4-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
Hey! 8-2, not too shabby huh? Your Buccos have simply played a hard 9 innings in all 10 games they’ve played, and some of the teams they’ve faced don’t have the horses to run a relay race like that. It’s why their baseline for wins should rightly be closer to .500 than some pundits decided it would be pre-season.
This is a team that should not be seen as an “easy” series. If you have a tired bullpen entering a series against the Pirates, you better make sure you have a couple names on standby that you can call on from AAA.
If you haven’t managed to get a lead against the Pirates starter, I’m not saying you should head for the charter, but I doubt BetMGM is getting a bunch of 7th inning bets on your team to come back and take it.
Long way to go and much of this could change by next week if the wrong people get injured or fall into a funk, but right now, man nobody is looking forward to playing the Pirates. Ask the O’s.
Let’s get after it.
1. Losing Waived Players
The Pirates just traded Colin Selby to the Royals for Connor Oliver, a 22-year-old lefty drafted in the 17th round in 2023. His professional stats are a single inning with the Royals’ complex league late in 2023.
This is a confusing process for fans. Many will see this as a normal trade, you know, We have this guy we’re ok moving, and we want that guy from you. From the time a player is Designated for Assignment they are immediately removed from the team’s 40-man roster and a 7 day clock starts. In that time all 29 other teams in order of winning percentage get a chance to claim the player or make a deal for the player.
These deals aren’t going to be big, in fact when they happen you’ll almost always see the player coming back be a lottery ticket, meaning super far away from touching the league.
This makes sense, because if you DFA a guy to make room on your 40-man, it stands to reason you don’t want to bring back another player you have to find room for.
Point is, the Pirates roster is not what it has been. When they DFA players now, there won’t be many who sneak through unclaimed.
This isn’t to have you pine for Selby, he wasn’t good when he got a shot, but like I told you a couple weeks ago when talking about who they have on the short list for DFA to make room, he has a big arm, and everyone thinks they can fix a big arm.
Bailey Falter would be claimed in a heartbeat, and I don’t say that to paint a picture that the club should never do it, but instead to say, when they feel they have to go that route, it’ll be the end for him as a Pirate. Alika Williams would too although he has MiLB options remaining, so the fact so many of you immediately toss out the DFA tag for a serviceable player kinda says I need to write something like this.
The days of picking up endless waiver claims and having 5-10 easy choices to ship right back out are over for a while. At worst you’ll have 1-2 spots like that. And don’t think it won’t be a factor at the trade deadline, if this team wants to add they’ll almost assuredly send out some members of this 40-man in exchange.
So, get used to little deals like this. Guys who just became low man on the totem pole on a good roster in exchange for guys who have barely gotten their career started and won’t have anything to do with the 40-man for years.
That doesn’t mean there is no chance what they got back is helpful, in fact it’s very likely the Pirates scouted a guy like Connor Oliver themselves before last year’s draft and would love to have selected him. I’ll say this, if a team makes 10 deals like this and find one or two players who one day make the 40-man roster, hey, they’ve done well.
2. Interchangeable
The Pirates have thrown out myriad lineups and some have really generated some anger when they were posted. The standard tripe is to claim “The Pirates are trying to lose this one” or “This is the game they’re willing to lose”, and this year, honestly, I just don’t think they feel that way.
I can honestly say the players don’t, there isn’t a member of this 26-man who they don’t to some degree believe in this year, and I’m not just saying so because they managed to win every time they put out one of these “pathetic” lineups.
Early on you’ll recall I referred to this lineup as a “Yahtzee Roster”, meaning with the exception of Rowdy Tellez, I truly think you could just put 9 names in a cup, roll them out and probably have it come out a productive lineup. Derek Shelton clearly agrees, because he has shown very little deference to veterans like Cutch who he’s sat multiple times now. He’s pushed Henry Davis to the 9 spot. He’s used last minute additions to the roster to pitch a vital late inning opportunity with just as much confidence as his 10.5 million dollar lefty.
They don’t have players here who they feel don’t belong and fans would do well to understand that because you’re not going to stop seeing it. The team wants to keep everyone involved, and in some cases, they want to keep some players hungry.
