Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – NL Central Test

5-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates debuted their prized phenom pitcher, somehow won a game where they walked 10 hitters and miraculously scored 10 runs at the same time. I was there, sitting with Josh Booth from Bridge to Buctober and Ethan from Locked On Pirates, and I turned to Josh and said this team needs to win a game where the bats had to make it happen. That’s exactly what we got.

It happened while losing another series, against a mediocre division leader. Not good enough, but the bats are waking up, as the bullpen starts to slip.

Lets Go…

1. 6-Man Rotation?

Not for long. In fact, I’d be shocked to see it go through more than once. It’ll be used to get extra rest for everyone, and help the Pirates decide whether Bailey Falter goes to the pen while Quinn Priester sticks in the rotation or if Quinn goes back to AAA and Bailey stays in the rotation.

They can’t stick with it simply because they can’t survive with a shortened bullpen for more than a week or so. It’s a gimmick, not something they can ride with.

Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Martin Perez and one of those two other options we discussed will make up this rotation for the next stretch here and we’ll absolutely see some changes.

Bottom line, this rotation has to perform to an unfair level for this team to win. They haven’t hit, but they are showing signs of life and this staff should make it more about getting competent offense as opposed to asking them to carry the day most nights.

2. Roansy DFA

This move was on the table just about all season. I actually wasn’t convinced he should make it out of Spring.

We all remember being completely convinced he was a fixture in this rotation in 2022, even in the beginning of 2023 we thought he was a piece, but it became clear as the season played out that guys weren’t going to swing at unhittable pitches that weren’t ever going to hit the zone, and the fastball was only for show. The move to the pen brought out some more velo, seemed to find a few things but this team has better answers, and they made the move.

I believe he’ll be traded and no, it won’t be for some silly high ranking prospect you’re dreaming about, he’s been DFAd people.

It’s sad when guys don’t pan out, and I still think there’s an MLB pitcher in there, so I won’t be shocked to see him pop back up somewhere, but baseball isn’t designed to just let a guy beat his head off a wall with one organization. Out of options, out of time.

When you get to the point where you’re DFAing players who have potential but you no longer have time to try to mine it, you’re usually in a pretty good place. This isn’t the same as giving up on a player too early, this is a case of exhausting every available trick to keep him on the roster, every expert you could shove him under, all the attempts to put him in a good position to try to find it but not hurt the team.

3. Oneil Cruz Has Arrived

It took a solid month, but Oneil Cruz has shown up and he’s already made the offense look different in doing so. One guy hitting is rarely enough and he won’t be either, but pair him with Connor Joe and the Pirates have a couple guys going which could be enough to support this pitching staff more often.

They still need more, Hayes needs to get healthy and get back to swinging the way he can, the two are very much so related. Bryan Reynolds needs to get his left handed approach sorted, right handed he’s been deadly, left handed, a pretty consistent easy out. That doesn’t fly from your number 2 hitter.

It also looks like bouncing Cruz up and down the lineup is coming to an end as they’ve been sticking him right in the heart of the order, and he’s taking to it.

Oneil Cruz has been on a tear. In his past 7 games he’s hit .385 with 3 homeruns and an .846 SLG. Lefty’s or righties he’s had success and he’s not striking out anywhere close to his early season clip. It’s not just a small sample thing either, in his past 15 he’s hitting .320. There’s a lot to worry about with this offense, but Oneil Cruz hitting cures a lot of things that are sick.

4. Look, it’s a .500 Team

I get asked a lot why I’m not angry. It gets me labeled an apologist or an optimist, but in reality, it’s just my expectation for the 2024 Pirates. I thought they were a .500 team, and I think when all things are said and done this year, they’ll be in that ballpark.

.500 doesn’t look pretty. Some stretches it looks like they can’t beat anyone, some stretches it’ll look like they can’t be stopped.

I don’t get in to the whole year five scream fest because I don’t look at them with my own preconceived idea of how long it should take, or whatever, I look at it from the same perspective I had in 2019 when this started. A team that was going to try to build into competitive, then add to it and I think this is the year for onboarding kids.

They can win along the way if things fall right, but there was no way to avoid dealing with kids holding down important roles.

Could they have signed better veterans and made this a year where they win 85-90, sure, especially at a position like first base where they have nothing coming. Sadly though, the position stinks in baseball right now, there just aren’t a lot of long term options out there.

Henry Davis hasn’t hit at this level, at least not after his initial call, but look, if that kid isn’t a piece of all this by the end of the year, contributing, they lose a bat they considered to be a big piece. Sending him down was best for him, but bringing him back and having him contribute, that will be the most important thing that happens in 2024 offensively. It’s on them and him to make that matter, because heading into 2025, they can’t afford for him to be a big question. They owe it to themselves to find out for sure if Jack Suwinski is in or out. They need to think about how they want to fill first base and preferably internally, because again the free agent board looks like a Boras guy and a bunch of just about dead veterans.

Even trades to address first base aren’t plentiful. The very best thing this team has going for it is they have pitching. It’s the hardest thing to buy, it’s the hardest thing to develop, and they have it, so rightly money should be spend filling holes on offense.

They can win this year, they just need guys to perform at the plate, guys they thought would hit, have to hit. I personally think they will, I just think it all adds up to a slightly above .500 outcome.

5. There Will Be Changes

The Pirates are stubborn, but not so much that they’ll refuse to see evidence or make changes to the coaching staff. It’s just not going to come because you screamed louder.

It certainly isn’t going to come because you’ve convinced them that something is Derek Shelton’s fault that they know damn well isn’t.

Andy Haines won’t survive the season if Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, Davis and Jack Suwinski aren’t hitting. He won’t be blamed for Rowdy Tellez failing, or Jared Triolo’s BABIP flipping in the other direction. He won’t be crucified because Michael Taylor is hitting like Michael Taylor.

You can’t, and they can’t allow anything to not absolutely maximize their investments.

For me, this was last year where they should have recognized what was and wasn’t working with the hitting instruction, for them it’s clear they wanted another season. Stubborn, check. Keep him after all those guys underperform in 2024, and it goes from stubborn to insane.

Oscar Marin to me has done really well. He’s turned a bunch of veteran lefty arms into valuable starting pitchers. Unlocked Bailey Falter and turned him into a very serviceable starter. Turned a bunch of system guys into nice bullpen options.

Derek Shelton has the horses that were supposed to help them play competitive baseball this Summer and while I feel he’ll be here in 2025, I can see a world where this season goes bad enough to see them make a change.

My fear there would be a new coach wanting a new pitching coach and I would not change Marin, not with how his work product has looked.

There is accountability waiting for these guys, but you have to understand the structure of this management team to understand where most “blame” gets pointed. 2024 is the first time this GM has put a roster together that he on the record believes should win games. That should lead to the first season he looks at his on field management and judges what they do with it or looks himself in the mirror and says, I didn’t do enough and I was wrong.

He isn’t firing himself, and no, Bob Nutting isn’t firing him either, but the on field staff is very much so on the clock.