Projecting what the Pirates look like in five years

Projections are always interesting, specifically because so many factors come into play on how a Major League Baseball club builds their roster year-in and year-out, from injuries, your record and standing around the trade deadline and everything in between.

For the Pittsburgh Pirates, projecting what they look like five years from now, which would be 2029, sorry to make everyone feel old, is heavily influenced on what is already in the organization, and some of these may be a ton easier to project than otherwise thought in past years.

Certain position groups are definitely easier to project out that far than others, but I figured why not take a stab at what the Pirates could look like a half-decade from now at each position group, giving you, the reader, of what to expect through the farm and what contributors are sticking around for the long haul.

Starting Pitching

SP Paul Skenes, SP Jared Jones, SP Anthony Solometo, SP Thomas Harrington, SP Bubba Chandler

Notice something right off the bat from the starting pitching group? Oh yea, two of the five are in the current starting rotation right now, and should continue to be for a very long time.

Mitch Keller was signed to a five-year, $77 million extension prior to the beginning of the 2024, keeping him locked into Pittsburgh’s control until 2028, making him an UFA in 2029. Assuming mostly everything goes right for the Pirates in developing their top pitching talent, keeping a 33-year old starter around with controllable youth fighting for every pitch in the rotation may not make a ton of sense, especially with how starters are paid on the open market, yes, even in their mid-30s.

Paul Skenes and Jared Jones have flashed brilliance thus far in 2024, creating one of the funnest duos we’ve seen in quite some time from two top, young pitchers. Having both in the organization is a god-send of shorts, seeing as Pittsburgh doesn’t often seek out massive contracts for starters in free agency, i.e. the last paragraph, and both Skenes and Jones are under team control for a very long time due to pre-arbitration and arbitration contract structures that help teams like Pittsburgh keep their prospects around for the long haul.

Now Tommy John Surgery is likely looming for both at some point in the future and should be taken into account, but I would expect that they would both be well passed the rehab and recovery five years down the line and still playing at the top of their respective games.

Meanwhile, Anthony Solometo, currently Pittsburgh’s number four overall prospect via MLB Pipeline, has been a highly touted left-hander since being drafted over slot in the second round of the 2021 MLB Draft(thank you Henry Davis), and he continues to improve with each outing in the minor leagues.

His strikeout to walk rate is worrisome so far in 2024, with 15 strikeouts and 15 walks, but he remains a top-100 prospect for a reason and should continue to see his command and control improve, much like they did in 2023. Solometo, unlike Skenes and Jones, is not a fireball thrower, typically throwing in the 92-95mph range on his fastball, so injuries could avoid him across his career, and the Pirates haven’t had a left-handed prospect look as good as Solometo in quite some time. By 2029, Solometo should be fully involved as a rotation mainstay and become Pittsburgh’s dynamic left-handed option in the bullpen.

Thomas Harrington is a prospect that fascinates me, and he currently rounds out the top-five for Pittsburgh’s prospects on Pipeline.

A 2022 draftee, Harrington is only 22, but he has flashed some high potential in his time in the minors, having a career 3.28 ERA and having not allowed a run thus far in three starts in 2024. Harrington’s biggest positive and what separates him from some of the other pitchers that I considered slotting in the rotation this far into the future is his ability to throw four-five pitches confidently for strikes, and he’s done that quite a bit already.

Harrington features a plus-fastball, a curveball, which needs improvement, an above average slider, what I would consider an above average changeup and a cutter that he added in 2023 to compliment his fastball, so his pitch-mix will no doubt operate well at the big league level, its just a matter of applying it, which I more than think Harrington will do.

To round out the rotation, I went with Bubba Chandler, who recently landed on the IL with a forearm injury, something you never want to hear. His fastball tops out in the upper-90s, so much like Skenes and Jones, he’s power over finesse.

Chandler was a two-sport athlete who opted for baseball instead of heading to Clemson to play football, and if his minor league performance is any indication, he made the right decision. He already has 218 strikeouts in his minor league time compared to 97 walks, and while his fastball is the pitch to watch more often than not, what will get him to become a mainstay in the rotation by 2029 will be his secondary pitches, having a solid slider-curveball-changeup trio that can makes opposing pitchers look silly.

I always saw Chandler as a round one talent, and so did the Pirates, who nabbed him in the 2021 Draft over slot, again, thanks to Davis going under slot, and some consider him the third best pitcher in the system behind Skenes and Jones and honestly, I find that hard to argue. Being athletic sure helps Chandler, and that athleticism, paired with his pitch mix, will make him a formidable force in the rotation, especially five years from now when he’s more then acclimated to big league baseball.

Catcher

C Henry Davis, C Endy Rodriguez

Outside of what we’ve already seen come through the minor league system, I don’t exactly see much upside from the catcher position, seeing as Garret Forrester and Omar Alfonzo are the only catchers in the top-30, and Forrester isn’t primarily a catcher, and with both Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez having made their debuts already, expect them to be the duo for quite awhile.

