5-25-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
It doesn’t always work.
In fact, it doesn’t work most of the time.
Young hitters with pedigree that make it to MLB and struggle like Nick Gonzales or Henry Davis get sent back to the minors all the time. We’ve even seen Jackson Holliday jump to the Bigs and struggle mightily, then struggle just as mightily on his demotion.
It’s hard to make the jump and in many cases, it’s really more about how a player handles the failure of their first chance and what they do with the instruction they receive about what’s missing.
I had a chance to talk to Pirates number one pick from 1995 Chad Hermansen on the Pirates Fan Forum a couple weeks ago. He’s an interesting guy to talk to on this subject for a few reasons, first of course being he was picked 10th overall in that draft, was seen as the heir apparent, seen as a special talent and then it just plain went bad in MLB.
He talked about how the communication on what he needed to fix left something to be desired, and how to actually go about making those changes was left to his imagination. Looking back on it, he felt he should have had more questions, even if he didn’t trust they’d have answers.
Well, Nick Gonzales had a similar experience. He too had some underlying issues his entire trip through the minors, but he also was talented enough to make it, and have the team get a look at just how big those warts might be at the MLB level.
When Nick was told he was being sent back down, he asked for specific things he needed to fix and he attacked them. When Nick was told he wasn’t making the team out of Spring, he asked what the team needed to see from him, and he attacked them.
K rate and Breaking pitch recognition were the answer after being demoted, and both are not only related, they’re often nearly impossible to change, at least to a degree that makes an impact.
I mean, if you look at a guy’s K rate in like Single A, ok, it’s early, maybe they’ll grow into it a bit. If you see it in AAA and after a trip to MLB, there’s a good chance the cement is kinda dried. You either have to just accept that’s what the dude is and take the production you can get, or you break up the cement, mix up a new batch and repour it, knowing it might not work and will absolutely take longer.
Nick improved both, in an offseason.
In 2023 his K% was 31.3% and everything he hit was a high fastball.
It’s only been 50 at bats in 2023, so you’d be fair if you claimed this was just the continuation of being hot in the minors. but the chart sure looks like he’s made some changes.
The K% is now at 24% and he’s hitting pitches all over the strike zone.
We have to see it play out more of course, but right now, it sure looks like a kid who took developmental critique and adjusted.
Now we’ll have to see what the league does to push back. If you look at where he’s being pitched, the plan hasn’t changed from 2023, meaning, he’s being pitched almost identically to what he saw and adjusted for. Is he the type who found a way to combat one problem only to be defeated by whatever they do next?
I’d say not likely. Especially since the best way to combat a guy who’s doing a good job wasting breaking pitches is to attack him up high, change his eye level, and that’s kinda playing into Nick’s best attributes, so, um, please?
That said, sometimes the adjustments made to combat an issue take away from previous strengths. It’s still a process, but it’s certainly gone in the right direction.
The Pirates have to have more of these prospects make the adjustments and matter when they do. Nick being Ben Cherington’s first selection is always going to make him the poster boy for how they develop, so in some ways, this is bigger than just one player figuring something out.
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