5-8-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X
In a new monthly piece, brought to you by your’s truly, I’ll be taking a look at ten players in the organization, five who are up, playing good baseball and five who are down, playing on the wrong side of those gruesome baseball Gods.
With the minor league schedule starting later than the MLB schedule, I wanted to wait just a bit longer for the minor leagues to get deeper into their season before debuting this piece, but here we are, so let’s get right into it.
Who’s Up?
Connor Joe
It is quite hard to start the list of the guys who are playing up and not include Connor Joe to begin the 2024 season.
Joe is now 104 at-bats into the season, and his .801 OPS leads the team still as he has been one of the their best offensive options to begin the year.
Another reason why Joe is so important is his versatility, both offensively and defensively, and we’ve seen that quite a bit as well, as Joe has played first base, both corner outfield spots and even been a designated hitter, thriving especially as a pinch hitter late in ballgames, as he is hitting above .300 in the sixth-eighth innings of ballgames.
Joe is hitting .283 over his last 15 games, so he is showing no signs of slowing down, you just hope the rest of the offense can continue to take small steps forward to catching up to his production.
Martin Perez
I was a huge fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates acquiring Martin Perez in the off-season, I even predicted the signing in my off-season wishlist on Locked On Pirates, and so far, the acquisition seems to be paying off for both Perez and the Pirates.
Through seven starts, Perez has a 3.15 ERA over 40.0 IP, while sporting a 1.38 WHIP and 31 strikeouts, which equates to about a 6.98 K/9, his highest total since his strong 2022 campaign.
Perez is also sporting the second lowest HR/9 of his career so far at 0.45 and he is filling the zone more than ever with a career high .660 strike percentage.
What is most impressive from Perez’s start though is that he has only went 5 or less innings twice thus far, his first start versus Miami and April 21 versus Boston, and he hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start this season.
Once again, it seems like the Pirates acquired a strong, veteran left-handed pitcher via free agency, and we’ll see if Perez can continue to be strong on the mound as the season progresses.
Oneil Cruz
You may be asking yourself how Oneil Cruz makes the players playing up list, but hear me out.
Yes, I know Cruz is among the league leaders in strikeouts right now with 50, but lately, and well, slowly, he’s been getting back to the player we’ve all wanted to see him become, a power hitting lefty who strikes fear into opposing pitchers.
Over his last 15 games, Cruz is batting .298 with two home runs and six RBIs, and although that average number dips to a .241 over his past 30, his advanced metrics suggest his strong play as of late should be here to stay.
Cruz’s average exit velocity and hard hit percentage are in the 88th percentile or higher, and while his whiff, chase and strikeout rates are low, his xSLG is above average at .397, so if Cruz can get a hold of the ball, which we have seen him do as of late, expect some of those bad numbers to come down and the numbers he’s usually good in continue to rise.
Jared Jones
Jared Jones is up and well, yea, duh, of course he is.
Jones has been electric since debuting in Miami earlier this year and he hasn’t slowed down, striking out 52 batters across 41.0 IP while sporting a 2.63 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, so yea, the rookie is doing just fine.
In particular, we’ve been able to see Jones adjust on the fly and attack opposing hitters with force, much like we saw in his outing versus the Giants, when he allowed three earned but managed to keep the game in reach for the Pirates no matter what.
Statcast analytics also love Jones, who ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in five different areas, including chase rate and strikeout rate. His xBA and xERA are also high metrics as well, and when you only major issue is giving up a solo shot every now and then, not only will that please Jones and the team, but the fans as well.
Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales is the first minor league player featured on Five-Up, Five-Down, and for good reason.
Gonzales was placed in AAA to begin the season with the log jam of middle infielders the Pirates have at their disposal, but Gonzales has taken every opportunity in Indianapolis and absolutely nailed it thus far.
Through 114 ABs, Gonzales has a 1.018 OPS, three homers and 17 RBIs, and what might even be more important than all of that is his strikeout numbers being way down to what we’ve seen in the past, currently sitting at 22, or a strikeout about every five at-bats.
In 377 ABs with Indianapolis last season, Gonzales had 27 doubles. Already in 2024, Gonzales had 14, showing a willingness to hit the long ball but also spray the ball to all parts of the field, something the Pirates saw he had the ability to do when they drafted him in the first round out of New Mexico State.
It is early in the season, but Gonzales is on pace to crush all of his minor league career highs and should be a candidate at some point for a call-up.
Who’s Down?
Henry Davis
As I mentioned with Connor Joe being on the up part of this piece, it is hard to start the down part without former first overall pick Henry Davis.
Davis started the 2024 campaign as the team’s starting catcher, and all off-season we heard about his defensive shortcomings, that to be quite honest just flat out don’t exist as much as you might think they do, but most of his struggles have come at the plate so far.
Before being optioned to AAA recently, Davis had a .486 OPS in 68 ABs for the Pirates, and in his last seven games with the team, his slugging was a .125, so the time for him to go back down to Indianapolis was just a matter of time, especially as the team waited for Yasmani Grandal to be healthy enough to come up.