Henry Davis became one of the fastest number one overall selections to debut in MLB history, but he’s had his struggles at the top-level, especially at the plate, having been sent down this season after immense struggles offensively.

It is important to keep in mind that Davis is still young and has yet to surpass 300 career at-bats at the MLB level(293), so he still has plenty of time to figure out his offensive shortcomings, and with his work ethic, I imagine he will eventually.

Unfortunately, we don’t get to see the duo of Davis and Endy Rodriguez this season due to an offseason procedure on Rodriguez’s elbow that will sideline him for the entirety of the 2024 season, so learning more about Rodriguez will have to wait until 2025.

Rodriguez, much like Davis, had his struggles offensively in 2023 and still has a ton to prove, but his upside suggest he’ll eventually overcome those struggles. Rodriguez also has the potential to move around the diamond, having played other positions in the minors, but I would expect him to stay behind the dish unless his arm can’t perform there, which would make the Pirates have to think outside the box on his defensive position.

First Base

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest

Yeah, let’s get wild for a second.

Yes, I know a ton of you want JJ Weatherholt in the upcoming MLB Draft, seeing as he is a Pittsburgh area native and plays collegiate ball at West Virginia and is regarded as one of the top hitters in the class, but hear me out for a second.

The Pirates first base situation in the minors isn’t much to be happy about, and although one of them could eventually emerge, I don’t see a ton of starter upside in any of them, sorry to be a debby-downer, even though I hope one emerges eventually.

Nick Kurtz is an interesting prospect in the upcoming MLB Draft for a multitude of reasons, seeing as he was recruited by Wake Forest to pitch but has ended up being one of the best bats in the nation at the collegiate level.

At 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, Kurtz absolutely obliterates the baseball with force from the left side, hitting 60 homers in his time with the Demon Deacons while slashing .336/.509/.731/1.241. And since it matters to some, Kurtz is a Lancaster, PA native, so there’s that too.

Kurtz is currently the fourth ranked prospect via MLB Pipeline behind Georgia’s Charlie Condon, Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and Florida’s Jac Caglianone, so its unknown if Pittsburgh will even have the opportunity to select Kurtz, but if they do, it would offer them the best first base prospect they’ve have in a very, very long time, and Kurtz, who I expect to be a fine professional player, would give Pittsburgh much needed consistency at first base, a position they haven’t had consistency with in what feels like forever.

Second Base

2B Termarr Johnson, 2B Nick Gonzales

You have probably heard me say nothing but good things for Termarr Johnson on Locked On Pirates, and I loved the selection when he was acquired in the 2022 MLB Draft at number four overall, and I still love the selection every bit as much as I did two years ago.

At 19 right now, Johnson is the highest ranked position prospect in the Pirates system, and with a hit tool that made scouts drool coming into that draft, its no shock that he sits number two, and when Paul Skenes graduates, likely number one.

Johnson was a shortstop in high school, but his 5-foot-8 frame suggested second base as his home professionally, and he’s done well since becoming a pro, flashing power and contact tools that are already considered above average, backed by a career .805 OPS at the lower levels along with 21 RBIs.

Don’t be shocked if Johnson gets a look later this year in a small stint, and he’ll most definitely be in the conversation to debut full-time at some point in 2025, and with his hit tool only likely to get better as he matures, he’ll handle second base for the Pirates for the long haul.

Having Nick Gonzales here isn’t a mistake either, and much like Johnson, his hit tool is what got him selected as a top-10 selection in the 2021 MLB Draft. Gonzales, much like the earlier mentioned Davis and Rodriguez, had his struggles in 2023, but he’s since tinkered with his batting stance to allow himself to drive the ball to all parts of the field, and we’ve seen that quite in a bit since he was called up from AAA just a little over a week ago.

If Gonzales continues to hit, he’ll continue to find playing time, even if that’s in a platoon role with Johnson down the line and as a backup third baseman, which will talk about shortly. The expectation is that the results will continue to come if Gonzales continues to mature and keep the strikeouts down, which he has, and having a Johnson, Gonzales platoon duo at second base five years from now sounds pretty damn fun.

Third Base

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B/SS Jack Brannigan

Back issues will bother Ke’Bryan Hayes throughout his entire career, but the talent he has cannot be denied.

Hayes was inked to an 8-year, $70-million deal in 2022, sparking two extensions for Bryan Reynolds and Keller in the years to follow, and that deal continues to be rather team friendly with what Hayes provides defensively.

Hayes secured his first of what is likely many Gold Glove awards last season while also bringing some offensive output as well. Before he was placed on the IL a few weeks ago, Hayes was still showing signs that the back-half of 2023 was no joke, although the back issues could have been apart of why his power diminished a bit.

If Hayes can stay relatively healthy despite his back issues, he should man the position until someone rips it away from him, and he is under team control until 2030(club option), so expect number 13 to be the number you see more often than not at the hot corner by 2029.