You as a fan, may have been upset to see Andrew McCutchen benched for the second two games of the Home Opening Series, but to me that says this isn’t about emotions, or selling tickets, or reaching milestones, or veteran respect, it’s about winning and who’s best to get that W today.
I just can’t be mad about that thought process or execution.
Again, it’s much easier to “sell” when it’s working, there will certainly be times when it doesn’t, but I like it more for what is says about the Coach’s decisions and where they’re coming from than the results.
To be a Pittsburgh Pirate in 2024, you have to have value. If you’re here, they trust you can do the job you’re here to do, not to be hidden or avoided. That hasn’t happened under Cherington before this season.
Things like this gel a locker room. Instead of guys looking around and seeing the “stars” sitting and sulking through the contest taking their licks, these players look around and wonder who today’s “stars” will be.
Look no further than this. The Pirates have 5 saves this year, and they’ve gotten them from 5 different players.
Bottom line, if you’re here, they believe in you, and until someone shows them they aren’t deserving of that belief, you’re going to play.
Not to steal an internet meme here, but maybe let’s just let Derek cook, he’s served up nothing but edible creations so far.
3. Marco is Just Being Marco
I wrote this way back in January about Marco Gonzales in 5 Thoughts…
“After a fledgling start in St. Louis, he was traded to Seattle and that’s where he became a solid performer. From 2018 through 2022 Marco would start 131 games and deliver 765.2 innings, including being the opening day starter for the Mariners 4 times. Last year there was real fear he’d just never be right again, and when Marco is right, well, you won’t see him as a “5” or whatever.”
I think this is what we’ll see play out.
Fans here saw that two teams were willing to pay him to play elsewhere, you know like the famous Billy Beane to David Justice scene from Money Ball, and assumed he was going to be an epic failure or at best a stop gap until Skenes was called up.
Again, if Marco is healthy, I have every expectation he’ll be a key contributor for this club. His stuff is repeatable, he knows what he wants to do with every pitch and isn’t relying on Henry Davis or whomever is catching him to change his mind. He changes speeds, he keeps hitters guessing so well he sneaks that 91-92 MPH heater right past them in the zone.
He’ll have poor outings too, look, he’s not an ace, but for the most part, he’s going to exit games with the Pirates having a chance to win and folks that’s a starting rotation member that matters.
I could have just as easily written this about Martin Perez. I think it’s going to become pretty clear over the course of this month that the Pirates knew what they were doing with this rotation, a whole lot more than most of us gave them credit for. Even if it’s luck, well, they still had to place the bet right?
The funny thing is, they’ve brought in veteran left handed pitching every offseason Cherington has been here, and they’ve yet to really miss on any of them. Even way over the hill Rich Hill did better than almost everyone assumed while in Pittsburgh. Anderson, Quintana, I mean the Pirates have kinda proven they at the very least know what they want to work with and how to help them succeed with this club.
I for one won’t begrudge them one ounce of credit just because they were smart enough to take a guy other teams didn’t want to use, have them pay for most of his services and laugh all the way to the win column. He has a 15 million dollar option for next season and the assumption remains that the Pirates will decline it, but if he pitches the way he can, man, I’d hope they’d at least consider it, because while they have 3 lefties right now, as the season ends we’ll be back on Solometo watch for our next, might make sense to keep one you don’t have to bid for.
Long way to go, lots of baseball left to prove anything out, but keep it in mind, he’s the only veteran starter not named Mitch Keller who’s technically got a contract for 2025, and he just might be a smart keep.
4. It’s Up to Oneil Cruz AND His Teammates to Get Him Seeing More Pitches to Hit
Oneil Cruz has barely seen more than 2 or 3 pitches he could damage in any given game so far this season. Sure, he’s facing a ton of lefties and that presents it’s own set of challenges for the hulking short stop, but he’s also been actively pitched around aggressively.
He’s done well to make the most of what he’s gotten, and he’s expanded his zone so he had the opportunity. 14 hits in 42 ABs for a .333 average isn’t anything to sneeze at for a power hitter with a strikeout profile.
And he has struck out 15 times vs only 2 walks and I’m here to tell you he’s got to find a way to take even more walks. That ratio needs to be closer.
Opposition pitchers will take Oneil slapping a single to left off a down and away changeup all day long. First, he’s not always going to make contact, and second, it limits his damage, just like walking him would.
