Amidst offensive struggles, Oneil Cruz is the most notable

4-22-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

Heading into 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates – and their expectations – were at heights we haven’t seen in some time.

On paper, this is a team that has talent – from the extended Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller, to the more youthful Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Jared Triolo, among others.

For a team like the Pirates though, they cannot take the next step in being a competitive baseball team until some of those young guys also take the next step, and Oneil Cruz, a player many have penned with superstar potential, is the most notable.

Cruz has become a nationally recognized player in his young career, from his electric exit velocities to being an enigma at shortstop as a 6-foot-7 power hitting beast. When Cruz is on, it is special to watch, but so far in 2024, we have only gotten the crumbs of what Cruz can be and what he can do.

Losing 2023 was HUGE for Cruz and the Pirates, especially when it comes to his development, as 2024 is slated to be his first full campaign as a member of the big league roster. So far, it hasn’t been what Cruz has wanted.

In 90 ABs, Cruz is slashing .233/.281/.356/.637 with 3 homers, so not the start Cruz or the Pirates were hoping for and what is more alarming is the advanced metrics for Cruz.

Cruz is sitting at a 38.5 percent strikeout rate, which is in the first percentile in all of baseball, and a ton of that can be attributed to his 33.8 percent chase rate and 30.7 percent whiff rate. Cruz is missing the ball a ton, and it doesn’t help that he isn’t registering many walks either, pacing at a 6.3 percent rate.

When Cruz does connect though, his average exit velocity of 91.6mph and hard hit percentage of 49.1 percent suggest good things, but he has to make contact more often than not, and we just aren’t seeing that so far.

These aren’t new issues for Cruz either, who also ranked in the bottom five percentile in his 361 plate appearances in 2022 in whiff and strikeout rate, but in that season, he was getting on base via walks almost eight percent of the time, a 1.5 percent increase from his production thus far.

Cruz’s defensive struggles haven’t helped his confidence much either, sitting at a -3 OAA with five errors and a .935 fielding percentage, raising more questions about his longterm development at the shortstop position, questions fans and staff alike wished to answer last year.

His struggles in specific areas will also likely be things he struggles with throughout his career – those being the chase rate, whiff rate and strikeouts, but if he can find ways to get on-base more often and improve contact, good things will come, because he is just that special.

The importance of his development cannot be understated either when it comes to overall team success, seeing as the team is banking on Cruz to be the leader of the young players they want to see take those next steps.

In a way, this kind of slump could workout for Cruz, as he’s learning what offerings he’ll see from opposing pitchers and what it looks like at his lowest point of performance, because at this point, the only way the arrow can go for Cruz’s performance is up, and once it goes up, wins will more likely follow from the team itself.

Cruz is learning right now, and that’s ok, and he’ll continue to get every look he can because the team needs him to, and although the sample size is small, his struggles are well documented. If he can fix some things, which he fully capable of doing, the Pirates will be better off, if not, then that’s a completely different conversation for another day.

He’ll continue to be in the spotlight as the season progresses, but keep watching Cruz and what adjustments he makes along the way, because at the end of the day, he’s a young player with a ton to learn, but you can expect that his talent will eventually take over.