Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – A Broken Record

4-29-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Big one this week and I think some of these subjects are painful to talk about, but you can handle it. I’ve never felt I was writing for everyone, I’m writing for people that want to think their way through the game of baseball. The front office stuff, the procedural stuff, the player promotion and demotion process, all of it.

If you like it, great, if you don’t, hey, I’m only wasting my time.

As Al Bundy said, Let’s Rock.

1. Nick Gonzales Promotion Talk

This is not an ideal situation.

The Pirates need an offensive spark and right now, Nick Gonzales is seeing the ball and hitting it hard. Hey, call him up right?

Well, maybe. Let’s talk it through.

Point 1: Nick is hitting, he’s even cut down his K rate a bit, but he’s still struggling with offspeed pitches. This is and was his issue as an MLB hitter. I find it highly likely he is figured out quickly and once you call him up, you’re obligated to play him for a stretch.

Point 2: Calling him up is still not a bad idea. He has a scouting report from his cup of coffee in 2023, but he’s also seeing the baseball, so the way the offense is going, it might be nice to get a guy who can at least hit fastballs, as opposed to won’t hit anything. They need that spark, and hungry people can’t turn away a hamburger because they don’t like mustard.

Point 3: There isn’t really a logical place to play him aside from second base or DH. One sits Triolo (And Alika Williams too for what it’s worth) and one sits Cutch who’s already sitting quite a bit. They’ve been using Olivares as a right handed DH when Cutch sits and he’d likely be the corresponding move for Gonzales, so, it figures he could get some ABs there. Bottom line, if he comes up you’re looking for 20-25 ABs a week or you simply can’t do that. Not to do simple math for you, but to really point out what that is, well it’s 6 starts a week with 4 ABs average per game. This doesn’t have to last more than a month, but if he comes up, he certainly won’t just sit, this isn’t Canaan Smith-Njigba, at least not yet.

Point 4: It’s ok to let Triolo and Williams take a few less at bats for a month. First off, Williams is already settled in as a bench/backup role player and he’s done so well there I would barely change a thing. So it’s really Triolo who would take a reduction. Again, I’d try to split that with some DH reps for Nick but it won’t be the regular work he’s been getting and while he isn’t some All Star, he’s been pretty productive for a rookie and played some really good second base after early hiccups. It has to be ok though, again, this team needs a spark and Jared while steady, average, still young, well, he’s gotten a solid month now, you can’t be afraid to try something, or you never try anything. It’s not like we’re knocking Corey Seager out of the lineup cause he’s cold.

Listen, those are the arguments for or against. I personally think I’d make the call, see if you can get a couple good weeks out of him, hope for more than that, but try something. Show the room you can swap out hitters just as easy as you do relievers.

If this team really believes in Nick Gonzales’ bat, I suggest they look longer term and start working him at a position of need like corner outfielder or first base. Even if he’s better than Triolo, and despite Termarr Johnson’s start to the season, he and Cheng are going to come and we can’t expect them all to drink from the 2B watering hole.

2. Oneil Cruz

Without looking, what would you guess is the most homeruns Oneil Cruz has ever hit in a season of professional baseball?

Any guesses? 35? I mean he played in Greensboro and Bradenton right?

How about 28 between AAA and MLB in 2022. 17 of those were at the Big League level where he only had 361 plate appearances. He hit 17 in 2021 between AA and AAA, but Cruz has really been a guy who hits for average. Just in his time with Pittsburgh, Low A in 2018 .286, Rookie ball, High A and AA in 2019 .298, 2021 in AA and AAA .310.

The Pirates are interested in his power potential and they’ve trained him as such to the detriment of his average. I’m not even telling you they’re wrong, he has 30 homerun power in this league. Right now, he’s doing neither.

This is a guy who is coming off a season ending injury, with all of 40 plate appearances last year before it happened. He’s come back rusty, a bit slower than he was and maybe a bit tentative to push the issue. A traditionally good low ball hitter, he doesn’t seem to want to push the ankle to allow himself to get under a ball like that the way he had become known for.

I am seeing some things that indicate he’s finding it a bit, but I’m not sure he’s poised to find the hitter many of us had hoped and dare I say expected. At least not quickly. I mean…

We aren’t talking about much here. I’m not sure why there’s no measurement for his Arm strength but you can see, while not accurate, it’s plenty strong. Barrel % is down considerably and that of course would lower Expected Slugging.

