5-18-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
Before I start here, I don’t mean lefty-righty swaps, or changes to the roster or the occasional whacky Sunday lineup, I mean, more the seemingly purposeful avoidance of using the same lineup twice.
I follow analytics, not as closely as someone being paid to do so mind you, but close enough that one thing I know for sure is analytics aren’t demanding this. Not to this degree. The numbers change, but they don’t change so much so that you go out of your way to never even accidentally fall on the same lineup twice.
That’s just weird. Almost to the degree it has to be some kind of OCD to exist.
We all make jokes about it, we all know as sure as anything when we get today’s lineup it won’t only be different than yesterday, it’ll be different than it’s been all year long. They’ve barely made any position player swaps in the grand scheme of things, and somehow, someway, that lineup will be completely foreign to us.
There are times where Derek Shelton will stick a guy in a spot and not let go. Reynolds has been the number 2 for about as long as he’s been considered a starting outfielder. Hayes has hit 3rd stubbornly, or leadoff here and there. Cruz has lately been planted at 3 or 4. Cutch has lead off, hit cleanup, even third.
A little movement, a bit of change, some lineup shuffling, all completely normal. For the Pirates though, it’s become what feels like an inside joke none of us has a hope of ever getting.
The Pirates have played 46 games this season, and by my count, they’ve used 45 different lineups, only 1 has been repeated and it was during the Miami Series on opening weekend.
Again, I don’t expect a set lineup, they don’t have that kind of talent. Some guys simply shouldn’t face someone who pitches same side. But it seems to me they’d be a better team, and bluntly, get more useful data if they’d try narrowing it down to a set of two that at least serve as the starting points vs righties or lefties.
Of course analytics could tell you a guy has reverse splits or a history against someone and of course that’s the purview of the manager to make that call.
45 in 46 isn’t an accident, and analytics didn’t dictate it either. It’s silly.
Let me circle back to a point I made earlier about it providing “better data”, because I’m not sure that’s as intuitive as it needs to be.
The fewer number of variables there are in data, the more tested it is, the more you can trust it. Having less moving parts lets you get more granular when you look at your data.
Let’s take something stupid to illustrate. Because Bryan Reynolds never moves in the lineup from the 2 spot. All the data for who hits leadoff has the backing of Reynolds being the next bat.
Reynolds himself has a plethora of number 3 hitters who he was hitting in front of. His numbers are different for each one of them. They’re starting to look like they actually get impacted by having Oneil Cruz in the 3 spot. The 3 spot is one they have been more selective with which leads to bigger groupings of data for each instance and might actually lead to making a decision and sticking with it. Well, on a normal team anyway.
I think that’s all I’m calling for here, a bit of normalcy, a bit of trying to answer questions and build this thing out as successfully as you can with what you have to work with.
Let’s start learning more about the relationships these guys have to each other in the lineup and start locking in the pieces so we really understand fully exactly what we need. It’s hard to know what’s missing beyond the surface of replacing guys who aren’t performing.
More than anything, just stop acting like you have to always do it different. What works for the vast majority should probably trump what hasn’t worked for you in 4 seasons of trying to make it work. Try something different.
Well, different from what they’re doing…
So, normal.
Sometimes traditional wisdom is the best thing to trust. Everyone has that Mom and Dad were right moment, can Derek Shelton be ready for his yet? Please?
Steel City Pirates 