he is really a 2-pitch pitcher, throwing a FF/SL 96% of the time (62.6/33.9), the pairing is good enough to think he will be a 3+ fWAR starter in 2024.
Shota Imanaga – Imanaga is a prime offseason FA acquisition for the Cubbies. Coming
over to the Major Leagues in the shadow of fellow import, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I am
very intrigued by what Imanaga has done this Spring. In 9.2 IP Imanga has put up a
crazy 41.5% K-BB%. It must be mentioned that his 9 K appearance was versus a
HORRIBLE Oakland lineup – but his profile looks to be a bit stronger than his initial
stateside scouting report had indicated. He looks like an exciting player and his
transition to the Majors will be fun to watch.
Kyle Hendricks – Kyle Hendricks is here to limit hard contact, command his arsenal, &
pitch a bunch of innings. While he didn’t necessarily eat a ton of innings in 2022 & 2023,
he should be back to doing so in 2024. Nothing exciting here, but he is a solid rotation
piece and a veteran arm.
Jordan Wicks – 21st overall selection in the 2021 MLB draft, Wicks is set to claim a full
time rotation spot for the Cubs in 2024. Based on his debut in 2023 & his Spring thus
far, Wicks sort of has the look of a left handed Kyle Hendricks. Relies on his
changeup/four seam/sinker, but he worked a 6 pitch mix last year. Wicks should be a
safe back-end of the rotation piece, at least as safe as a young pitcher can be.
Hayden Wesneski – Wesneski was a popular breakout pick prior to 2023. He did not
break out. He was quite bad. Struggling with command and getting hit too hard when he
did find the plate, it was a bad year for Wesneski.
He is not a lock for a rotation spot, but he has had an interesting Spring in 2024. His
command has ticked up and the BB rate is down to just 2.4% in 9 IP. He is worth
watching because his sweeper is devastating. Opposing hitters hit just .140 with a .186
wOBA against the pitch, if the control takes a step forward and his fastball can play
better, he might be in line to take a big step in the right direction.
Bullpen Bullet Points
Adbert Alzolay – After stepping into the closer role in 2023 Alzolay was able to
actualize some of this prior potential. Has a devastating slider and works three different
fastball variations in. Has the look of a solid back-end piece.
Hector Neris – Neris comes over to Chicago from two successful seasons in Houston.
Has strong strikeout stuff and is one of the premier set-up men in the league.
Julian Merriweather – Big time K stuff from Merriweather. A slider that generated
45.3% whiffs and a FF that averages 98.1. Textbook set-up/closer profile.
Mark Leither Jr – Leiter had a spectacular 2023 racking up 28 holds. He is again having
a terrific Spring and should help round out this overall strong bullpen.
Hitters
Cody Bellinger – After a long wait as a free agent, Bellinger is back in the mix for the
Cubbies. 2023 saw Bellinger totally revive his career. He will look to continue this in He has pretty radically changed his game from when he was a young power hitting monster for the Dodgers. He exceeded his xwOBA by a large margin (.370 vs .327), but the rest of his profile seems to support that he should continue to produce at a good clip given his strong QoC metrics. It is a bit uncertain where he will play, 1B/OF/DH, but it seems that he will get reps at all of these spots to some degree.
Seiya Suzuki – Suzuki had a slow start to 2023, but ultimately finished off a great
sophomore season. The underlying data suggests that 2024 could be another step
forward for Suzuki too. He hits the ball hard (91.4 EV) & gets to a lot of hard contact.
Suzuki will remain a top of the order fixture in Chicago for the immediate future.
Ian Happ – Happ is a rock steady offensive player. Does not have an incredibly flashy
game, but is a solid hitter with a stellar approach. One downfall is his defensive prowess
is average to slightly below. It is hard not to like Happ as a player and he is locked into a
leadoff spot for 2024.