Really feels to me like he’s just not comfortable and hitting from a much more defensive mindset than he has in the past.

The power this kid has is incredible, but historically it hasn’t translated to a ton of homeruns, it’s very possible by the time he’s done developing he doesn’t look anything like that high average hitting kid who came up, he may turn into a slugger who never hits over .250 in his career.

The truth is, this team has to find out and work through it with him and he’s going to get every opportunity to do so.

If you take all of his MLB experience and pile it together it’s very close to a complete season of at bats. If he winds up hitting 22 homeruns with a .238 average and a .727 OPS, he’s a good player. But you’re lying to yourself if you sit here pretending you don’t want and expect more. Those numbers are ok to start a career, but they’re a far cry from transformative, and this team needs him to be a lot closer to that when he’s all the way cooked.

That won’t come without working through everything he’s working through. Derek Shelton mentioned his ankle was bugging him a bit the other day and then they used him as a pinch hitter. Hey, glad he’s ok enough to do it. But if the ankle is an issue, he needs to DH 2 or 3 times a week and see if the reduced defensive responsibilities help him focus on and use his energy toward the bat.

Hey, maybe that would help out with point number 1! Are we allowed to think of like multiple things they could do to help this offense aside from firing one figurehead?

3. Love Hurts…

As most of you know, I’ve never been on the extend David Bednar bandwagon. At best, I’ve suggested retaining him for an extra year of his free agency but I’d hate to be locked in beyond that.

The funny thing is, I’m not even saying this because of how he’s performing right now, in fact, I honestly think he’ll bounce right back and have a relatively strong season. Reason being, I’m not seeing a stuff issue, I’m seeing a command issue and David can work through that, and I believe he will.

I also believe at age 29 closers aren’t usually on the way up. So I maintain, if and when the Pirates want to extend David Bednar, it either needs to be really short, or his pay needs to reflect a relief pitcher more than an elite closer, I simply don’t believe he’ll be one past the age of 33 and they already have him locked up through arbitration for the next two seasons.

This year he agreed to a salary of 4.5 million avoiding arbitration and he has 2 more years. If he has a mediocre season in 2024, he’ll still get a probable raise in arbitration up to as much as 6, if he’s really good and rebounds fully, he could get as much as 7.

Trading David if he’s really rolling would be wholly unpopular, but you might actually get something worth having in return. Trading David when he isn’t playing well or after a poor season and you probably don’t get anything worth worrying about.

Then you have to start to ask yourself, how much do I want to pay for a guy who just delivered an underwhelming season? There is no great path here aside from David Bednar looking like a can’t miss closer.

Clearly, he’s not off to the start he’d need to be for that. If he’s clean from here on out, it’ll be July or August before some snide butt hole online can’t say “his ERA is over 4.00, he’s overrated and you protect him cause he’s a Yinzer”. After you avoid responding to that and and stitch your tongue back in your mouth after biting it off, you can go back to realizing they kinda aren’t wrong, because in arbitration believe me it’ll come up.

He could continue to struggle too and then the decision goes from Nutting was too cheap to keep him to Nutting values his community outreach more than what he does on the field.

David Bednar’s performance this year early on isn’t just eye opening for a team that no doubt had already engaged in extension talk but it should be for you too. Hometown players have expiration dates too, and almost all closers fail to pitch like top of the line closers for 7 year stretches.

Get ready to be uncomfortable, because it will be almost no matter what happens. It could be as simple as he pitches here on arbitration contracts for 2 more years then leaves in free agency. No matter what, some of you aren’t going to like it, but erase the IC Light chugging persona and look at the player, look at the history of the role and tell me you honestly can’t see this marriage ending long before he hangs up the spikes.

4. Henry Needs a Reset

Henry Davis is a good baseball player, but he’s to the point where hearing that or thinking that must almost dig at him. When that happens, it’s usually time to send them to a place where they can remember it by way of experiencing it again.

I’m not going to spend a lot of energy here fending off those who think he was a bad pick or a bust or whatever, suffice to say, I think it’s far too early in his career to pretend we know what he is yet. If you choose the Pirates Tank is perpetually just about on E side of the fence to land on, ok, that’s your right. You could obviously be right too, I just don’t feel the need to argue it out.