The Pirates are doing ok at scoring runs, they’ve even done well in 2 out situations, but until the rest of the team starts making teams pay for taking a pass on pitching to Cruz, he’s going to have no choice but to wait for a mistake or hit a good pitch. He’s capable of both, but if we’re hoping to see 30+ homeruns from him, he’s going to need to have opposing pitchers that know Reynolds, Hayes, whomever are going to bring him around to score a hell of a lot more.
Again, Cruz is doing well and dealing with the way he’s being pitched but frustration builds.
Believe it or not, just yesterday Cruz passed his number of plate appearances for 2023, and honestly while he’s struck out more and walked less, he’s actually been more productive.
The main point here is Oneil is dealing with something most players with crazy power do, he’s seeing that learning to be patient, learning to identify pitches, covering the plate, seeing both arm side offerings, well, those things are just the beginning of what you have to do to become a player you consider a super star. Those players have to learn how to create damage on less than ideal pitches and that’s why Cruz is so exciting. He does that almost by accident as it is.
A little help from his friends could help see a lot more of the pitches he can destroy.
5. Third Base Coaching
Mike Rabelo is the Pirates Third Base Coach and Field Coordinator. Much like Joey Cora before him, when a guy is thrown out at home he sucks, and when he holds a guy up, he sucks and when they score nobody mentions him unless he was putting up the stop sign and the player ran through it and scores, then he’d suck for that too.
In many ways, being a third base coach is like being President of the United States, no matter what you do, half the people hate you and if you screw up, make it more like three quarters.
As with Joey before him, he’s coaching under the overriding philosophy of the team which is stated to be “Aggressive”.
Now, what that’s supposed to mean is if it’s 50/50 that a guy could make it or it would take a near perfect throw to get the runner, it’s supposed to be a send. Essentially, the Pirates think they’ll get more runs by pushing the envelope than they would if they only tried to score when it was obvious.
In theory, I totally get that, in practice, I think Rabelo probably misjudges this a bit too often on both sides. Really, most every third base coach does.
So, a couple things in Rabelo’s defense here before I get into a couple things that I feel go against him and the team’s philosophy as a whole.
- He’s also the field coordinator, so there are probably plenty of people who blame him for errors too. But what it really means is he’ll individually work with guys on technique, identifying the right play situationally, positioning based on range capabilities and hitter tendencies and vocally, he’s given a ton of credit for Henry Davis’ maturation as a catcher because of direct work he did with Rabelo and others all off season.
- He doesn’t often allow mistakes to change his ethos over there. That’s not to say he’s never gun shy after a couple plays at the plate going against the Pirates, but he pushes through it most of the time.
Now for some of the bad…
- The Pirates philosophy doesn’t allow for situational differences. Meaning if that 50/50 situation crops up in the 8th down 1, the thought is he should send. So this is more team than Rabelo, but he’s still the one deciding it’s 50/50, so I can’t say he has no control or judgement here.
- I don’t get the impression that he does a great job of seeing the whole play. For example, in Sunday’s contest he sent Jared Triolo who was running from first base on an Oneil Cruz double. It was clear Triolo felt he needed to hold up a bit just in case that ball got caught, and it’s not like Mullins hadn’t made several great plays in the series already, but Rabelo sent Jared as though he’d been chugging full bore from first and he got nabbed at the plate by a country mile. It still took a good relay and initial throw, I could even call it 50/50, but I couldn’t help but feel Mike missed that Jared held up a bit.
You won’t find a third base coach in MLB that fans think is doing a wonderful job. Again, like POTUS, the gig just isn’t set up for being adored. It’s a visible spot, arguably more than even the Manager, but it’s not a place where you’re going to win a lot of hearts and minds.
More than anything, it’s a position that would be filled should he be fired, by another guy tasked with making all the same judgements, and all the same ethos, along with the simple hope this guy would see it more right, more often. The benefit to the team may be miniscule, and given his other duties, it may even be a detriment.
That’s not to paint a picture that I’m all in on Rabelo and how dare you even suggest they move on from him, it’s just to say, I think the decisions have to be much more black and white to see them move on in season, and if it costs them a division or playoff spot, well, let’s just say there will be about 30 things I can list off that caused it before I get to Rabelo sending a guy or holding a guy here and there.
Steel City Pirates 