For Davis, I think the option was the right decision, mainly so he can prove to himself that he can hit the baseball, and hit it hard, again, while also learning how to push the ball to all parts of the field, something he brutally struggled with to begin 2024 and some parts of the last season.
Don’t be surprised if Davis is down in AAA for quite awhile, sometimes that second call-up is more difficult than the first because the Pirates won’t want to send him down again. Davis, and the team, know what he needs to work on, just give it time to play its course.
Edward Olivares
Edward Olivares was another off-season acquisition for the Pirates, and I was quite excited for his arrival, seeing as his xHR analytics suggested plus-power out of the outfielder.
We saw that on display early in the season, we all remember the pinch hit homer on Opening Day I’m sure, but he has slowed down considerably, even factoring in his grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Pirates on Monday versus the Angels.
Before yesterday, Olivares had not had an extra-base hit since April 9, and in his past 15 games, his slugging is a .240, a number you just can’t accept when you have a multitude of outfielding options are your disposal, including the previously mentioned Connor Joe.
Olivares is also not the strongest defender either, so the bat has to be there for him to stick in the lineup more often than not, and I would like to note to that point that he has been a DH in seven of his 23 games.
Olivares has the power potential to be a strong fourth outfield option for the Pirates, he just has to tap into it more, but if he continues to give sluggish numbers, he may end up being an option candidate at some point.
David Bednar
David Bednar is a household name in the city of Pittsburgh at this point, seeing as the Mars native is a two-time All-Star and one of the best closers in baseball when his stuff is at it’s best. One big problem though, his stuff hasn’t been at it’s best.
Bednar’s ERA is a 9.69 over 13.0 IP, a number that will surely come down with time, but a number that is still a massive concern. Factor in that Bednar’s Spring Training, or lack thereof, was short, and he was basically having his own version of a pre-season in the month of April.
All that aside though, Bednar’s struggles to begin 2024 are well documented, having blown three saves in nine opportunities while also allowing his highest batting average against(.268) since the COVID-19 shortened season. His HR/9 is also the highest its been since his debut season in 2019, so its clear Bednar just hasn’t been himself to at least begin the campaign.
Now, Bednar has only allowed three earned runs in his past four outing, but he has to continue to bring that ERA down while keeping the ball in the park, and thankfully the Pirates have had other strong bullpen options to make up for the star closer’s shortcomings to begin 2024.
Termarr Johnson
The second minor leaguer to be mentioned is Termarr Johnson, and right now, he’s on the wrong side of the list.
Johnson is the Pirates highest rated position prospect in the system, and me mentioning he’s down does not mean he is bust material, it just means he’s been slow out of the gate to begin 2024.
Johnson has been in Greensboro, a place notorious for making even the most average or below average minor league hitters look amazing, all 2024 thus far, but even he hasn’t seen the success he’d like to see at that level.
Through 80 ABs, Johnson has a .188 average, only one home run and his OPS is a .646, which doesn’t even sniff his .860 OPS number from 2023.
Again, it’s early in the campaign for Johnson and the likelihood that he receives a call-up this year is virtually zero, but it is important to analyze how he is doing seeing as he is one of the most highly touted prospects not only in the system, but in all of baseball, and right now, he can only go up from where he’s started to begin 2024.
Jack Suwinski
Jack Suwinski is apart of the young group the Pirates wanted to see take the next step in 2024, but 2024 hasn’t been kind to Suwinski just yet.
In 102 ABs, Suwinski has a .536 OPS and only two homers, so we haven’t seen the light tower power erupt from a winter slumber just yet for the power-hitting lefty.
Suwinski is your modern day three common outcomes player, he’s likely going to hit a home run, strikeout or walk in any given at-bat, and modern baseball is seeing more and more of these players everyday, and although a may seem like a death sentence for a player, it isn’t, i.e. Kyle Schwarber.
A big component to Suwinski’s struggles can be derived from consistent playing time as well, seeing as he was almost invisible to begin the campaign as the Pirates faced lefty after lefty, so getting Suwinski consistent playing time, which is sometimes hard to ask for when Derek Shelton tinkers with the lineup so often, could be the key to getting out of the early slump he’s been in to begin 2024.
April/First Week of May MVP – Jared Jones
Jared Jones was electric to begin his MLB career, and his impressive start wasn’t only on the radar of Pirates fans, but baseball fans everywhere.
Jones broke multiple Pirates franchise records in April while also joining some elite company in MLB history with the strikeout and innings totals he was able to rack up, and if his pace continues, which he has shown no reason that it won’t, he could be in the Rookie of the Year conversation in the National League alongside Yoshinobu Yamamota and Shoto Imanaga.
Jones has also set the bar quite high for other young pitchers coming up through the system, including Paul Skenes, who many expect to debut any day now, but Jones has given the Pirates another electric arm in the rotation, a rotation that has played very well to begin the season and will only get better as the season progression, and Jones will continue to be a large part of that.
Steel City Pirates 