I think he’ll likely go back to AAA when Grandal is deemed healthy and recapture his timing, remember how to hit fastballs sans the weight of learning how to manage a Major League staff. Plenty of time to learn about that when he comes back up.

I truly feel like we saw this play out with Endy Rodriguez last year. The focus is so lasered on the defense these kids struggle to remember they have to face Major League pitching all of the sudden.

Remember, Henry didn’t even have to do this at the AAA level last year, and it’s to his credit he’s taken such a dramatic jump as a catcher in such a short time, but the way the bat is effecting him, isn’t healthy for a kid. Especially not one you’re depending on.

Regardless of how you think he’ll turn out in his career, it’s hard to deny this has to be the next step with him.

He won’t even be the first 1:1 sent down this year, it’s not the end of the world. He’ll be back and so will the fandom some of you abandoned already.

5. Accountability Never Comes Early

When an owner makes a decision to fire then hire a new GM. Well, I should say an owner who isn’t planning on seeing his investment level as the main issue anyway, if that guy makes the decision to change his regime, well, he or she isn’t going to imagine said hire or hires are going to work miracles.

If that owner is sold on a plan that gets them a relevant baseball team with a healthy system in half a decade or so, you know, one that gives you a shot at having your team at least playing competitive baseball for a nice stretch of years, and you finally get to the first potential stop on the line where some fruit might be showing itself, you probably aren’t considering a change.

Another GM could come in and work on top of what Ben Cherington has put together, but with that would come other changes, maybe even a different direction. No, when an owner like that hires a GM, they see it through, they let the entire dream cycle play out and at best pressure changes to be made beneath them.

Reality is though, as hot as you want Ben Cherington’s seat to be, it’s not even warm. And it won’t be if they fail to improve this year.

I could be completely guessing, I’m not, but I could be and even then you’d have the evidence of how the last regime was given from 2007 into the new decade. He was given two epic collapses that prevented killing that ugly streak of losing seasons. He was given 3 years with all the talent he managed to acquire and the closest equivalent to Bob Nutting’s top end budget and finally he was given 3 full seasons to try to pull his dangling team back from over the cliff. THEN, Bob Nutting finally paid money to fire his front office, manager and most of the staff.

Scream year 5 all you want, as frustrating as it is, you’re watching what was sold, agreed upon and set into motion.

The accountability you seek is going to have to come at the coaching level long before it touches this GM and I mean, we’re all that can ever hold Nutting accountable, and even then, he’ll maybe wear a different mask but still be the same person.

The bottom line, the On Field manager won’t be replaced because he has followed orders. The GM won’t be replaced because his boss isn’t a baseball guy and has no idea what he’s overseeing, and they haven’t reached a point where winning anything meaningful would have been expected.

Listen to Cherington himself as he discusses how he sees his team. On his 93.7 The Fan radio show he referenced “the majority” of players aren’t playing to those projections yet.

These projections, are exactly why they allowed 20-8 to become a distant memory, because they didn’t project that team to win. This one, they’ve specifically told you they expect and want to compete. With that comes projection and at 1 game under .500, well, trust me, they aren’t panicking, certainly not getting ready to move on and start over this November.

At best you’ll get some coaching changes this offseason, I’d have to see something insane to think Shelton or Marin would be included in that. For one thing, everyone hates a manager on a losing team, many of us didn’t like Clint Hurdle until they won and stopped when they did and he might be the nicest man in America. Kinda smart too.

Old school managers have either gotten with the program or they look like Tony LaRussa trying to coach a White Sox team that was supposed to be surging toward a championship into a quick turn rebuild.

You’ll attribute Shelton’s decisions to his “gut” being bad, and he’ll point to his list of “available arms” and splits for pinch hitters. His boss knows where the calls come from, and so do most of you, regardless of whether you want to accept it or not.

That’s not to say he’ll never meet his proverbial maker, he will, but it’ll be when the GM gives him a team he has “projected” as winning 90 games and Shelton pulls in the train with 84 and they miss the playoffs. Not a year where 500-ish is every bit where they think they’ll land.

When accountability comes, it’ll be too late, and you can see why.

Sure would be nice if we could stop murders instead of solving them I believe my hero Columbo once said to a “psychic” killer.