Series Preview: Cubs (22-16) at Pirates (17-21)

5-10-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

We waited for not even 9 months but the day has nearly arrived: Skenes Day! That’s right, 2023 first overall draft pick, Paul Skenes, will make his MLB debut on Saturday to a likely PACKED PNC Park and face division rival Chicago Cubs.

This is a matchup of two elite pitching staffs against two faltering offenses as the teams rank 24^th and 29^th in wRC+ over the past two weeks for offense but each have a top ten rotational ERA over that same span (3^rd and 9^th, respectively).

5/10
Cubs – Javier Assad (R/R) – 3-0, 38 IP, 1,66 ERA, 31 Ks/12 walks, 1.66 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R/R) – 2-3, 41 IP, 2.63 ERA, 52 Ks/5 walks, 0.78 WHIP

5/11
Cubs – Justin Steele (L/L) – 0-0, 9.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 8 Ks/2 walks, 0.86 WHIP
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R/R) – (AAA) 0-0, 27.1 IP, 45 Ks/8 walks, 0.91 WHIP

5/12
Cubs – TBD
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R/R) –3-3, 49 IP, 4.41 ERA, 44 Ks/16 walks, 1.33WHIP

Cubs:
Patrick Wisdom – While the offense overall has been struggling, Wisdom has been a rare constant in the lineup. Over the past two weeks, he has posted a .313/.450/.625 line with more walks than strikeouts (4:3) while going 2-for-2 on stolen base attempts. No one in the Cubs lineup has been more locked in than Wisdom.

Pirates:
Oneil Cruz – After a sluggish start, we are starting to see some better results with the bat from Cruz with hits in 12 of his last 13 starts. Since April 22, Cruz is batting .327 and slugging .510 while posting a 144 wRC+ in that stretch.

Cubs:
Dansby Swanson – After posting a solid but unspectacular .744 OPS in his first season on south side, Swanson has been struggling to heat up with the bat this year. He currently has a .626 OPS and is mired in a 2-for-29 slump while striking out 34.5% in that time.

Pirates:
Ke’Bryan Hayes – Ke has been struggling over the past few weeks as his biggest asset in his exit velocity has plummeted (84.4MPH since April 30) as he is stuck in his own 2-for-29 slump. In the past 7 games, he has a -28 wRC+ and managed just one extra base hit. Given that he is a key part in the top of the order, you have to hope he turns things around sooner than later.

Key Injuries

Cubs:
Seiya Suzuki (Right Oblique Strain) – With recent returns from injury by ace pitcher Justin Steele and former MVP Cody Bellinger, Suzuki remains the one most missed for this team, going down with an oblique strain following the Cubs game on April 14. He was sent on a rehab assignment to Iowa on Wednesday with the potential to return to the club this weekend.

Pirates:
No New Injuries

Who To Watch

Pitching – The Cubs rank 3^rd overall in MLB for rotation ERA (3.07) and WAR (4.1). Taillon hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his 4 starts. Shota Imanaga – whom we’re missing this weekend – is building a case for Rookie of the Year with a 1.08 ERA and dazzling 5-0 record while Assad and Steele are each mowing down hitters. Even the lesser known Hayden Wesneski, the only member of the rotation currently with a mark in the loss column, has a 1.59 ERA over 22.2 innings pitched to date. It’s a strong, if likely overperforming, rotation which will likely present a challenge for the Bucs this weekend.

Pirates:
Paul Skenes – This one is a no-brainer. Skenes is making his MLB debut on Saturday afternoon and it is going to be a spectacle! He is the most highly anticipated pitching prospect to debut since Stephen Strasburg – against whom he has drawn some strong comparisons.

Skenes has been lighting up radar guns in the minors while mixing in devastating breaking pitches and it will be interesting to see if he can transition that success to the bigs in the same way that Jones has. Potential that the Pirates have one of the base 1-2 punches in baseball pitching for them this weekend. Don’t miss it!

Let’s Go Bucs!