With those mentioned back issues, the Pirates will need a quality backup for Hayes in cases he is on the IL or out for an extended period of time, and the name that comes to mind immediately is Jack Brannigan.

Brannigan has been playing quite a bit of shortstop lately, but he profiles better as a third baseman in my eyes, and with a 70-grade arm tool, his defense at the position should eventually offer a small, but respectable drop-off from what Hayes offers.

Jared Triolo has been the third baseman for Hayes in his absences the past two seasons, but if the hit tool doesn’t come along, its hard to see Triolo sticking around long-term, especially five years long. Brannigan meanwhile, should bring both an above-average glove and at least average offense, backed by a career .834 OPS and 28 minor league homers.

I like Brannigan as a prospect a ton, so if he can continue to use his raw power and glove tools, he’d make a fine bench bat behind Hayes as a third baseman for the longterm future.

Shortstop

SS, Oneil Cruz, SS Tsung-Che Cheng

Like it or not defensively, but by 2029, I still expect Oneil Cruz to be playing shortstop for the Pirates.

Cruz is coming off an absent 2023 and has looked great the past couple of weeks, and as many of you know, his tools and ceiling are through the roof, making him a potential superstar in the making.

If Cruz continues to mash the baseball like we have seen him do since his debut in 2022, he has the potential to stamp himself among the best to wear a Pirates uniform, and he could be the conductor on the contending train from now until 2029, not much else to say on that front.

Meanwhile, Cruz will need a backup who is defensively inclined if his defense alone doesn’t improve, so enter Tsung-Che Cheng, who can do just that, and some.

Cheng has climbed all the way up to eighth on MLB Pipeline’s rankings among Pirates prospects, and for good reason, seeing as his above-average glove was complimented by some strong offense in 2023 that has carried over to 2024.

Cheng has struggled some at AA Altoona in 2024, but his newfound power from 2023 has carried over, as he sits with four homers in 110 ABs, just about the pace to reach his 13 homers from 2023.

It will all be about proving himself at the higher levels for Cheng, but his hit tool has the potential to be above-average and at worst average in my eyes, so slotting him in behind Cruz five years from now isn’t all surprising, especially seeing as his defense can handle the position and offer value, much like what we’ve seen from Alika Williams in small stints. Imagine those small stints from Williams all the time though, and that’s what you’re likely to get in Cheng as a great complimentary option at the shortstop position alongside Cruz.

Outfield

OF Bryan Reynolds, SS/OF Mitch Jebb, OF Lonnie White Jr.

Bryan Reynolds will continue to headline the outfield in 2029, seeing as he is under team control until 2032 with a club option in 2031.

Reynolds has been a steady presence offensively for the Pirates since arriving from San Francisco via the Andrew McCutchen trade, and assuming his offense stays steady throughout his entire career, there is absolutely no reason to see why the Pirates would go another route unless he was traded or falls off a cliff. Meanwhile, with what’s available in the system, you have to get a bit creative in finding his running mates.

I chose Mitch Jebb as the other corner outfielder, seeing as I think he will eventually move to the outfield with other pieces like Johnson, Brannigan and Cheng occupying most of the infield playing time that will be available.

Jebb is very far away, seeing as he was selected in last years draft as a more raw prospect out of Michigan State, but scouts suggest he’ll hit the ball quite a bit and with plus speed, he’ll become an above-average base stealer and that speed should allow him to make a move to the outfield rather easily.

Driven by line-drive contact, Jebb profiles as a perfect future lead-off hitter and set-up man, seeing as power will likely never have a major impact on his game. Pairing his speed and high contact rates together should place him in a good spot in the future, and placing him in the outfield mix would surely give him ample opportunities to impress and become a mainstay in front of the Clemente wall.

The outfield in 2029 is rounded out by another one of my favorite prospects, Lonnie White Jr.

White Jr. nearly went to Penn State to play football but eventually signed up for baseball instead, and recently, he’s had a good go of things. Profiling as Pittsburgh’s top, pure outfield prospect via MLB Pipeline(11th), he’s continued to use his athleticism to his advantage, stealing 22 bags since the beginning of 2023 while hitting 15 homers along the way. Injuries have stunted his progress as a prospect a bit, but when he’s healthy, White Jr. is very fun to watch.

With his 70-grade speed tool, I think he profiles well as a future center fielder in Pittsburgh, and if his bat continues to improve, he could turn himself into a five-tool player that Pirates fans would have a blast watching. Bringing up his power production would only solidify this projection, but even without that, White Jr. has the tools to be a solid outfielder at the highest level five years from now.

Synopsis

As you can see, I had to get creative at some positions and my hit rate on this list will likely be dismal, but it gives a good look at what’s to come for multiple years from the Pirates organization.

Future drafts, free agent acquisitions and trades will surely impact this list, but as I always say, the system offers a ton of optimism moving forward and the hope is that it can keep contending windows extended for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Hope you enjoyed the list and share your thoughts below.