5-31-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN
We are just about a third of the way done with the 2024 MLB season and the Pittsburgh Pirates make their way north of the border to end the month of May and welcome the month of June as they face off with the Toronto Blue Jays in a three-game series.
The Pirates enter this series off the heels of a double-header split against the Detroit Tigers, which saw Jared Jones and Paul Skenes have very different outings against a Tigers team that the Blue Jays saw earlier in the week, losing three-of-four to the Tigers.
Toronto does enter this series coming off a series sweep over the Chicago White Sox, winning each game by two-runs or more. The Blue Jays have played the White Sox six times in the past week, winning five of those six games and six of their past 10.
The Pirates have a 5-5 record in their past 10 and an 11-12 record in the month of May, so game one of this series will determine if the Pirates can manage a .500 month. The Blue Jays will finish May under .500 no matter what, entering the May 31 series opener at 11-13.
Toronto has played .500 baseball at Roger’s Centre this season at 12-12, while Pittsburgh enters the series with a 14-15 record away from the North Shore.
Both teams enter on very similar trajectories as well as being very similar statistically, separated by mere decimals in batting average and on-base percentage. Pittsburgh and Toronto are also separated by four runs scored on the season and three homers on the year, so the records aren’t the only indication that this could be an evenly matched series.
The Blue Jays enter this series having won their last eight games versus the Pirates, all games in which the Pirates failed to score three or more runs. The Pirates last win versus the Blue Jays came on August 11, 2017, with the previous matchup between the teams coming May 7 last season, a 10-1 victory for the Blue Jays.
Toronto leads the all-time series 14-7, holding a 6-3 record all-time versus Pittsburgh.
05/31
Pirates – Bailey Falter(LHP) – 3-2, 58.1 IP, 2.86 ERA, 33 Ks/14 walks, 0.98 WHIP
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios(RHP) – 5-4, 67.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 53 Ks/18 walks, 1.10 WHIP
06/01
Pirates – Mitch Keller(RHP)– 6-3, 67.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 58 Ks/19 walks, 1.24 WHIP
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi(LHP) – 2-4, 61.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 61 Ks/13 walks, 1.20 WHIP
06/02
Pirates – TBD – Editor’s note – Likely to be Quinn Priester
Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt (RHP) – 5-6, 60.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 56 Ks/25 walks, 1.43 WHIP
Blue Jays: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had quite the 2024 campaign, posting an .801 OPS with 5 HR and 25 RBIs, but he has been as hot as he’s been all season coming into this series versus Pittsburgh. Guerrero Jr. is slugging .607 over his past seven games, including 3 RBIs on 11 hits. He also registered a walk in all three games in the Blue Jays previous series versus the Chicago White Sox, so he’ll be a tough out for the Pirates pitching staff.
Pirates: DH Andrew McCutchen
Andrew McCutchen had a slow start to 2024, but the month of May was more than kind to McCutchen, who registered six home runs and 12 RBIs over his past 30 games, including being a triple away from the cycle in the second-half of a double-header versus the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. An .843 OPS in May should be a nice springboard for McCutchen in his first series in June versus Toronto.
Blue Jays: OF Kevin Kiermaier
Kevin Kiermaier was once considered one of the better center fielders in baseball, but 2024 has not been kind to Kiermaier, who is sporting a .589 OPS and just one homer on the season. The last seven games haven’t been kind to Kiermaier either, as a .353 slugging and only two hits in 17 at-bats suggest Kiermaier’s struggles could continue against a strong Pirates starting rotation.
Pirates: OF Michael. A Taylor
Michael A. Taylor was a solid defensive addition to the Pirates outfield in the 2024 off-season, and his hot start with the bat was impressive, but he has since cooled off considerably offensively. Taylor is batting .111 over the past 15 days in nine games, dipping his season batting average to .203. Taylor has also been out of the lineup more often with the introduction of Ji-hwan Bae back to the big league roster, but one would like to see Taylor’s offensive production improve, although it’ll be a tough ask versus Toronto.
Key Injuries
Toronto Blue Jays:
1B Joey Votto: 7-day IL, RP Bowden Francis: 15-day IL, 1B Peyton Williams: 7-day IL, SP Yariel Rodriguez: 15-day IL, 2B T.J. Brock: 7-day IL
Pittsburgh Pirates:
C Joey Bart: 10-day IL, SP Martin Perez: 15-day IL
Who To Watch
The pitching staffs for both squads are an interesting watch here. Toronto’s staff enters with a 4.22 ERA while Pittsburgh’s enters with a 4.03, so this series could be a matter of which team’s offense finds success against the opposing starter and getting the game to the bullpens, both of which are in the bottom-five in baseball in ERA. That will likely be the determining factor, but both offense’s come in having success as of late, so watch the top players like Bryan Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero Jr and others to make the difference in this tightly contested inter-league matchup.
Steel City Pirates 