Michael Busch – Finally freed from captivity in Los Angeles, the baseball world will
finally get to see what Michael Busch can do. Busch was poor in his MLB opportunities
so far, but the AAA data is very encouraging. He has feasted on fastballs and puts up
great quality of contact metrics across the board. Some swing & miss against
secondaries is present, but he has a very similar player profile to a Max Muncy type of
lower BA, higher OBP, slugger. Now he just has to prove it.
Nico Hoerner – Hoerner is like Luis Arraez light with the stick. He does not hit the ball
particularly hard, does not barrel the ball often, but he makes elite contact and rarely
whiffs. On top of this, he has elite speed and plays some of the best defense at the
keystone in the entire sport. It isn’t flashy, but he is a very, very good baseball player.
Dansby Swanson – Perennially underrated, Swanson has no really flashy tools other
than his shortstop defense. Average to above tools elsewhere in his toolbox make him
capable of posting high fWAR seasons though. He is sitting firmly in his prime and
should project to bat near the middle of a surprisingly fun lineup.
Christopher Morel – The young slugger is set to get full-time at bats while manning the
hot corner in 2024. One of the more exciting players in the NLC, Morel needs to make
approach/whiff gains to make the big leap to star level. It is no guarantee that he can do
it, but the 37% whiff rate is all that is holding him back from unlocking true star upside.
Really one of the more underrated players in the entire game, not just the division.
Farmhands
Pete Crow-Armstrong – PCA looked poised to break camp with the big league CF job
until the Cubs re-upped Bellinger. PCA will open in AAA, but make no mistake, he is a
tremendous prospect. Had an underwhelming MLB debut in 2023, but his defense and
speed will give him a high floor once he secures an every day role. I personally consider
him a top 10-20 prospect in the game.
Cade Horton – The number 7 selection in 2022. Horton will most likely make his Major
League debut sometime in 2024. Horton hurled 88.1 IP across 3 levels and shoved
against all competition. His skills should translate to AAA and then to the Show.
Appears to have a #2 starter or package of skills.
Matt Shaw – Matt Shaw was drafted at 13 overall just last July. He cruised all the way to
AA and handled the minor leagues like an advanced college hitter is supposed to. He
possesses average to above-average skills across the board with a chance to get to
plus game power. It is very possible that Shaw ends up in Cubbie blue late this season.
Owen Cassie – The calling card for Cassie is grown man raw power. The downside
through the minor leagues was the common trade off of high K rates. Cassie was
something of a Spring Training standout where he displayed an improved approach and
cut his K rate down to 25%. Small sample, but this will be the key to him becoming an
everyday Major Leaguer.
Kevin Alcántara – While not exactly on the level of Oneil Cruz or Elly de La Cruz –
Alcántara nearly fits the mold checking in as a 6’6” tooled up mutant. The Jaguar is my
personal favorite Cubs prospect. With near top of the scale raw power & above-average
to plus speed, there is a lot to like here. As is typical with this kind of player there are
concerns with the hit tool/approach. In 2023 the K rate stayed at a very promising
23.8% at A+ but ballooned to 33.3% in AA.
Moises Ballesteros – Ballesteros is one of the slightly lesser heralded catcher
prospects in the game, but I believe that this changes in 2024. Making it all the way to
AA as a 19 year old, Ballesteros possesses a strong approach and makes pretty high
quality of contact, in fact he sports an impressive 90th% exit velocity (104.9) that
supports the fact that he will likely be an above-average power producer as he ages.
This type of profile might really boom very soon.
Ben Brown – Ben Brown appeared to be on the verge of making the Majors in 2023 and
then he scuffled upon reaching AAA. He possesses very good stuff but also command
issues. Chicago may be toying with moving Brown to the bullpen as he only made one
Spring Training start. He will almost certainly be a Major League player, role TBD.
This Chicago team is put together well and positioned to be a challenger in the Central.
From the outset of the season I think that Cubs have a compelling case to expect to be
in the running to be division champs. Strong line up, competent pitching staff, plenty of
bullpen juice, and one of the best farm systems in the entire league.
It will be very fun to check in on this group on a month to month basis.
Steel City Pirates 